Cincinnati Note

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<mailto:[email protected]> <http://www.greenbergresearch.com/> Tonight's groups in Cincinnati were composed of: *Women, older, non college, income under 50K, weak partisans; 5 of who voted for Bush. 4 Kerry, and 1 who voted for neither but leaned Democrat. *Men, Independents and Democrats who were either Undecided and warm towards McCain or weak McCain supporters. Seven of the ten men voted for Kerry in 2004. McCain's initial standing in tonight's groups was quite strong. The raw impressions participants brought to the groups were mostly positive and three major attributes stood out consistently. First, McCain was universally respected as a war hero and admired for his military service, sacrifice, and love of country. Second, participants saw McCain as an experienced and strong leader. And third, McCain was repeatedly applauded for being a straight talker who stands by his convictions, even if they are unpopular. Nothing here is a surprise, but when I went through all of the handouts the repetition was remarkable. The only universal concern that participants initially had about McCain was his age and health. Participants were not overly aware of McCain's hot temper, but it was raised in both groups. Some participants initially had questions about McCain's ability to bring change and some wondered if his policies would be a continuation of Bush. However, most did not make this conclusion on their own at the outset of the groups. It seems that McCain's brand (war hero, experience, straight talker) was so defined for these participants that they lacked clarity on his actual policies. Indeed, participants needed a push tonight to derive that McCain is not going to bring the change they seek and that he will continue the Bush agenda. On the economy, participants were extremely troubled by McCain's assertion that he doesn't understand the economy and the fundamentals are strong. This was true especially in the group of lower income women where many were struggling with rising costs and job losses. As we heard in the last Dcorps groups, these participants tonight were very concerned about the economic future but also angry about the economic disparity. That's why the hit on McCain defending his opposition to min wage by saying he had forgone a pay raise causing his own family hardships has potential. One woman said, "he doesn't have a clue what it is like to live on dollars for an hour." And another chimed in, "yeah, that's where economics comes in. Take a class." These participants think McCain is out of touch with their reality and therefore how can he improve their situation? In addition, they said that being president is not the time to "learn the ropes." Participants were mostly unforgiving about McCain's recent economic blunders. McCain may be a straight talker on the economy, but he is dead wrong. When it came to Iraq though, participants were a bit more willing to give McCain the benefit of the doubt. They mostly trusted his military expertise and also his commitment to America- there was this sense that he always does what is in the best interests of the country. But participants were concerned upon learning that McCain wants to continue the war and will keep the troops in Iraq indefinitely. The key here is that McCain wants to continue the war, though. Again, participants defended McCain with the 100 years attacks because they made a clear distinction between a US presence in Iraq and an active war. They were OK with a presence like Korea and actually thought it was important, but they were wary of continuing the war that includes fatalities and trillions being spent in Bagdad. (On a side note- the 1000 years figure is not credible. Must use 100 years). Participants were very receptive to the priorities hit, especially when they visualized their kids and grandkids fighting in Iraq and they think money is being wasted over in Iraq that could be used at home. The ads and the narrative attacks need to draw these conclusions for them, though. McCain may be a straight talker on Iraq, but he is dead wrong. Participants also found some of the facts that discredit the straight talker image altogether. From his flip flop on Bush tax cuts to immigration to abortion, participants were very surprised to learn that McCain has changed his position so drastically. In addition, both the hits on his ties to big oil and lobbyists were eye opening and disturbing to the group. As one participant said, "He has more baggage than I thought." Some of this also helps tie him to Bush. As one participant said, "He's [McCain] an oil man, that's his bread and butter and that's why he has an interest in these big oil companies over here, that's his interest, him and Bush." One by one, these facts mounted a case against the straight talker and muddled the image of him. At the end, more participants admitted that they really didn't know where McCain stood on a number of issues. *** Again, I apologize about the webcasting failure in the first group. For those of you who were planning to watch in the coming days, you will not be able to watch it online, but I have a DVD of both groups which I can get to you. The second group though is available for you to watch online right now. Let me know if you have any questions or suggestions for tomorrow night. thanks, Kristi