EFTA01459020.pdf

tin mmilimm Ftcm. INtbc, ; 404 WM:MAU:Mt t,*ic light, Asst..1:ms Nrsinc.04os Pr..frol.0 The big picture Our strategic forecasts Just as in 2015, capital markets are under the spell of central banks. But 2016 will be the year of reckoning. The Fed will have to lead the way and demonstrate that monetary policy can indeed be normalized. Stefan Kreuzkamp, Chief Investment Officer Economic data Capital markets ;22-4*.e0 0mi/I 2.2 di 2.4 urited 516,”;52.0 500 in.*-0 2,075 2.170 7 Eumnrync 1.4 1.6 fume: (SIM E groin MO !omm 319 390 6 Urnt0 Kegdorn 2.5 2.2 Eusomom EURO 510X1( 50 lexical 3.448 A 3,600 21410n OM 0 1.2 Gonne', OM, 10.908 F 11,700 7 Ch,ro 6.8 1 6.0 Kiwykro 1,10 0001 6.297 Jr 6,400 5 Wwld 3.2 3.5 c1.02ei Jay.ininda.1 972 0 1.030 8 MSCE"Eftwoop Male!, IrMa. (1.15t1) 833 830 2 United States (GOP growth) MSC! AC Axs 04 .kip inct4 (000, 512 510 2 2.2%$2.4% M5CE EM UM: tv0tc12) Ii4 0.1201 2.029 1.800 8 (2015F) (20161) MSC! EM Jaen Anionca index fin U.S. dollars) 2,029 y 1,800 We expect U.S. GDP growth to pick up only slightly, to 2.4%. Following declines in unemployment, the United States are now operating close to full capacity. (Current`) (Dec 2016F) percent (year-on.year) Commodity-producing countries in Latin America remain exposed to China's slowdown. Political risks, especially in Brazil, 20151 2016F are another area of concern. 1 4,1.6 01,1.2 China Umlex1 Status Emmons F raters to our forecasts. Our forecasts are as of 11/11/2015. 0.2 sl .8 0.7,0.8 Past performance is not indicative of future returns. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. No assurance can be given that any forecast ortarget will be reached. Forecasts Uthlai KinislOgn _Isom are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical China's growth Is slowing. Especially in manufacturing, it will models or analyses that may prove to be incorrect. Investments take time for overcapacity to be reduced, maintaining downward come with risk. The value of an investment can fall as well as pressure on prices rise and your capital may be at risk. You might not get back the amount originally invested at any point in time. .3 0 t=iterApost CF-)WVII.Ahn44,c4 Ecki,:51Dlomcm 2015 CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. GRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0119217 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00265401 EFTA01459020