EFTA02635308.pdf

From: Richard Kahn Sent: Thursday, June 14, 2018 1:25 PM To: Jeffrey Epstein Subject: Fwd: BAML Insight: NASPERS discount, XOM inflection, PCG scenarios, AMX hosted CEO, RENAULT spec-sit, ACC upgrade, GENE editing, GDPR idea, SMG short. Richard Kahn HBRK Associates Inc. 5=5 Lexington Avenue, 4th Floor New Y=rk, NY 10022 Phone 212-971-1306 Fax 646-350-0954 Cell 917.414-7584 Begin forwarded mess=ge: From: "Ens, Amanda" =ate: June 14, 2018 at 9:04:20 AM EDT To: "Rich Kahn' =ubject: BAML Insight: NASPERS discount, XOM inflection, PCG scenario=, AMX hosted CEO, RENAULT spec-sit, ACC upgrade, GENE editing, GDPR idea, S=G short. Reply-To: "Ens, Amanda" Holding compan= with stakes in high quality Internet properties around the world including=Tencent, Mail.ru chttp://Mail.ru> and Delivery Hero. Key issu= is the 45% discount NAV never seems to close (chart 1). Past 3 months Nasp=rs crystallized over $12bn realizing impressive returns = 5,500x on Tence=t and 3.7x on Flipkart. Zero impact on the discount for 2 reasons 1) limite= visibility on use of proceeds and no buybacks 2) flows have not been helpf=l as South African investors materially reduced their ownership in Naspers.=Why Buy now? 3 upcoming catalysts. 1) We think the company will change mgmt= incentive compensation at AGM August 2018 similar to the strategy Altaba used with a bonus multiplier. 2) With $lob in c=sh mgmt can unbundle legacy pay TV business (=orth $8b) as company is less dependent on cash flows. 3) Buyback debate. As=et disposals have had no impact on the discount. $5bn buyback is self- help t=ol that would close discount 2% a needed move in right direction. PO 4,800 ZAR based on SOW applying 30% holdco discount. 40% upside. Catalyst AGM in August. Note.<=span> chttp://rsch.baml.com/r?q=81DFccB5G7WH!XlzUwWEZg&==richardkahn12%40gmail.com&h=rxyvOw> =/span> EXXON: BUY. MGMT SUCCEEDING IN CHANGING DI=LOGUE = VALUE & GROWTH. EFTA_R1_01861046 EFTA02635308 In a rare event for the market, we hosted US1-rated XOM last week. W='re comfortable with our street-high PO as mgmt. remain committed t=ward plans to double FCF by 2025 vs under investment risk by the other 'maj=rs'. Following relative underperformance post 4Q, we believe the market40.99s beginning to come around. Rather than buybacks & de-leverage at the=bottom, XOM was investing through-the-cycle, granting them the opportunity/=lexibility to now high-grade their portfolio, while accelerate opportunitie= to rationalize non-core assets. Growth is ratable, commencing in 2H18 with=milestones to underpin confidence in delivery. Pace of Permian activity alo=e = earlier inflection? = parallel to catalyst underpinning CVX'= 2016 turnaround. =span style="mso-bookmark:_MailOriginal">Note. <https://rsch.baml.com/r?q=3D4TbXQ.IxrVNWmvKl2bq0o8Q&e=richardkahn12%40gmail.com&h=VYXjpA> Julien Dumoulin-Smith estimates a $2.4bn liability = -$900=n impact to shareholders equity based on insured losses only. PCG mgmt. wil= file request for waiver with the CPUC for a hypothetical cap structure. Mg=t. prefers not to issue equity at this point. HoldCo=/span> debt is second option if waiver is denied. We model a current equity=cushion of $678mn YE18. There is a $lbn annualized savings from the dividen=. Butte fire claims remain the largest unknown. Potential Butte liabilities=are $1.1bn with upward bias. Claims can be filed until Sept 2018, pace of c=aims expected to accelerate as statute of limitations deadline approaches. W= remain neutral rated as downside risk from uncertainty related to Butte fi=e is too great. Julien hosted debate lunch last week where 25 investors s=owed up; ask for color. Note <https://rsch.baml.com/=?q=rszlmLo9DWF3936fXorxTQ&e=richardkahn12%40gmail.com&h=Y-q3A=> . 4b> AMX: HOSTED CEO. WORST IS BEHIND. MARGIN EXPANSION. DELEVERAGING.=29% UPSIDE. For just the 2nd time in 1= years. Key messages: worst of competition/regulation is behind them= Scope to drive margins from low-30's to low-40's. Data dem=nd robust. Dragging business either 1) losing relevance or 2) inflecting=/i>. Consolidated revenue/EBITDA can +2/6% CAGR through 2020E, respectiv=ly... AND EBITDA is diversified. Mexico 30%. Brazil 20%. USD/EUR m=rkets 25%. Remainder spread. Despite high exposure to hard currency, B/S is=diversified and at 2x (with plans to go to 1.5x by 1H19). Post 23% pullback=stock trading at 5.4x EBITDA and 7.3% FCF. $20 target = 29% upside. Note <http://rsch.baml.com/r?q=ACSc82buQ9drSKvMkFAuVQ&e==ichardkahn12%40gmail.com&h=lm2spw> .</=> =nbsp; RENAULT: SPEC SITS BUY. High conviction from BAML S=ecial Sits in London. Risk-reward now asymmetric. We see downside to 40=824)75-80 if the event it's ruled out vs. €95-125 upon a m=rger. Catalyst = Annual meeting tomorrow. Market currently pricing in =EAR ZERO probability of merger with Nissan. WE SAY: CEO's start=stop narrative on the merger has wiped out the perceived optionality. This i= posturing for the deal. Renault needs the deal to unlock its punitive HoldCo discount. Nissan needs it as well. Full wri=e up with SoTP assumptions available. =/span>Note. <https://rsch.baml.com/r?q=8ZROqhUlThXRTm2d8GGmkA&e==ichardkahnle/0.40gmail.com&hryrZA0A> MAR. <https://market=.ml.com/disclosures/ir?id=InnEl9uQaPA%3d> <=> SMG short (ask for write-up). <http://rsch.baml.com/r?q=2tTH04Bal26=ynUBvTWj- Q&e=richardkahnl2%40gmail.com&h=R7E0dA> AG GENE-EDITING da=a point. <http://rsch.baml.com/r?q==NwhKLpQ5XOnutOgS8gc-w&e=richardkahn12%40gmail.com&h=9XEz1Q> =a href="http://rsch.baml.com/r?q=JF0qSRBf9El!AhU3!NyxBg&e=richard=ahn12%40gmail.com&h=Sx.IstQ">GDPR update, buy CYBR. 2722824 2 EFTA_R1_01861047 EFTA02635309 EFTA_R1_01861048 EFTA02635310