podesta_email_21184.txt

podesta-emails 7,629 words email

P17 P22 D6 V11 V15

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*[image: Inline image 1]* *Correct The Record Friday August 8, 2014 Morning Roundup:* *Headlines:* *Log Cabin Democrat opinion: Don Ernst: “Ernst: Hillary Clinton and education” <http://thecabin.net/interact/opinion/columns/2014-08-07/ernst-hillary-clinton-and-education#.U-SrT_ldV8F>* “Hillary’s pathway to success, through hard work and a deep devotion to the power of education to transform the world, started in Arkansas.” *Chicago Sun-Times blog: Politics Early & Often: “Luis Gutierrez throws his support behind Hillary Clinton in 2016” <http://politics.suntimes.com/article/washington/luis-gutierrez-throws-his-support-behind-hillary-clinton-2016/thu-08072014-234pm>* “The polls show an overwhelming amount of support for Hillary Clinton and now Rep. Luis Gutierrez, D-Ill., is ready to give her a boost as well.” *Politico: “Clinton pens Gillibrand book intro” <http://www.politico.com/story/2014/08/kirsten-gillibrand-book-hillary-clinton-109815.html>* “Hillary Clinton praises Kirsten Gillibrand as a ‘great senator’ and a ‘great friend’ in a foreword to the New York Democrat’s soon-to-be-published memoir, according to excerpts obtained by POLITICO.” *Politico: “Hillary Clinton: Answering sexism takes practice” <http://www.politico.com/story/2014/08/hillary-clinton-interview-with-glamour-109835.html>* “Hillary Clinton says it can take years of experience to learn how to deal with sexism, something she has learned the hard way.” *The Bookseller: “Print sales increase drives S&S rise” <http://www.thebookseller.com/news/print-sales-increase-drives-ss-rise.html>* “Among the publisher’s best-selling titles for the period were Hillary Clinton’s autobiography Hard Choices, and City of Heavenly Fire by Cassandra Clare.” *Bloomberg Businessweek: “Hillary Clinton, ‘Divergent’ Boost Publishers’ Profits” <http://www.businessweek.com/news/2014-08-07/hillary-clinton-divergent-boost-publishers-profits>* “Hillary Clinton and the post-apocalyptic teen thriller series ‘Divergent’ gave the book divisions of CBS Corp. (CBS:US) and News Corp. (NWSA:US) a boost as their respective broadcast and newspaper units struggled last quarter.” *Time: “Why Rand Paul Is Attacking Hillary Clinton” <http://time.com/3089204/rand-paul-hillary-clinton-2016/>* “But what matters at the moment is not accuracy, but political calculation and execution. And Paul is quickly establishing himself as the Republican Party’s preeminent basher of Hillary Clinton, a title that could bring him rewards over the coming months as the 2016 presidential race heats up.” *Philadelphia Inquirer: “'Let's make history': Local Dems hone pitch for 2016 convention” <http://www.philly.com/philly/news/politics/20140808__Let_s_make_history___Local_Dems_hone_pitch_for_2016_convention.html>* “Standing in a beer garden across from the Liberty Bell, the city's leaders vowed Thursday to lure the Democratic National Convention to Philadelphia and announced their slogan: ‘Let's make history again.’” *Christian Science Monitor blog: DC Decoder: “What is Bill's value to a Hillary Clinton campaign?” <http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/DC-Decoder/Decoder-Voices/2014/0807/What-is-Bill-s-value-to-a-Hillary-Clinton-campaign>* [Subtitle:] “Is there a relationship between how people view Bill Clinton and how they view Hillary? One data set suggests ‘yes,’ and that the relationship is significant.” *The Wire: “Whatever Happened to the Benghazi Select Committee?” <http://www.thewire.com/politics/2014/08/whatever-happened-to-the-benghazi-select-committee/375748/>* “Since each party named its members to the panel, however, we've heard barely a peep.” *The Weekly Standard: “Hillary Clinton’s Reputation” <http://www.weeklystandard.com/articles/hillary-clinton-s-reputation_802179.html?page=1>* “While the 2014 midterm election is still three months away, it looks as though the Republicans are set to do quite well. Still, Clinton’s continued polling strength cannot but cast a pall over GOP prospects for 2016.” *CNN: “Embattled Jon Corzine to host Ready for Hillary Hamptons fundraiser” <http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2014/08/07/embattled-jon-corzine-to-host-ready-for-hillary-hamptons-fundraiser/>* “Embattled former New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine, the man who was at the center of the $1.6 billion MF Global collapse, will be the co-host of a Ready for Hillary fundraiser in the Wainscott, New York later this month.” *Articles:* *Log Cabin Democrat opinion: Don Ernst: “Ernst: Hillary Clinton and education” <http://thecabin.net/interact/opinion/columns/2014-08-07/ernst-hillary-clinton-and-education#.U-SrT_ldV8F>* By Don Ernst, instructor of education policy at the University of Arkansas Clinton School of Public Service August 7, 2014, 11:28 a.m. EDT I’ve spent my entire career in the field of education. It is the great equalizer – the one thing that we can give our children that lasts for generations. I loved teaching and saw the impact of education on children’s lives. But I soon realized I could have a greater impact in the policy field, so I got a job in the governor’s office. I still remember the day when Governor Bill Clinton announced that his wife, Arkansas First Lady Hillary Rodham Clinton, would chair the 15-member Arkansas Blue Ribbon Commission that was authorized by The Quality Education Act of 1983 to completely overhaul the Arkansas public education system by improving standards of learning. The message sent to the citizens of Arkansas was very clear: This Governor took seriously the role of education in improving the lives of children and their families across the state. Governor Clinton was criticized by many who were holding fast to the past, those who knew well that Hillary would not rest until the work was done with high energy and a palpable devotion to the needs of Arkansas’ children and young people, especially those most marginalized by the lack of access to quality education. It is important to understand the context in which Hillary and the Commission