EFTA01809947.pdf

IPI INTERNATIONAL PEACE INSTITUTE Monday. June 4, 12 Ladies and Gentlemen, good morning. IPI is dedicated to promoting the prevention and settlement of conflict by strengthening multilateral institutions. It sees peace and security as prerequisites for poverty eradication and development. Since 2008, at IPI we have been keeping a close eye on global trends that affect these fields in which we work. We have done this particularly with our program Coping with Crisis, Conflict, and Change. EFTA_R1_00170182 EFTA01809947  Global Trends and Crises Monday, June 4, 12 Today, I would like to focus on two themes. First of all, I will highlight a few main global trends and crises of our times. Second, I will present data specific to the Middle East and North Africa. The reason, of course, is that this is a region affected by sweeping changes that also have global implications. Let me begin with global trends and crises. EFTA_R1_00170183 EFTA01809948  Demography Environment Technology Economic Power Social Tensions Geopolitical Balance Monday, June 4, 12 We have identified six mega-trends, for lack of a better word, that are creating massive changes. Namely: "World demography," "Pressures on the Environment," "Technological Innovation," "Shifts in Economic Power," "Social Tensions," and "Shifts in the Geopolitical Balance." These mega-trends are transforming the conduct of world affairs as we speak. States and multilateral organizations are struggling to come to grips with these changes on a daily basis. The first mega-trend is demography. EFTA_R1_00170184 EFTA01809949  People People 11 People • 1900 Demographic Shifts Population per square km Monday, June 4, 12 I would like to emphasize three of many vital demographic changes. First: the dramatic increase in world population over the last 100 years is creating unprecedented challenges for humankind. In 1900, there were on average 11 people living in every square kilometer. In 1950, there were more than one and a half times as many people in the same space. In 2010, this number grew to 46 people. And by 2050, it will reach 62 people. EFTA_R1_00170185 EFTA01809950 Monday, June 4, 12 Second, the distribution of population throughout continents is changing dramatically. Let me take just the most startling example. In 1950 the population of Europe was nearly two- and-a-half times that of Africa's... EFTA_R1_00170186 EFTA01809951  Europe Africa 2050 Poor d Population Prospects' The 2010 Revision Popular on Database. LN Population Division. 2011 Monday, June 4, 12 By the middle of the century, Africa's population will be more than three times that of Europe's. By 2100, Nigeria alone will have more people than Europe today. This has massive implications for those countries that will have to produce jobs and services for a huge number of people. EFTA_R1_00170187 EFTA01809952  Russia Pakistan 401111111rorw 1950 Monday, June 4, 12 Asia is another continent where most of the population growth is happening. Just to make another comparison, in 1950, the population of Russia was more than two-and-a-half times that of Pakistan's. EFTA_R1_00170188 EFTA01809953  Russia Pakistan 2050 World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision Population Database, UN Population Division, 2011 Monday. June 4. 12 By 2050, Pakistan's population will be more than twice that of Russia's. RI CC1701 EFTA01809954 Monday, June 4, 12 Some countries, like Russia, will age dramatically, facing challenges for their pension and health care systems. Other countries, like Pakistan, will have massive numbers of young people requiring jobs and education. In fact, a recent World Bank report estimated that the economies of South Asia will need to create 1.2 million jobs every month for the next 20 years just to keep up with these demographic shifts. EFTA_R1_00170190 EFTA01809955  16 Cities Over 1 million people in 1900 Monday, June 4, 12 Urbanization is the third demographic shift. In 1900, only 16 cities had populations over 1 million. EFTA_R1_00170191 EFTA01809956  442 Cities Over 1 million people today Monday. June 4, 12 Today, 442 cities have populations over 1 million. Indeed, in 2008, for the first time in human history, more than half the people on the planet live in cities. Urbanization is a global trend, but it is particularly strong in some regions. Cairo, for example, has more than doubled its populations since 1970. In fact, we can say that the Arab Spring is an urban phenomenon, which has been facilitated by the networks and proximities that cities offer. EFTA_R1_00170192 EFTA01809957  FragilCities Monday, June 4, 12 Growing urban populations create critical demands on housing, transportation, security and infrastructure. Fragile cities can become as dangerous as fragile states. EFTA_R1_00170193 EFTA01809958  Environment Monday. June 4, 12 The second mega-trend is the growing pressure on an already strained ecosystem. The rapid growth in global population and in economic development have increased the demand for natural resources. This, in turn, has increased the degradation of our environment. EFTA_R1_00170194 EFTA01809959  — Global United States Monday, June 4, 12 More energy consumption has led to more emissions. Global CO2 emissions have increased by over 180% from 1965 to 2010. For much of this time, the global north, and particularly the United States, has been the primary source of these emissions. In 2007, for the first time in history, China surpassed the United States as a primary source of these emissions. The United States and China make up almost half the global carbon emissions. This makes an agreement between the two countries of paramount importance to the issue of carbon reduction. 