EFTA01459571.pdf

7 Global Equities All Eyes on Earnings Rolling Return: EAFE vs. U.S. International Post Fed Hike 2% 50.0% 4- International outperforming U.S. -----------------> First rate hike 0% 30.0% -2% -4% 10.0% 149 IAEA -6% 1. • 11 -10.0% -8% -30.0% -10% -12% -50.0% -14% 4---------- U.S. outperforming Intematbnat -70.0% -16% Dec-72 Jan-80 Feb-87 Mar-94 Apr-01 May-06 Jun-15 c'atsteAPIQVS3P22SZVRAR&M8g-'38?§Arirn,,,, MSCI EAFE (USD) vs SSP 500 (Rolling 3 YR Return Annualized) 500 Performance vs MSCI EAFE (USD) Historically, the performance of international Following the onset of a Fed tightening cycle, the equities relative to the U.S. has shifted in cycles. S&P 500 has historically underperformed the MSCI EAFE Index. In fact, the past five cycles that international equities outperformed U.S. equities lasted, on average, 3.4 years. On a rolling three year basis, the U.S. has been outperforming international equities for -6 years. Historically, the U.S. has outperformed for, on average, four years. Footnotes: Time period is considered a tightening cycle when the Fed raises rates three or more consecutive times. The tightening cycle is considered over at the last Footnotes: Data is monthly and as of December 2015. Price return only in USD. rate hike. # of clays is calendar days. Tightening cycles date back to 1970. Source: FactSet, Deutsche Bank Wealth Management Source PactSO, Detn,;:he Bank 9.1e'h Mana'aenient Deutsche Bank Wealth Mormgerneht 20 CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0 120069 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00266253 EFTA01459571