started their work. In 1983 there were 365 school districts in Arkansas and according to the Arkansas Department of Education at the time: • 192 school districts offered no art classes • 187 school districts offered no chemistry classes and had no classroom labs • 167 school districts offered no physics classes • 118 school districts offered no advanced math classes • 163 school districts offered no foreign language classes Looking back today, it is almost incomprehensible that so many of Arkansas’s school children in 1983 were starting with such a severe disadvantage compared to those in other states. Because of the leadership of former Mississippi Governor William Winter, we in Arkansas could no longer express the standard axiom “thank God for Mississippi.” I remember vividly when Hillary presented the Commission’s final report to the Arkansas General Assembly. One of Governor Clinton’s most animated critics said, “I think we elected the wrong Clinton Governor.” The Commission established educational standards goals for the first time in the history of Arkansas’ public school system. Curriculum content guides were developed in partnership with scholars, teachers and parents. Each school district was required to offer music, art, foreign languages, advanced math and science, computer science, additional years of language arts, social studies, physical education and the practical arts. Class size was reduced to 20 in Kindergarten, to 23 in grades 1-3, and 25 in grades 4-6. Academic secondary classes were limited to 30 students per class. Sixth graders would be tested in Reading, Language Arts, Math, and Social Studies. Students who did not perform up to standards had to be supported by a special academic development plan that included an extended school day or year as appropriate. Additionally, students struggling were supported by additional counselors, a supportive alternative curriculum, and the use of other resources. The new standards were bold for their time and included proposals for global education and a student service requirement long before these ideas were popular. These details were important and set the stage for bipartisan efforts across the United States to improve the educational lives of our children. Republicans and Democrats alike joined an important educational bandwagon that helped establish the role of the modern governor in educational policy. Along with William Winter, Lamar Alexander, Jim Hunt, Tom Kean, Mike Castle and others, Governor Clinton – with the able guidance of Hillary – helped establish the notion of “education governor.” There is another part of this story that is important. Governor Clinton and Hillary took time to listen to the citizens of Arkansas, to engage them in the details and struggles of education inequality. Hearings were held in all 75 Arkansas counties. In many ways, it was the citizens of Arkansas who rose to the challenge of improving the educational lives of Arkansas children. Without the able leadership of the Governor and his wife, I am certain the outcomes would have been different. I certainly recognized very early that Hillary was brilliant and was devoted to improving the lives of children. It was no surprise to me that she would be one of the most able First Lady’s in United States’ history and later a Senator and Secretary of State — all accomplishments that easily fill a lifetime of great achievement. But for me, Hillary’s pathway to success, through hard work and a deep devotion to the power of education to transform the world, started in Arkansas. *Chicago Sun-Times blog: Politics Early & Often: “Luis Gutierrez throws his support behind Hillary Clinton in 2016” <http://politics.suntimes.com/article/washington/luis-gutierrez-throws-his-support-behind-hillary-clinton-2016/thu-08072014-234pm>* By Chad Merda August 7, 2014, 2:34 p.m. EDT The polls show an overwhelming amount of support for Hillary Clinton and now Rep. Luis Gutierrez, D-Ill., is ready to give her a boost as well. Gutierrez, who appeared on PoliticKING with Larry King, says Clinton has what it takes. “I will be happy to back Hillary Clinton, I think she has an astonishing background and a readiness," Gutierrez said. "If she’s ready, I’m ready for Hillary.” But he says we shouldn't get ahead of ourselves and assume she'll be the Democratic nominee. “We’re Democrats, so we like a good fight among ourselves, you know, I don’t think it should be a coronation," Gutierrez said. "I think in Democracy, the person that gets the most votes is the one that wins, but there should always be a contest for those votes.” During the interview, Gutierrez also weighed in on Ebola, saying it's wrong for Republicans to use use it as a scare tactic on the immigration battle. *Politico: “Clinton pens Gillibrand book intro” <http://www.politico.com/story/2014/08/kirsten-gillibrand-book-hillary-clinton-109815.html>* By Maggie Haberman August 7, 2014, 1:38 p.m. EDT Hillary Clinton praises Kirsten Gillibrand as a “great senator” and a “great friend” in a foreword to the New York Democrat’s soon-to-be-published memoir, according to excerpts obtained by POLITICO. The three-page foreword to “Off the Sidelines: Raise Your Voice, Change the World” symbolizes the link between Clinton, who served in the U.S. Senate from New York from 2000 through 2008, and Gillibrand, who was appointed to succeed her when Clinton became secretary of state in 2009. Both Clinton and Gillibrand have been particularly active in promoting women’s rights, and much of Gillibrand’s memoir deals with her role in that realm, including the issue of sexual assault in the military. “The first time I shook Kirsten Gillbrand’s hand, she looked me square in the eyes and said, ‘How can I help?’” Clinton writes. “I was running for Senate in New York and Kirsten wanted to do everything she could for the campaign. But there was more to it than that. Kirsten has built her whole life around the question ‘How can I help?’” Clinton adds: “Wherever there’s a problem to solve, a wrong to right, or a person in need, Kirsten rolls up her sleeves and gets to work. Staying on the sidelines just isn’t in her DNA. That’s