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O O o 0 -Sc -3C 1C 2C 3C 4C 5C C mate Change • IND 'bal Analysis 2010 Monday. June 4. 12 The implications on the climate have been amply discussed. Let me show you only one piece of data. The dots on this map indicate the temperature anomalies in 2010, calculated on the average from 1971 to 2000. The larger the dot, the bigger the anomaly. We all are affected by climate change in one way or another, but for some regions, such as North Africa and the Middle East, as you can see from the map, it can become a threat multiplier. EFTA_R1_00170196 EFTA01809961  1"• :` Oft • • 500 . .16 375 • 4 50 J r. • , (*.S . • • or) 'O .. It ;125'*wg • • • . 3.70 •-/ -g`e 4‘' 0 0 40 1.9O° "\.9 N.99 -1,°° atiorrerVisasters CRED 2010 EM-DAT International Disaster Database Monday. June 4. 12 Another effect is the steady rise of natural disasters in the last forty years. While not all of this can be attributed to climate change, shifting sea temperatures have been linked to an increase in the severity of storm and coastal flooding, which has a significant human toll. Urbanization has also increased vulnerability to natural disasters, especially in countries with limited response capacity. For this reason, IPI supported the State of Qatar in developing the HOPEFOR initiative, which aims to improve the use of military and civil defense assets for natural disaster response. EFTA_R 1_00170197 EFTA01809962 Monday. June 4. 12 A consequence of environmental degradation is the growing concern over water scarcity. It affects 1 in 3 people worldwide. EFTA_R 1_00170198 EFTA01809963  iet- 6-/rz " l 'AVA#1111,firgit 14 4. tier/ , a., it ..(1,:r 5'7'4.- 4/ . ,I" I. frit thq / • It ev t it • 1).; -r f•4 tIelil ' . 011tPii t A f:111/41 "I /44A- fe 1g 151.13 W114,4.tti. . tr- Af 14: A' t # ttA• . :-/ 0.• • . -11, Si = , t r - .t.2 #f zR,2- ,e trt • 17. .• •-• • ifi tt It ;* FT, r^-,k i t,' izt:' ;,k 41,4! r '147 „ el 't* AA" (1?")::• -•_V,;-.17,fr . , A4 7, -‘ 4. - •7' k >4; n. Pp4ifik _ •••;;.- * - Water use for agriculture International Water Management Institute 2006 Comprehensive Assessment Monday. June 4. 12 As of today, 70% of water use goes to agriculture. And of even greater concern, 80% of the used water is neither collected nor treated. EFTA_R 1_00170199 EFTA01809964  Technology Monday. June 4, 12 The increasing pace of technological change is our third mega-trend. EFTA R1_00170200 EFTA01809965 Monday, June 4, 12 Technology is changing faster today than ever before in human history. In less than a generation, things like texting, blogging and streaming video have transformed politics and society irrevocably. Just think about this: In 2010, there were more cellphone subscribers than human beings living on our planet in 1985. EFTA_R1_00170201 EFTA01809966  2,200 1,1 0 2005 2010 • A•caEsti ltalsilbazatdateri t life-Americas Internet Access ITU The World in 2010: ICT Facts and Figures Monday, June 4, 12 Today, the speed of technology diffusion is unprecedented. For example, global access to the internet has more than doubled in the last 5 years. However, the diffusion of this technology has not been distributed evenly across regions. In the Americas, more than half the population has regular access to the internet. In the Arab States, less than 30%. And in Africa, less than 10%. The digital divide still persists. EFTA_R1_00170202 EFTA01809967 Monday, June 4, 12 This famous image of our planet at night illustrates this point. It conveys the vivid contrast between the bright and technologically advanced urban centers and the darker, less developed, but increasingly crowded regions of the rest of the world. EFTA_R1_00170203 EFTA01809968 Monday, June 4, 12 Technology creates immense opportunities. However, it also carries unforeseen dangers. 2011 has seen a major wave of cyber attacks. Targets included Apple, Citigroup, Google, NBC, and the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. Defense ministries in Australia, Japan, Norway, the US, and NATO were also hacked. EFTA_R1_00170204 EFTA01809969 Monday. June 4, 12 Cyber attacks can also disrupt critical infrastructure. Things as diverse as power plants, water treatment and air traffic control are all heavily dependent on computer networks and easily targeted by terrorists and criminals. EFTA_R1_00170205 EFTA01809970  Economic Power Monday. June 4, 12 The fourth trend that is driving major change is the shifts in economic power. EFTA_R1_00170206 EFTA01809971  I 4. BRIC MENA IM, Rest of EU Rest of Asia • I Rest G7, tili11,1010.1 . * conomic •ower IMF 2011 World Economic Outlook Database Monday, June 4, 12 The global economy is still characterized by uncertainty