EFTA01388595.pdf

la October 2016 REITs US REIT 3016 Earnings Preview • Asking rates on renewals and new leases in 40 • Supply expectations for the balance of the year as well as for 2017 • Updated job growth outlook by metro • Development update on yield trends, land and construction costs. and construction lending • Regional trends: DC, Houston, NYC, LA. Western tech markets • Rent growth and construction outlook by asset quality (Class A vs. Class B) and market type (urban vs. suburban) • Most attractive use of capital in today's environment • Move-outs for home purchases vs. long term average • Consolidation/privatizations Figure .39. AVB's :',016 results preview AV8 3015 2018 3010 2018 Brings Actor Aetrr Aetusl DBe Cons Pre 30 Guide Post 30 Gala* DU Cons FFO/sh 52 02 Si 99 52 18 5211 58 26 - S8 46 58.38 58 33 Core PFC./5h. reported SI 93 52.03 52 08 SS 1358 33 SS 20 Operating taro Actual Actual Actual DB* Pro 30 Guido Post 30 Gilds DBe ss NOI growth. vhe 51% 50% 4 9% total 5.00% - 5 75% 5.45% total SS Revenue growth, y/y 54% 50% 4 1% total 4 25% - 4 75% 4 50% total SS Expense growth. Wy 64% 4.7% 25% total 2.00% - 2 75% 2.39% total Average SS Occupancy las musty reported/ 95.3% 95.5% 955% YNCh ias initially reported) -40bp -10sp 200p Average SS Rental Rate las initially reported) 52,400 52.417 yiy ch las initially reported) 58% 6.2% Note consensus estimates are based on ThomsonReuters compiled data as of 1W 4/16 Based on AVB's full year gu dance p ovided on 7/25, the implied SS revenue growth for 2HI6 is at +3.75%. We expect the slowdown vs. H16 to be gradual with 90bps of deceleration in 30 (DBe: +4.1%) followed by another 70bps in 4Q (DBe: +3.4%) • Update on West Coast markets, most notably softness in SF (new supply; increased concessions; slowing tech job growth) and resilience of demand in Seattle (job growth outlook vs. elevated construction) • Expect the East Coast update to focus on recovery in DC, weakness in NYC (new supply; muted high-paying job creation), and demand concerns in New England (job growth fell below expectations in 1H; increase in concessions) • Leasing progress at AVB's Willoughby SquarefAVA DoBro, Northstation, and West Hollywood development projects and an update on overall development pipeline trends • We don't expect any material changes to AVB's 2016 same store outlook, in light of EQR's recently reaffirmed 2016 SS revenue growth outlook • 3Q core FFO/sh guidance of $2.05-$2.11 (DBe: $2.08), 3Q FFO/sh guidance of $2.14-$2.20 (DBe: $2.18) Son aratiche Sark canary thee. Martian Page 16 Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0092236 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00238420 EFTA01388595