been the story of her entire career — as a lawyer, then as a member of the U.S. House of Representatives, and now as a U.S. senator — and it’s the story of this book.” Clinton further describes the memoir as being about “a life shaped by a deep commitment to family, public service, and hard work — and a story that is far from finished. I hope it will serve as an inspiration to others, especially young women, and encourage them to follow Kirsten’s example. The health of our democracy depends on women as well as men stepping off the sidelines to participate — to vote, debate, organize, run for office, and lead.” The book is due out Sept. 9 and is being published by Random House. Gillibrand has a PAC, also called Off the Sidelines. Gillibrand is often mentioned as a potential presidential candidate. She has said she is not interested in running, but has publicly urged Clinton to do so in 2016. *Politico: “Hillary Clinton: Answering sexism takes practice” <http://www.politico.com/story/2014/08/hillary-clinton-interview-with-glamour-109835.html>* By Katie Glueck August 7, 2014, 10:23 p.m. EDT Hillary Clinton says it can take years of experience to learn how to deal with sexism, something she has learned the hard way. “This is not something that your average 25-year-old — well, let me talk about myself: me at 25 — would have either fully grasped or been able to respond to,” Clinton said in an excerpt of a conversation with Glamour magazine. The possible Democratic 2016 presidential front-runner recalled the “personal” attacks she said she faced when taking the LSAT, complete with hecklers charging: “You’re taking a place of a man who could maybe get drafted and die in Vietnam.” “We’re in a much better place than we were,” she said, but added that there’s more to be done. Clinton, whose supporters hope will be the first female president in U.S. history, has said that she saw sexism in the way then-candidate Barack Obama’s campaign treated her during the 2008 presidential primary. In the interview with Glamour, Clinton stressed the importance of knowing not just when but also how to react to sexism. ‘Now, sometimes when it is about me … you have to not just remain silent but try to figure out a proper response — again, though, not going to the place of anger and feeling sorry for yourself, because that kind of plays into the hands of the sexists,” she said. “It does take practice though[.]” While Clinton said she “generally” avoids responding to personal attacks, she noted that she has “responded if it’s about somebody else.” “Because if women in general are being degraded, are being dismissed,” she said, “then I can respond in a way that demonstrates I’m not taking it personally, but I’m really serious about rejecting that kind of behavior.” The full interview will hit newsstands Aug. 12. *The Bookseller: “Print sales increase drives S&S rise” <http://www.thebookseller.com/news/print-sales-increase-drives-ss-rise.html>* By Sarah Shaffi August 8, 2014 Simon & Schuster’s revenues increased by 11.6% to $211m for the second quarter of 2014, compared to the same period the year before, with the increase “driven by higher print book sales”. The publisher’s parent company CBS said that digital books represented “a significant portion of sales”, with 25% of total publishing revenues coming from digital sales in the three months to 30th June. Among the publisher’s best-selling titles for the period were Hillary Clinton’s autobiography Hard Choices, and City of Heavenly Fire by Cassandra Clare. OIBDA (operating income before depreciation and amortisation) was $24m, up 14% from $21 in the same period the year before. CBS said the increase was “driven by revenue growth, which was partially offset by higher royalty costs”. CBS said its total revenues were $3.19b for the second quarter of 2014, compaired to $3.37b in the same period the year before. *Bloomberg Businessweek: “Hillary Clinton, ‘Divergent’ Boost Publishers’ Profits” <http://www.businessweek.com/news/2014-08-07/hillary-clinton-divergent-boost-publishers-profits>* By Christopher Palmeri August 7, 2014 Hillary Clinton and the post-apocalyptic teen thriller series “Divergent” gave the book divisions of CBS Corp. (CBS:US) and News Corp. (NWSA:US) a boost as their respective broadcast and newspaper units struggled last quarter. Operating income at Simon & Schuster, the publishing arm of CBS, rose 15 percent to $23 million in the period ended June 30, buoyed by “Hard Choices,” Clinton’s memoir of her time as U.S. Secretary of State. HarperCollins, part of News Corp., posted a 50 percent increase in profit to $33 million, the biggest jump among the company’s five divisions, a gain attributed to the popular book series by Veronica Roth. Clinton’s memoir sold 191,000 hard copies in its first five weeks, according to Nielsen, and has been on the non-fiction bestseller list. Roth’s “Divergent” series, which was released as a movie by Lions Gate Entertainment Corp. in March, sold more than 19 million copies in News Corp.’s last fiscal year. CBS reported lower second-quarter net income as revenue and operating income declined amid a drop in advertising sales. News Corp., completing its first full year as a standalone company after splitting from Rupert Murdoch’s entertainment business last year, said sales in its news division, which publishes the Wall Street Journal, fell as advertising revenue weakened. *Time: “Why Rand Paul Is Attacking Hillary Clinton” <http://time.com/3089204/rand-paul-hillary-clinton-2016/>* By Michael Scherer August 7, 2014, 2:42 p.m. EDT [Subtitle:] Meet the GOP's top Hillary attack dog Some politicians attack in prose. Kentucky Republican Sen. Rand Paul can do it in poetry—with color, precision and language that’s hard to forget. Over the last week, he didn’t just blame Hillary Clinton for the current state of Libya, he said she created a “Jihadist wonderland” there. He didn’t just knock her for not fortifying the Benghazi embassy, he said she treated the place “as if it were Paris.” “While she was turning down request for security, she spent $650,000 on Facebook ads, trying to get more friends for the State Department,” he