Re: Battleground Survey

podesta-emails 1,290 words email

P17 P19 V11 V16 P22

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I want to throw a methodological curveball into the mix after consulting with some folks. 1. I think we need to select off of the voter file instead of doing RDD. That will give us more ability to go deeper on the analysis later. 2. I think with the uncertainty around the Dem nominee we should drop the balance in the batteries--cut the Obama and HRC batteries. The effect of this will be to exaggerate McCain movement but it will also expose who the hardcore McCain supporters are--people sticking with him under the best of circumstances. So, the survey design would be something like this: opening Qs, McCain ballot and attributes, message and doubts batteries, closing ballot and attributes, demographic questions. This will save us time, money and it will exaggerate results--which is what we need since we didn't since big movements last time. We can also probably cut down to 800 sample across 20-22 mins. Unless there are strong objections from anybody I'd like to move forward with this. On Feb 7, 2008 9:48 PM, Andrew Baumann <[email protected]> wrote: > > > > > All, > > > > Attached please find the draft questionnaire for the battleground survey. > There are some notes in imbedded in red. Also please note that we have > tweaked some of the McCain messaging based on Stan's recommendations. > > > > We are currently scheduled to go into the field on Sunday. If we are to > keep to that schedule we need to have comments back by early afternoon > tomorrow. > > > > The ad is currently timed at 30.5 minutes so we will need to make some cuts. > > > > We had originally budgeted for this to be a 20 minute survey with a sample > size of N=1800, but that was assume two remaining candidates. We had this > budgeted at $85,500. In this survey we just have McCain but we are > splitting the attacks on him so we still need a relatively large sample. A > 25 minutes survey (which would keep us from having to cut 10 full minutes) > at N=1200 would cost $70,800. > > > > We could get to about 25 minutes with the following cuts: > > > > Cutting two attributes in the HRC/BHO attributes battery. > Splitting the McCain attributes so each respondent hears 6 > Cutting four items from the better jobs batteries (that compare BHO/HRC to > McCain on issues and attributes) > Cutting the re-ask of the better jobs batteries > Cutting the question on which attributes are most important (we can use > regression modeling to look at this anyway) > Cutting the questions on which economic issue and which accountability > issues are most important > > > > Or we can talk about other options. > > > > Andrew > > > > > > > > Andrew Baumann > > Analyst > > > > 10 G Street NE, Suite 500, Washington, DC 20002 > > Phone: 202 478 8300 / Fax: 202 478 8301 > > > > [email protected] > > www.greenbergresearch.com > > > > > > > > Delivered-To: [email protected] Received: by 10.101.70.11 with SMTP id x11cs387043ank; Fri, 8 Feb 2008 08:54:36 -0800 (PST) Received: by 10.143.33.19 with SMTP id l19mr7105643wfj.85.1202489675672; Fri, 08 Feb 2008 08:54:35 -0800 (PST) Received: by 10.142.216.21 with HTTP; Fri, 8 Feb 2008 08:54:35 -0800 (PST) Message-ID: <[email protected]> Date: Fri, 8 Feb 2008 11:54:35 -0500 From: "Tom Matzzie" <[email protected]> Reply-To: [email protected] Sender: [email protected] To: "Andrew Baumann" <[email protected]> Subject: Re: Battleground Survey CC: "Rebecca Buckwalter-Poza" <[email protected]>, "Ana Iparraguirre" <[email protected]>, "Bryan Fisher" <[email protected]>, "John Podesta" <[email protected]>, "Kristi Fuksa" <[email protected]>, "Paul Begala" <[email protected]>, "Stan Greenberg" <[email protected]>, "Susan McCue" <[email protected]>, "Tara McGuinness" <[email protected]>, ic2008 <[email protected]>, "Michael Gaffney" <[email protected]>, "Lori Lodes" <[email protected]> In-Reply-To: <[email protected]> MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=ISO-8859-1 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit Content-Disposition: inline References: <[email protected]> X-Google-Sender-Auth: 5911e0f7d16eb502 Hey, I want to throw a methodological curveball into the mix after consulting with some folks. 1. I think we need to select off of the voter file instead of doing RDD. That will give us more ability to go deeper on the analysis later. 2. I think with the uncertainty around the Dem nominee we should drop the balance in the batteries--cut the Obama and HRC batteries. The effect of this will be to exaggerate McCain movement but it will also expose who the hardcore McCain supporters are--people sticking with him under the best of circumstances. So, the survey design would be something like this: opening Qs, McCain ballot and attributes, message and doubts batteries, closing ballot and attributes, demographic questions. This will save us time, money and it will exaggerate results--which is what we need since we didn't since big movements last time. We can also probably cut down to 800 sample across 20-22 mins. Unless there are strong objections from anybody I'd like to move forward with this. On Feb 7, 2008 9:48 PM, Andrew Baumann <[email protected]> wrote: > > > > > All, > > > > Attached please find the draft questionnaire for the battleground survey. > There are some notes in imbedded in red. Also please note that we have > tweaked some of the McCain messaging based on Stan's recommendations. > > > > We are currently scheduled to go into the field on Sunday. If we are to > keep to that schedule we need to have comments back by early afternoon > tomorrow. > > > > The ad is currently timed at 30.5 minutes so we will need to make some cuts. > > > > We had originally budgeted for this to be a 20 minute survey with a sample > size of N=1800, but that was assume two remaining candidates. We had this > budgeted at $85,500. In this survey we just have McCain but we are > splitting the attacks on him so we still need a relatively large sample. A > 25 minutes survey (which would keep us from having to cut 10 full minutes) > at N=1200 would cost $70,800. > > > > We could get to about 25 minutes with the following cuts: > > > > Cutting two attributes in the HRC/BHO attributes battery. > Splitting the McCain attributes so each respondent hears 6 > Cutting four items from the better jobs batteries (that compare BHO/HRC to > McCain on issues and attributes) > Cutting the re-ask of the better jobs batteries > Cutting the question on which attributes are most important (we can use > regression modeling to look at this anyway) > Cutting the questions on which economic issue and which accountability > issues are most important > > > > Or we can talk about other options. > > > > Andrew > > > > > > > > Andrew Baumann > > Analyst > > > > 10 G Street NE, Suite 500, Washington, DC 20002 > > Phone: 202 478 8300 / Fax: 202 478 8301 > > > > [email protected] > > www.greenbergresearch.com > > > > > > > >