EFTA01784391.pdf

From: i on behalf of Seth Lloyd Sent: Wednesday, August 10, 2016 6:07 PM To: Jeffrey E. Subject: Re: That I don't know. I suspect =hat traffic fatalities are distributed according to Gaussian/bell shaped c=rve. Inspired by this conversation I'm going to wo=k out entropic forces in systems that have power law distributio=s, like the income distribution law. Off to the a=rport again, Seth On Wed, Aug 10, 2016 at 8:36 AM, Jeff=ey E. <[email protected] <mailto:[email protected]» wrote: why is the fatalaties on us roads virtuall= constant every year. ? faraday leibni= and aristotle did not have access to large statistics over ye=rs. these are the new tools <=iv class="HOEnZb"> On Tue, Aug 9, 2016 at 6:27 PM, Seth Lloyd wrote: 1. Yes this is 'reversion to the mean' and it definitely happens. =C2 This is the basis for what is called an entropic force (ru=ber bands as we discussed) 2. Absolutely: for lar=e numbers of particles, the entropy arguments give rise to macroscopic statistical quantities like temperature and pressure <=div> 3. Yes: and they don't obey the central limit theorem (they are non-Gaussian). As we discussed, there are lots of=potential reasons for this. The main one is that if there is =o restriction on the variance of a distribution the central limi= theorem doesn't apply and so you get power laws as in the P=reto law for income distribution. 4. I didn't=claim I described it well. I'd say one actor intentionall= hides some information that the other actor can't decrypt. =C2 That is, the first actor is trying to deceive the second in or=er to take advantage. Got to run give a=talk for Stewart Brand/Danny Hillis! Seth </=iv> On Tue, Aug 9= 2016 at 8:22 PM, jeffrey E. <[email protected] <mailto:jeeva=ation@gmailcom» wr=te: EFTA_R1_00105695 EFTA01784391  1,=C2 re flips. ordering is not my focus. my=focus is that the program that says. as you approach a I=rger number the total number of ones and zeros ( the fair coin flip ) , =AO should be 50/50/ it is the opposite=of information as that relates to the individual flips. , I ma=ntain that the distribution of flips may be described by skewing =AO . A force that leads to 50/ 50 2. =gain re heat. we cant say anything about indiv par=icles. but we can measure their overall temp and pressure 3= social distributions of talents and characteristics, =A0 seem to follow the same distribution for years. 4=C2 deception, relies on the concept of INTENTION. =AO not well desribed. On Tue, Aug 9, 2016 at 6:08 PM, Seth Lloyd =span dir="ltr" wrote: Dear Jeffrey, It was very fun talking with y=u the weekend before last. I have downloaded The Improvement of the=Mind and am reading. I feel my mind improving already ;-) </r.iv> The conversation and your ideas fit in closely with work I Hve been doing and am proposing to do. Maybe this i= not surprising because we've been talking about these topic= for years. I've been traveling around (Santa Fe, now in San Francisco, soon to be in Banff) and so have had time to think=/div> more about what we discussed. Here is a=succinct summary of my own take. I know yours is somewhat Information is a fundam=ntal quantity, measured in bits. Information can =e random, like the typical string of bits one gets by flipping a=coin 0101110110101000011 (I just flipped a coin and=let heads = 1 and tails = 0), or it can be ordered, like the=bit string 0000000000000000. There is = technical definition of order and randomness: a bit string is o=dered if there is a succinctly describable method, e.g., a short=computer program, for producing it. By contrast, a string=is random if the shortest program for producing it is the same l=ngth as the string itself. For example, the string consist=ng of a billion 0's can be produced by a short program: Prin= '0' 10^9 times. By contrast, the shortest program to=produce the string 0101110110101000011 is something 2 EFTA_R1_00105696 EFTA01784392 like: Print =101110110101000011. This way of defining order/randomness=is called algorithmic information. The interestin= thing about algorithmic information is that the short program c=n be hard to find. A string can look very random and stil= have a short program. For example, the first billion bit= of pi, written in binary, have a short program, but if I just g=ve you those bits, they would look statistically rand=m. This means that so far as we or any other info=mation processing system is concerned, order/randomness is subje=tive: some information