and volatility. The Eurozone might not have avoided the worst, and remains a long way from recovery. Brazilian growth estimates were recently downgraded. Some experts also see signs of a bubble in the Chinese economy. However, one trend is clear. Even before the 2008 financial crisis, economic influence has begun to move from Western countries to emerging powers. Different countries' relative contribution to the world economy has changed dramatically. In 2000, the G7 countries contributed to 65% of the world economy. EFTA_R1_00170207 EFTA01809972 Monday, June 4, 12 In only ten years, they went down to 51%, while the so called BRIC countries have grown from one-sixth of the world economy to almost a quarter. This trend seems to be bound to continue. EFTA_R1_00170208 EFTA01809973 Monday, June 4, 12 Part of the strain on the global economy is due to the price fluctuation of scarce commodities like oil and food. Demand for energy will increase by one-third in the next 25 years. Non-OPEC countries currently produce roughly half of the global oil supply. EFTA_R1_00170209 EFTA01809974 Monday, June 4, 12 However, at current production rates, the known reserves in non-OPEC countries will run out within the next two decades. Barring new discoveries, this will drastically increase the share of OPEC in global production by 2035. EFTA_R1_00170210 EFTA01809975 Monday. June 4, 12 Regardless, the age of cheap oil is over as companies turn to more difficult and costly sources to meet demand. Nuclear power has now lost some support due to the Fukushima disaster. And green renewable technology is not yet scalable to meet global demand. While oil will continue to play a significant role, by 2035 natural gas will become crucial to meet demand. EFTA_R1_00170211 EFTA01809976  tt _ lb. ----- .-J 10: .' ' • ,. ' 7*..; ,'" 10 :1 .-.ft 3 t . a'. •• t.\..,......... /.::••*..;,". ...., %hi'. • ".. : 4.-744" —; 7 7----. .• • ,P4 -..•••.. .v,„i. , • • T• ;. , 1 . .1 .4^ # -4$7,ar i • . • _.' —1161. • Co• .• • N. - s• • - l.Z 1 f - •. % N. • ' A` „ft A -. , .% ..* 4 • ' i" '• • I•v _• r,• ..... . t . ,. " ..4' ...- i ^ • e r. . . ' . . ja ' I.. let • •• is. 1 - ta ‘ • i• ,.. ar ''' v ; `vo i/ t" . A, ' ... - 14 t' J k ' ''. •It : 4 .. 0 . *4 -4I. n II -II III I.' I - ..e, a . <4' • we 0. it !• • ''' 0 VIt` .ft ...F * • ti .4 .). \-- Ar , . ''' Lyip'"/ s — • - —, :1 0 P s Ate f 0 . - • --4T • iroti • .. ,„„...." - t A. 3 lap \II, ''. 411\C' '' 44 : ' O ra' Iglir Estimated increase in demand for food b-ylk2p51 •i • 4014 FAO. United Nations World Water Development report, 2012 Monday. June 4. 12 But oil is not the only resource under pressure. Food is another. The FAO estimates a growth of 70% in the demand for food by 2050. As oil prices spike, potential food price increases are a serious risk for instability. Many countries use subsidies to mitigate costs. However, this practice is becoming untenable. Nigeria recently attempted to reduce oil subsidies, but demonstrators and strikes forced the government to back down. EFTA_R 1_00170212 EFTA01809977  Social Tensions Monday, June 4, 12 The fifth mega-trend is the growing social tensions. EFTA_R1_00170213 EFTA01809978 Monday. June 4, 12 In the Middle East, social unrest has produced the most striking effect. But, it is not only the Middle East. From New York to Athens, from London to Moscow, from New Delhi to Madrid, huge numbers of people took to the streets in protest of governments and policies. There is the perception that, globally, the gap between people and institutions is widening. This was so evident that in 2011 Time Magazine named the protester the "person of the year". EFTA_R1_00170214 EFTA01809979  0 Relative increase of income share of the richeW.3% Monday, June 4, 12 Some experts have linked these social tensions to the growing level of income inequality within countries. In fact, inequality is truly a global trend. Globally between 1988 and 2005, the share of household income for the richest 5% increased by 8%. For the poorest 25%, this share has decreased by 32%. EFTA_R1_00170215 EFTA01809980  Geopolitical Balance Monday. June 4, 12 The sixth and last mega-trend is the shift in geopolitical balance. It goes without saying that this is heavily influenced by the trends we just described. EFTA_R1_00170216 EFTA01809981  SIPRI Military Expenditure Database 2010 Monday, June 4, 12 The implications of the rise of new powers such as Brazil, China, India, South Africa, and Turkey are uncertain. The shifting political landscape in the Arab world is still playing out in unpredictable ways. One thing is clear, however: the geopolitical balance is shifting irrevocably. In military terms, power is primarily concentrated in the hands of the United States. America has the largest defense budget compared to any other country in the world, with almost $740 billion in 2010-11. While Chinese defense spending is rising, there remains a substantial gap. EFTA_R1_00170217 EFTA01809982  lititi*ri irrt.„trier; •W. , I t.' ti • k • 1 . _ • • Sap 6,000 I 4,000 .... . - .. • :-- - -••%. • air v.. ; • . ••• • ...",. .1%7.4', .• - !vas - - - -• • ...• % ...1 a . tic-- • • r ( I • or A - . /e* 11 4. 2,000 • ; • 0 UK France India Russia