EFTA01451358.pdf

Vinit Vinit Sahni Managing Director I Global Head - Professional Orient Group Si Key Client Partners Capital Markets Drool) Deutsche Asset 8 Wealth Mane ement on on nit Tel. Mobil Email My proposed ideas are being delivered to you by the DeAWM Key Client Partners ("KCP-) London desk for discussion purposes only, and do not create any legally balding obligation on the part of Deutsche Bank AG and for its affiliates ("DB"). These ideas are for the consideration of the intended recipients of this mail only. The KCP London desk does not provide investment advice. All Intended recipients are Professional investors (as defined by MiFiD). vibe understand the strategy. characteristics and risks associated with any ideas proposed herein and will be able to evaluate it independently. Al trades on proposed ideas shall be subject to the relevant internal approvals pier to execution. Peknekv-ityl2eeprobt Rem: Jeffrey Epeteinir aLeem, To: Veit Sahni/tly adc: 1401..201410:18 Subsa. Re: leffiey • McKie', .--- MOON() 30y loo& interesting IC) agreed lets do 3m On Tue, Jan 14, 2014 at 4:23 AM, Vinit Sahni < wrote: Classification: Confidential Jeffrey - was looking for value in the EM space, post the PDVSA analysis, started looking at Mexico... here is a trade I think makes sense -> buying MBONO 30y unhedged At around 7.5% yield, inflation probably in the 3-4% in the foreseeable future, and USD/MXN likely stable or stronger in real (deflated) terms, I think it is good value. The curve is steep. If you look at 10Y10Y UST and 10Y10Y MXN yields, the spread is above 500bp . Say inflation differential is 100bp higher in Mex and credit diff is 100bp (10Y CDS is about 100bp higher in Mexico although Mex has much better debt dyn), this still leaves about 300bp of cushion for real depreciation per year...In sum, it seems good value near term mark to market risk is slower pace of implementation of energy reform and a selloff in USTs happy to discuss further if u find interesting... CONFIDENTIAL — PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0 107877 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00254061 EFTA01451358