EFTA01446696.pdf

Jeffrey - was looking for value in the EM space, post the PDVSA analysis, started looking at Mexico... here is a trade I think makes sense -> buying MBONO 30y unhedged At around 7.5% yield, inflation probably in the 3-4% in the foreseeable future, and USD/MXN likely stable or stronger in real (deflated) terms, I think it is good value. The curve is steep. If you look at 10Y10Y UST and 10Y10Y MXN yields, the spread is above 500bp . Say inflation differential is 100bp higher in Mex and credit diff is 100bp (10Y CDS is about 100bp higher in Mexico although Mex has much better debt dyn), this still leaves about 300bp of cushion for real depreciation per year...ln sum, it seems good value near term mark to market risk is slower pace of implementation of energy reform and a selloff in USTs happy to discuss further if u find interesting... r1B0N0 7 34 11/13/42 +.000 18 Apr 103.4_38 Atil 95) Save As 99 Actions - 97) Edit - 9!) Table Yield Chart 04119/2012 01114/2014 Mid UN .• MaLowerthart "r1:3" :alb • (;< M ► GEM so 7 030 ►6 500 ►6 500 mid Yield To Maturity 7.504 high on 12/04/13 7.836 0.5 503 . -r Average 6.740 L I Low on 05/02/13 5.313 'tun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec 2012 2013 2014 Australia 61 2 9777 8600 Brazil 5511 3048 4500 Europe 44 20 7330 7500 Germany 49 69 9204 1210 Hong Kong 852 2977 6000 Japan 81 3 3201 8900 Singapore 65 6212 1000 U.S. 1 212 318 2000 Copyright 2014 Bloomberg Finance L.P. SN 812523 EST GMT-5 . 00 H376-306-2 I4-Jon-2014 03 04 41 CNYMXN chart courtesy Nav Gupta (shows relative value in Labour cost between China and Mexico) CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0 101017 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00247201 EFTA01446696