said. “They spent $700,000 on landscaping at the Brussels embassy. They spent $5 million on crystal glassware for the embassies around the world.” On Friday, he asked the crowd for a moment of silence, to pray for Clinton’s bank account. “Somebody must have been praying for her, because she’s now worth $100, $200 million,” he followed, deadpan. “I tell you, it was really tough giving those speeches.” Then on Tuesday, at an event for a fellow ophthalmologist running for Congress in Iowa City, offered his crowning rhetorical turn. “Hillary’s war in Libya, Hillary’s war in Syria,” he said. “None of this was ever approved by Congress.” Of course, all of these attacks were unfair, as political attacks tend to be. Hillary did not choose to bomb Libya, though she supported the policy, and she has broken from President Barack Obama on the strategy in Syria. There is no evidence the question of additional security for the Benghazi embassy ever rose to her desk at the State Department, her net worth includes her husband’s substantial earnings, and no one serious has ever suggested an actual connection between Belgian landscaping budgets and American security. But what matters at the moment is not accuracy, but political calculation and execution. And Paul is quickly establishing himself as the Republican Party’s preeminent basher of Hillary Clinton, a title that could bring him rewards over the coming months as the 2016 presidential race heats up. The strategy plays to two of Paul’s natural advantages in the current Republican field. He is not a sitting Governor, and therefore far more free to dip his tongue in the partisan mud. He is also running for President—albeit without an official campaign—on the idea that he can best distinguish himself from Clinton on key matters of foreign policy that are likely to resonate with independent and young voters. “There are definitely areas where Clinton has vulnerabilities that Rand is uniquely situated to attack,” said Tim Miller, who spends his days attacking Hillary Clinton for America Rising, an opposition research group. Other would-be Clinton challengers have, of course, tried to get on the Hillary-bashing bandwagon, but with lesser results. Florida Sen. Marco Rubio made an early splash by calling Clinton a “20th century candidate,” but most of his attacks have sounded more like Senate speeches than a sonnet. “If she’s going to run on her record as Secretary of State, she’s also going to have to answer for its massive failures,” he says. Texas Sen. Tex Cruz, meanwhile, remains more likely to focus his fire on Obama, or their joint efforts, than Hillary alone. “Internationally, the Obama-Clinton foreign policy is a disaster,” he says. Paul’s focus on Clinton clearly looks like a strategy to elevate himself early in the Republican field. Soon Republicans nationwide will pivot to focus on what may the central question of the Republican primary: Who can actually take on Hillary Clinton and win? As far back as February, Paul was already working on these credentials. He started by calling former President Bill Clinton a “sexual predator” in interviews. His point was that Democrats should be called to account for Clinton’s personal life if they wanted to claim to be champions of women. Those jabs were widely condemned as political malpractice, a misfire aimed at a popular former President for failures that were long ago digested by the public. “I’m not sure he has a strategy,” Karl Rove jabbed on Fox News. “Frankly, Rand Paul spending a lot of time talking about the mistakes of Bill Clinton does not look like a big agenda for the future of the country.” Paul never really let up. For weeks in February, he found himself in headlines pitted against the presumptive Democratic nominee. In a crowded field, he was in pole position—where he remains to this day. *Philadelphia Inquirer: “'Let's make history': Local Dems hone pitch for 2016 convention” <http://www.philly.com/philly/news/politics/20140808__Let_s_make_history___Local_Dems_hone_pitch_for_2016_convention.html>* By Peter Dobrin August 7, 2014, 9:01 p.m. EDT Standing in a beer garden across from the Liberty Bell, the city's leaders vowed Thursday to lure the Democratic National Convention to Philadelphia and announced their slogan: "Let's make history again." Ed Rendell, the former mayor and governor, would not say whether that was a sly reference to the candidate he supports - Democratic front-runner Hillary Rodham Clinton, who could be the first woman to win a major party's nomination for president. "You can work on figuring that out," he said with a smile. Rendell, Mayor Nutter, U.S. Rep. Robert Brady (D., Pa.), and others spoke at a kickoff event to anticipate next week's arrival of 18 national party officials charged with picking the 2016 convention locale. City officials will pull out all the stops Wednesday and Thursday when the Democratic National Committee's selection team comes to town. The City of Brotherly Love is one of five finalists. The team of DNC officials, with expertise in transportation, security, and other logistics, will stay at the Radisson Blu Warwick in Center City, which recently underwent a $20 million face-lift. Though their itinerary wasn't announced, they will have a packed schedule that includes stops at the Wells Fargo Center, the hoped-for convention site, as well as at hotels and tourist destinations such as Pat's King of Steaks. "They are going to see one of the most incredible cities," Nutter said, "and they are going to see sights you can't see anywhere else." He mentioned the bell and Independence Hall. The DNC's site selection committee plans to make its decision late this year or in early 2015. The nonprofit established to promote the event, Philadelphia 2016, plans to spend $900,000 between now and November in support of the city's bid. The committee, led by Rendell, has raised about $100,000, he said. If the city wins, then the big "ask" begins: Backers would need to raise upward of $50 million to cover costs of hosting the event. Rendell and Nutter have dismissed concerns about whether the city can plan for both the Catholic Church's World Meeting