EFTA01367372.pdf

31 May 2015 Integrated Oil US Integrated Oils Malaysia Similar to the broader group of countries, near-term oil production growth in Malaysia will be driven by high levels of recent development activity amidst higher oil prices. Key to the near-term oil growth will be the contribution from recent deepwater discoveries off Sabah. In the longer-term we view a broadly mature exploration profile to fail to incentivize the investment level needed to sustain oil production (production from Kikeh is expected to peak in 2017). In our model, we see overall oil production in 2020 falling -50 mboe/d from 2015 levels. Figure 101 Malaysia Production Outlook. 2014-2020e Figure 102: Production by type (area chart of onshore vs. (Mb/d) !shallow vs. deepwater (Mbrd) 800 800 700 • 700 1 600 600 500 500 400 400 300 300 200 • 200 100 100 0 0 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 a Shallow water (Caw) wDeepwater (Cony) grease • Growth Bbls San. Darn Seat Nto IAnan. led Seurat Dena* Sn Mal hbotin* La Figure 103: Crude volume growth outlook by project [Figure 104: 2017 Production Swing (Bear vs. Bull) of -25 status (Mb/d) iMb/d 000 eoo , /00 rco I see 000 sm 000 101 200 2001 100 0 100 2014 2015 2010 2017 2016 2019 Daft somtOrmin at Onfiream Assaf 0 1. —I Sec mmUncier Developmat am1040able 0,444140ment swum, Oft 0 gat, 041ects •I14 • Indeane 4444400 One Owe Seep. DatIthe dint nnartanS, San Anna* teat MOW /4•444no0 164 Page 54 Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0058905 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00205089 EFTA01367372