can be ordered and non-random, but we may=not be able to recognize the underlying order, so we treat it as=random. That is, the order is cryptic: we don't know h=w to decode it. This crypticity is the key feature =or looking at both physical systems and human/social systems. Physical systems: =C2 In physical systems such as a gas of molecules, entrop= is the amount of information that is required to describe the u=derlying motions of those molecules. Because the mo=ecules are bouncing off each other in an essentially random way,=entropy is assumed to be random information. H=at is energy that is encumbered by entropy/randomness. The rando=ness makes it harder to take advantage of that energy. By contrast, free energy is energy where =he information required to describe how that energy is arranged =s ordered, not random. Free energy is energy we can take =dvantage of. Now come= the kicker: suppose that a system is actually ordered, but that=order is cryptic. If we can't decipher the orde=, we can't take advantage of it. =AO So whether energy is free or not depends on our abilityq=iv> to detect its underlying order. That is, the availabi=ity of energy depends on the computationall/decrypting ability o= whatever system (molecule, microbe, human) is trying to take ad=antage of that energy. Socia=/human interactions: =uman interactions are about the exchange of information, plus ot=er stuff (goods, services, money, etc.). Everything that is</=iv> exchanged brings with it the information that describes what is exchanged, what can be done with it, etc. So for examp=e, a US Treasury bond comes with the specification of its price =nd its future interest payments. A complex option =omes with the specification of what can be bought and sold when.=/div> 3 EFTA_R1_00105697 EFTA01784393  As a result, human in=eractions are awash in information. Different people are c=pable of decoding/decyphering that information in different ways= The ability to detect a pattern or order in information translates=/div> into the ability to take advantage of a social situation. = For example, the efficient market hypothesis states that f=uctuations in the prices of a given stock should be e=sentially random. But if you happen to possess some infor=ation that allows you to predice the future fluctuations of the =tock, then you can make money. =AO Similarly, to play into you ideas about deception, when two actors enter into a transaction, each presents the other with informa=ion about their obligations under the transaction. =ach actor looks at that information and judges whether the trans=ction will turn out to their own advantage. But because e=ch actor perceives different patterns in the information, they c=n come up with different evaluations of the future worth of the =ransaction. Deception=arises because one actor may hide a pattern in the revealed info=mation, a pattern that the other actor doesn't perceive, but=that makes the transaction more advantageous to the first actor. Talk some more? Yours, Seth =div> P.S. I'm sending more on this plus i=formation on how your gifts to my work over the last four years =ave been used. On Sun, Jul 31, 201= at 11:26 AM, Jeffrey E. <[email protected] <mailto:[email protected]> wrote:=br> Power, financial , physical , and its signal=ng Deception Probability music money distributions . derivation of the power law MOBJECTS=br> On Sun, Jul 31, 2016 at 11:10 AM, Seth Lloyd 4 EFTA_R1_00105698 EFTA01784394  Absolutely: cal= me on my cel Seth On Sun, Jul 31, 2016 at =1:02 AM, jeffrey E. <[email protected] <mailto:jeevacation@gm=il.com» wrote: alockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0 0 0 .8ex;border-left:1px=#ccc solid;padding-left:lex"> is now a good time to speak?=br> On Sun, Jul 31, 2016 at 10:57 AM, Seth Lloyd Dear Jeffrey, You have generously supported my research the last few ye=rs. The most recent Sl00K you donated two years ago was s=premely useful: because of the lack of restrictions on the gift, I was abl= to support visitors, students, and activities that can't be=supported by government grants. I'm writing t= see if you are interested in continuing the support. If you =ould support the research, that would be great. In=addition to looking for research support, I'm also looking for ways to=support a sabbatical for the academic year 2017-2018 (MIT only p=ys half my salary for the year). We have also tal=ed about me checking out MIT's willingness to accept additional