of Families in 2015, which officials hope Pope Francis will attend, and the DNC the following year. On Thursday, Rendell said: "We're a major-league city. We can handle one event, two events, three events." Along with Nutter, Rendell, and Brady, the city's longtime Democratic chairman, the crowd outside the recently opened Independence Beer Garden, where plans for the DNC visit were announced, included local Democrats such as City Council President Darrell L. Clarke, Councilwoman Marian B. Tasco, State Rep. Brian K. Sims, Montgomery County Commissioners Chairman Josh Shapiro, and at least two non-Democrats - Flyers chairman Ed Snider and John J. McNichol, president and CEO of the Pennsylvania Convention Center Authority. For many, Thursday's event amounted to déjà vu - reminiscent of the city's efforts nearly two decades ago to land a political convention, any political convention, for 2000. That effort started in 1996, when then-Mayor Rendell returned from the Democratic convention in Chicago determined to bring a convention here. Selling it strictly as a business development enterprise, Rendell and others vowed to pursue both parties equally and hustled hard for two years, forming a committee in December 1996. Both parties sent large entourages - part technical staff charged with the logistics of producing a major event, and part political people with hangers-on. The Democratic group was larger than the GOP committee. By contrast, the 18-member group coming to Philadelphia next week will be relatively small, but again with a mix of political people and technical staff. Efforts to market the city to them began last year. "We took the Republicans, we showed them a great time," Brady said Thursday, recalling the 2000 convention. "Now it's the Democratic time." The DNC selection committee has already visited two of the finalist cities - Birmingham, Ala., late last month, and Columbus, Ohio, on Wednesday. At the latter, the committee was treated to a rally of 1,000 people wearing T-shirts that read, "Get Your [picture of a donkey] to Columbus in 2016," and a tour of Ohio State University's football stadium, touted as a perfect spot for candidates' acceptance speeches. The committee plans to tour Brooklyn, N.Y., on Monday and Tuesday before coming here. Its final scheduled stop is Phoenix, on Sept. 10 and 11. Among Democratic politicos, Brooklyn is seen as Philadelphia's strongest rival. Before the news conference, Rendell joked that he'd poll the crowd about New York City's new mayor - "Who's a better mayor, Mike Nutter or Bill DeBlasio?" He predicted Nutter would win. Inside the beer garden, Rendell told customers grabbing beers and wings, "We will either get the convention, or Mayor Nutter will be thrown over the Ben Franklin Bridge." *Christian Science Monitor blog: DC Decoder: “What is Bill's value to a Hillary Clinton campaign?” <http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/DC-Decoder/Decoder-Voices/2014/0807/What-is-Bill-s-value-to-a-Hillary-Clinton-campaign>* By Jordan Ragusa August 7, 2014 [Subtitle:] Is there a relationship between how people view Bill Clinton and how they view Hillary? One data set suggests "yes," and that the relationship is significant. In presidential elections, relationships matter. For example, political scientists know that the relationship between economic conditions, the number of causalities in war, and the incumbent’s party affiliation explain the bulk of presidential election outcomes. In the 2016 presidential election, however, there is another “relationship” worth keeping an eye on. But rather than the correlation between two variables, this relationship is of the social variety. I’m referring, of course, to the marriage of Bill and Hillary Clinton. Pundits on the left claim that Bill Clinton is an asset to Hillary because he brings legions of faithful supporters and has a high approval rating. Pundits on the right claim that Bill Clinton is a liability because he reminds voters of the Clintons’ personal affairs. But when we strip this rhetoric down to its core, both sides are making the same empirical point: As goes Bill, so goes Hillary. But is it true? Are the Clinton’s’ “married” in the minds of voters such that the opinion of one affects opinions of the other? In the the first chart above, I plotted approval ratings from Gallup.com (here and here) and Pollster.com (here) from 1992 to 2014 and created smooth trend lines for both Clintons. According to the figure, the answer would seem to be very clearly “yes.” We can see that Bill’s approval rating moves up and down alongside Hillary’s approval rating. Surprised? No? Let’s get a little deeper into the data. For starters, two variables can move up and down together without being causally related. In fact, causal relationships are notoriously hard to identify in non-experimental data (see an old post of mine on the relationship between Nickleback, Herpes, and Obama’s vote share in 2012). Indeed, other factors could be causing the above patterns. In other words, it’s possible the above patterns are a “spurious relationship.” But also, the question here is about an individual-level relationship (what happens in the minds of voters). Inferring an individual-level relationship from aggregate data can lead to what’s known as an “ecological fallacy.” In short, we need better data. Fortunately, the American National Elections Studies (ANES) has been conducting surveys for every presidential election from 1948 to 2012. We can easily download the ANES data set and quickly produce some answers to this question. Let’s explore the relationship between opinions of Bill and Hillary Clinton in 2000. Respondents’ opinions are measured using a “feeling thermometer” where a score of “100” indicates the highest possible approval of the Clintons while a score of “0” indicates the lowest possible approval. A simple regression analysis will tell us if these two variables are indeed related and whether that relationship is statistically meaningful or not. The results are in the second chart above (scroll one frame to the right). I’ll skip the boring statistical details, but basically the regression model confirms what we see in the approval data. It would seem that that there is a very strong positive relationship between opinions of Bill and Hillary Clinton (indicated by the number 0.77 in the column “Coef”). We can also see that this relationship is statistically meaningful (indicated by the number 38.95 in the column “t”). In sum, as Bill’s approval goes up, Hillary’s increases, and as Bill’s approval goes down, Hillary’s declines as well. But what about all the “other factors” that could be causing opinions of both simultaneously? For example, perhaps both are caused by views of Democrats in general, raw party identification, or the performance of the economy. In the social sciences, we call these “control” variables. In the third chart above, I added five control variables (opinions of the Democratic Party, opinions of the economy, a respondent’s party identification, ideology, and gender). Among the control variables, Democrats, respondents with a favorable opinion of Democrats, and women all have higher opinions of Hillary Clinton. None of this is surprising, but again, it’s important to account for these relationships. But what’s most notable about the results is the magnitude of Bill’s effect. Indeed, from the above results we can quantify Bill’s value to Hillary’s campaign (as the title of this post suggests). In particular, because the coefficient on the “Bill” variable is 0.465, the model indicates that as Bill’s approval rating increases by 1 unit, Hillary’s approval increases by just under half in the same direction. So while it’s not a 1-to-1 relationship, Bill has a sizable effect on how people view Hillary. Moreover, we when look at the last column on the right (labeled “beta”), what we see is that Bill’s effect is larger in magnitude than any other variable in the model. So not only does Bill matter, but he matters quite a bit. Interested in one more model? Actually, you don’t have a choice. For some additional context on the magnitude of Bill and Hillary’s “statistical” relationship, I wanted to see what happened if we used the same model to predict opinions Al Gore. (See the fourth chart.) We would expect Bill Clinton to have an effect on Al Gore’s approval rating given that they shared the White House together (remember, these data were collected in 2000). And indeed, that’s what we see in the results. However, what’s notable is that the magnitude of this relationship has decreased by about 30 percent from what the same model predicts regarding Bill’s effect on Hillary (from 0.465 to 0.320). In short, the statistical relationship between Bill and Hillary’s approval ratings is larger in magnitude than the statistical relationship between Bill and his vice president. What’s the big takeaway? In short, yes, opinions of Bill Clinton seem to sway opinions of Hillary. While we can’t say definitively this is causal (for example, causality could go the other way, with opinions of Hillary could be affecting Bill’s), this relationship persists even when we control for various factors. Perhaps most importantly, the effect is surprisingly large in magnitude. It would seem that Hillary earns about a half increase or decrease in her approval rating for every 1 unit change in Bill’s approval rating. In the 2016 campaign, the so-called “Bill factor” would matter quite a lot. *The Wire: “Whatever Happened to the Benghazi Select Committee?” <http://www.thewire.com/politics/2014/08/whatever-happened-to-the-benghazi-select-committee/375748/>* By Russell Berman August 7, 2014, 4:20 p.m. EDT Friday will mark exactly three months since House Republicans, with great fanfare, voted to impanel the Select Committee on Benghazi – a tribunal charged with uncovering the truth behind the 2012 terrorist attack after five other congressional committees had apparently fallen short. Since each party named its members to the panel, however, we've heard barely a peep. After an initial photo-op, the 12-member committee led by Chairman Trey Gowdy (R-S.C.), has held no public hearings. It has issued no reports, and the only two public statements of any kind it has released have been to disclose that it received a pair of classified briefings. The radio silence is by design, Republicans say. Gowdy spent the first weeks after his appointment by Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) insisting that Democrats were wrong in their predictions that the committee would be nothing more than political theater, a show trial timed to fire up a conservative base full of conspiracy theorists right before the November elections. By not rushing to hold hearings, Gowdy can demonstrate that he's taking his time and not creating a campaign spectacle. "There's no frustration," said an aide to one Republican member of the panel. "It's good that it's a deliberate process and not a flash in the pan." While the House set an initial budget of $3.3 million for the investigation, it gave the committee no deadline, and Gowdy has said it will definitely go into the next Congress, which begins in January. Gowdy, who was unavailable for an interview Thursday, told a South Carolina newspaper, the Greenville News, earlier this week that the committee would hold its first public hearing in September after the House returns from its August recess. The lawmakers plan to hear testimony about security improvements the State Department has made since the attack that killed four Americans on Sept. 11, 2012. The former federal prosecutor said the committee was hearing from witnesses who had not cooperated with the other Benghazi investigations, a development he attributed to his impartial approach. “I know I’m biased, but one of the good parts about running an investigation in a way that appears to be serious-minded is that witnesses who were previously unavailable or not interested in cooperating are now interested in cooperating. The universe of witnesses is expanding.” The panel's slow start also was a function of bureaucratic delays; it took time to secure office space, hire staff and obtain security clearances. While members are not meeting while Congress it out of town, the staff that has been hired will be working on the investigation, Gowdy told the Greenville News. While Democrats on the panel have not criticized Gowdy, the party has kept up its claims that the select committee is unnecessary and a waste of its $3.3 million taxpayer-funded budget. They renewed those cries last week when the G.O.P.