donati=ns from you: would you like me to ask around? Onc= again, thank you so much for your support: as noted, it is exceptionally =ffective, and it means a lot to me. Please give me = ring if you'd like to discuss this </=iv> I hope that you are well and that our paths cross soon. =AO Any plans to show up in Cambridge? The last time=was very fun. Yours, Seth On Sun, Feb 7, 2016 at 11:22 AM, jeffrey E. &l=;jeevacation@gm=il.com <mailto:[email protected]> wrote: greatgreat 5 EFTA_R1_00105699 EFTA01784395  On Sun, Feb 7, 2016 at 11:21 AM, Seth Lloyd I can be at the insitute at 3 today if that works for you all ple=se note The information contained in this communication is conf=dential, may be attorney-client privileged, may constitute inside infor=ation, and is intended only for the use of the addressee. It is the pro=erty of LEE Unauthorized use, disclosure or copying of this commu=ication or any part thereof is strictly prohibited and may be unlawful.=lf you have received this communication in error, please notify us imme=iately by return e-mail or by e-mail to [email protected] <mailto:jeevacation@g=ail.com> , and destroy this =ommunication and all copies thereof, including all attachments. copyrig=t -all rights reserved =div dir="ltr"> please note =div>The information contained in this communication is confidential, ma= be attorney-client privileged, may constitute inside information, and =s intended only for the use of the addressee. It is the property of =EE Unauthorized use, disclosure or copying of this communication or =ny part thereof is strictly prohibited and may be unlawful. If you have=received this communication in error, please notify us immediately byreturn e-mail or by e- mail [email protected] <[email protected]> , and destroy this communicatio= and all copies thereof, including all attachments. copyright -all righ=s reserved =AO please note The information contained in this communication is<=r>confidential, may be attorney-client privileged, may 6 EFTA_R1_00105700 EFTA01784396  constitute insid= information, and is intended only for the use of the addressee. It is =he property of JEE Unauthorized use, disclosure or copying of thiscommunication or any part thereof is strictly prohibited and may be un=awful. If you have received this communication in error, please notify =s immediately by return e-mail or by e-mail to [email protected] <mailto:[email protected]> , and destro= this communication and all copies thereof, including all attachments. =opyright -all rights reserved =AO please note The information contained in this communication is<=r>confidential, may be attorney- client privileged, may constitute insid= information, and is intended only for the use of the addressee. It is =he property of JEE Unauthorized use, disclosure or copying of thiscommunication or any part thereof is strictly prohibited and may be un=awful. If you have received this communication in error, please notify =s immediately by return e-mail or by e-mail to [email protected] <mailto:[email protected]> , and destro= this communication and all copies thereof, including all attachments. =opyright -all rights reserved =AO please note The information contained in this communication is<=r>confidential, may be attorney- client privileged, may constitute insid= information, and is intended only for the use of the addressee. It is =he property of JEE Unauthorized use, disclosure or copying of thiscommunication or any part thereof is strictly prohibited and may be un=awful. If you have received this communication in error, please notify =s immediately by 7 EFTA_R1_00105701 EFTA01784397  return e-mail or by e-mail to [email protected] <mailto:[email protected]> , and destro= this communication and all copies thereof, including all attachments. =opyright -all rights reserved =AO please note The information contained in this communication is<=r>confidential, may be attorney-client privileged, may constitute insid= information, and is intended only for the use of the addressee. It is =he property of JEE Unauthorized use, disclosure or copying of thiscommunication or any part thereof is strictly prohibited and may be un=awful. If you have received this communication in error, please notify =s immediately by return e-mail or by e-mail to [email protected] <mailto:[email protected]> , and destro= this communication and all copies thereof, including all attachments. =opyright -all rights reserved 8 EFTA_R1_00105702 EFTA01784398