-led House Intelligence Committee declassified a report finding there was no deliberate wrongdoing by the Obama administration during the Benghazi attack. The top Democrat on the Benghazi committee, Rep. Elijah Cummings (Md.), issued a statement arguing that the new report once again demonstrates the futility of Boehner's decision to launch a new investigation. “The Benghazi Select Committee was created more than two months ago, but Republican committee chairmen who were passed over continue to hold their own hearings, release their own transcripts, and issue their own reports—achieving exactly the opposite result Speaker Boehner promised when he created the Select Committee and authorized its $3.3 million budget.” And Josh Schwerin, a spokesman for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, suggested in a statement to The Wire that Republicans only want to push their Benghazi hearings closer to November. “House Republicans are still planning on spending millions of taxpayer dollars to ‘investigate’ claims that have already been debunked – by two Republican-led congressional committees in the past three months. The only thing that this pace shows is that House Republicans took time off to sue the president and want their hearings to be closer to election day to fire up their Tea Party base.” Though Democrats have yet to complain about the panel's pace, some conservatives appearing to be chafing at the fact that Benghazi has faded from the headline. A group on Facebook has gone so far as to change their middle names to "Benghazi." *The Weekly Standard: “Hillary Clinton’s Reputation” <http://www.weeklystandard.com/articles/hillary-clinton-s-reputation_802179.html?page=1>* By Jay Cost August 18, 2014 The rollout of Hillary Clinton’s new memoirs, Hard Choices, was not a resounding success for the former secretary of state. She stuck her foot in her mouth regarding her family’s vast fortune. She had trouble answering questions about her evolution on gay marriage. Critics, on the whole, found the book tired and shopworn. Yet her poll numbers remain surprisingly solid. Surveys conducted by Quinnipiac University, Fox News, and Rasmussen Reports—all taken since the book’s release—show her with comfortable leads nationally over Rand Paul, Chris Christie, and Jeb Bush. A mid-July CNN poll shows her with generally strong favorable ratings, although not as positive as they were when she wrapped up her tenure at State. Even so, respondents said they thought her to be a “strong and decisive leader” who “generally agrees” with them on the issues, can “manage the government effectively,” and “cares about people” like them. What lessons are there to draw from these numbers? The first, and probably most obvious, is the disconnect between the political class and the greater public. Clinton’s book rollout was a disaster among politicos and cable news obsessives, but people who do not dedicate inordinate time to politics and policy hardly seemed to notice. While this might be disappointing for conservatives, who would like to see Clinton’s numbers brought back to Earth, it is nevertheless a good reminder that what matters in the Beltway does not necessarily play in Peoria. The second lesson becomes apparent when we think of Clinton’s numbers in terms of Weekly Standard online editor Daniel Halper’s new book, Clinton, Inc. As Halper shows quite clearly, the Clintons are obsessed with brand management and have become exceedingly skilled at maintaining the improved reputation they have developed since the dark days of the Lewinsky scandal. This reputation is not going to fall apart simply because of a bad book rollout. The collapse of the Barack Obama foreign policy—of which Clinton was an integral part—apparently has done little to diminish it. Even Benghazi has hardly made a dent. While the 2014 midterm election is still three months away, it looks as though the Republicans are set to do quite well. Still, Clinton’s continued polling strength cannot but cast a pall over GOP prospects for 2016. Republicans hope that a faltering Barack Obama will damage Hillary Clinton’s presidential chances. It’s true that unpopular presidents generally drag down their successor nominees. John McCain was hurt by George W. Bush, Hubert Humphrey by Lyndon Johnson, Adlai Stevenson by Harry Truman, James M. Cox by Woodrow Wilson. But Clinton has something that McCain, Humphrey, Stevenson, and Cox all lacked: a national reputation built over a quarter-century of assiduous brand management. The early signs of the 2016 Clinton campaign suggest a subtle break with Obama that will reinforce her unique identity. Writing for the New Republic, Anne Applebaum took a careful read of Hard Choices as a piece of early campaign literature and concluded that Hillary Clinton is planning to run a campaign akin to Richard Nixon’s 1968 “man in the arena” strategy. She is battle-tested, experienced, ready to make the hard sacrifices for the country, and above all somebody who can be counted upon: “Clinton hopes to be . . . deeply non-ideological, a centrist. She intends to run as a hard-working, fact-oriented pragmatist—someone who finds ways to work with difficult opponents, and not only faces up to difficult problems but also makes the compromises needed to solve them. Again and again she portrays herself sitting across the table from Dai Bingguo or President Putin, working hard, searching for a way forward. Similar methods, presumably, can be applied to the Republican leadership.” he problem for Republicans here is stark: They have run a campaign like this for the last half-century. It has met with little success in the last 20 years, and it has never worked against the Clintons; Hillary Clinton’s numbers suggest she would be able to “sell” the public on this problem-solving image better than the GOP nominee could. Given a choice between a Republican and a Clinton offering basically the same thing, there is little reason to believe that the country will select the Republican. Nor, for that matter, can Republicans rest on their oars and assume that Obama’s sinking reputation will pull Hillary Clinton down as well. After all, it hasn’t yet. What, then, is the best response for the GOP? It is simply this: The party must wrap itself unabashedly in the garb of reform. If Hillary Clinton offers herself as the wise and learned hand who will rely upon her decades of experience to guide the ship of state, Republicans have to argue that her experience is exactly what the country doesn’t need at this moment. They need to convince the public that, by being in Washington for the last quarter-century, she is too committed to a broken status quo that is in desperate need of change. The party then needs to lay out a credible and salable agenda for that change. This should sound familiar, for it is how Barack Obama defeated Hillary Clinton in 2008. A message of reform resonated six years ago, and it could very well resonate again (so long as it is carried by somebody other than Obama!). Now as then, the country is tired and frustrated with the status quo. The people appear to want a change in course. Granted, this is unfamiliar territory for the Republican party. From Dwight Eisenhower to Nixon to Gerald Ford to George H. W. Bush to Bob Dole to George W. Bush to McCain to Mitt Romney, “fresh and new” are not its calling cards! Only Barry Goldwater and Ronald Reagan broke with tradition, and only Reagan was a political success. The party is more comfortable offering a “Return to Normalcy,” even if the country doesn’t want normalcy. If Hillary Clinton offers a Return to Normalcy in 2016, it is a fair bet that the GOP will not be able to beat her by competing on the same terrain. Instead, Republicans should focus assiduously on maximizing their gains in this midterm election, take a few weeks to enjoy (hopefully) their victory, and then have a serious conversation about exactly what kind of change they want to offer the country in 2016. For that appears to be the best—perhaps the only—way to beat Hillary Clinton. *CNN: “Embattled Jon Corzine to host Ready for Hillary Hamptons fundraiser” <http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2014/08/07/embattled-jon-corzine-to-host-ready-for-hillary-hamptons-fundraiser/>* By Dan Merica August 7, 2014, 3:46 p.m. EDT Embattled former New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine, the man who was at the center of the $1.6 billion MF Global collapse, will be the co-host of a Ready for Hillary fundraiser in the Wainscott, New York later this month. Corzine will co-sponsor the event along with special guests David Brock, the head of Correct the Record, a pro-Clinton messaging and rapid response group; actress Ashley Judd and Craig Smith, a longtime Clinton friend and Ready for Hillary senior adviser. The U.S. government sued Corzine in 2013 for his role in the collapse of the company. The suit alleged that Corzine drove the company into the ground and was aware of its paltry cash balance. Corzine denied any wrongdoing in the case, but has laid low since a bankruptcy judge approved a plan in November 2013 to repay the company's 26,000 customers. Since then, the former New Jersey senator and governor has played a behind the scenes role in politics. In 2012, he was a sizable bundler for President Barack Obama. America Rising, an anti-Clinton super PAC and research organization, seized on the news of the event and highlighted the fact that Ready for Hillary – a group urging Clinton to run for president in 2016 – are teaming up with the somewhat toxic Corzine. "Not Even Scandal-Plagued Jon Corzine Is Too Sleazy For The Clintons To Cash In On," wrote Tim Miller, the group's executive director, in an email to reporters. "Just like the Clintons, Ready For Hillary will take money from anyone," Miller wrote. A Ready for Hillary official confirmed the event, which was first reported by the New York Daily News, but would not comment on Corzine's involvement. The event is billed as "a dinner discussion about the work being done to lay the foundation for a potential Hillary Clinton presidential campaign." The event is being by Dan and Brooke Neidich, well known philanthropists in New York. *Calendar:* *Sec. Clinton's upcoming appearances as reported online. Not an official schedule.* · August 9 – Water Mill, NY: Sec. Clinton fundraises for the Clinton Foundation at the home of George and Joan Hornig (WSJ <http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2014/06/17/for-50000-best-dinner-seats-with-the-clintons-in-the-hamptons/> ) · August 13 – Martha’s Vinyard, MA: Sec. Clinton signs books at Bunch of Grapes (HillaryClintonMemoir.com <http://www.hillaryclintonmemoir.com/martha_s_vineyard_book_signing>) · August 16 – East Hampton, New York: Sec. Clinton signs books at Bookhampton East Hampton (HillaryClintonMemoir.com <http://www.hillaryclintonmemoir.com/long_island_book_signing2>) · August 28 – San Francisco, CA: Sec. Clinton keynotes Nexenta’s OpenSDx Summit (BusinessWire <http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20140702005709/en/Secretary-State-Hillary-Rodham-Clinton-Deliver-Keynote#.U7QoafldV8E> ) · September 4 – Las Vegas, NV: Sec. Clinton speaks at the National Clean Energy Summit (Solar Novis Today <http://www.solarnovus.com/hillary-rodham-clinto-to-deliver-keynote-at-national-clean-energy-summit-7-0_N7646.html> ) · October 2 – Miami Beach, FL: Sec. Clinton keynotes the CREW Network Convention & Marketplace (CREW Network <http://events.crewnetwork.org/2014convention/>) · October 13 – Las Vegas, NV: Sec. Clinton keynotes the UNLV Foundation Annual Dinner (UNLV <http://www.unlv.edu/event/unlv-foundation-annual-dinner?delta=0>) · ~ October 13-16 – San Francisco, CA: Sec. Clinton keynotes salesforce.com Dreamforce conference (salesforce.com <http://www.salesforce.com/dreamforce/DF14/keynotes.jsp>) · December 4 – Boston, MA: Sec. Clinton speaks at the Massachusetts Conference for Women (MCFW <http://www.maconferenceforwomen.org/speakers/>)