Re: [big campaign] New Huff Post from Creamer-Lessons from Massachusetts Defeat

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If there¹s anyone considering national polling to assess the messaging Bob¹s urging below, I¹d be game to consider joint work, or helping in other ways. Please let me know. David On 1/20/10 9:14 AM, "[email protected]" <[email protected]> wrote: > Lessons from the Massachusetts Defeat > > > The Massachusetts Senate race is a watershed event that has enormous > implications for this political year. The media is intent on making it a > referendum on President Obama and his health care reform plan. But that > interpretation of the results is just flat wrong. > > President Obama maintains a fairly robust 55% approval rate in > Massachusetts. And while it is true that the polling indicates that the ³Obama > Health Reform Plan² as a general concept is not very popular there, the > individual components of reform continue to have substantial levels of public > support ­ both in Massachusetts and around the country. > > The fact is that if you see enough TV spots saying that the ³Obama health > care plan² will cost jobs, take away your freedom, and cut your Medicare (all > factually wrong) ­ you start to believe it. Because of the massive length of > the health care battle, the pro-health care reform forces, have simply been > outgunned on TV by the big insurance companies and the Chamber of Commerce > (mainly funded by the big insurance companies) that have pockets of infinite > depth. > > On the other hand, if you ask people if they want to end the ability of > insurance companies to use preexisting conditions to deny care; make health > insurance available at affordable prices to everyone; require insurance > companies to spend the bulk of their premiums on health care instead of > profits and CEO salaries; or give people the alternative of a public option ­ > you get very strong support. > > Add to that the fact that 98% of people in Massachusetts have health > insurance because of their own state based health care reform -- and almost > 80% are happy with their health insurance -- and it¹s clear that the race > there was not at all a referendum on health care reform. > > There are however major critical lessons for Democrats in the > Massachusetts defeat: > > Lesson #1.The big take away: don¹t run a bad campaign. The Coakley > campaign made four critical errors any one of which, by itself, probably cost > her the election. > > First, they did not follow the first law of the Obama campaign to ³leave > no stone unturned². Coakley went on vacation in the Caribbean after her > primary victory. She didn¹t campaign and she didn¹t raise money. When the > campaign¹s pollsters ­ the respected firm of Lake Research ­ proposed doing a > tracking poll after the primary, they were told there was no money. As a > result, the campaign was caught flat footed as Brown began to surge. > > The reason you leave no stone unturned in a campaign, it to account for > the unexpected. Yes, Coakley was 20 points up on Brown after the primary, > but if the campaign was not asleep at the switch it would have discovered the > Brown surge while it could still be stopped. > > Second, the campaign allowed Brown to define himself ­ and Coakley -- for > swing voters. When Brown began a wave of advertising between Christmas and > New Years, it went unanswered. The moment Brown began to surge, the campaign > should have hit back and defined him as a shill for the Big Banks and > insurance companies ­ not the attractive, charismatic outsider he appeared to > be to many voters. > > Third, the campaign allowed their candidate to be perceived as the elite > insider ­ and ceded to Brown the role of crusading outsider. Democrats win > when they appear to be what they ought to be ­ populist agents of change ­ not > competent insider technocrats. That is particularly true when people are angry > at the status quo. > > Forth, unbelievably, the campaign had no field program. It was left to > the heroic efforts of Organize for America (OFA) to try to save the day by > improvising a field program in the last week and a half. More than anything > else, Coakley lost because of a wave of Republican turnout. Until OFA arrived > there was no apparatus in place to increase Democratic turnout. That borders > on political malpractice. OFA did everything it could. Over the last weekend > OFA made over 1.2 million turn out calls to potential Democratic voters. But > great field programs ­ particularly door to door programs that are the most > effective means of boosting turnout -- must be organized with several months > of lead time ­ not a week and a half. > > OFA proved once again how invaluable it is to the Democratic Party. Were > it not for their efforts ­ and the Obama trip to Massachusetts ­ Coakley could > have been routed in a blowout that would have shaken Democratic confidence to > its foundation. > > Even with all of these problems, Coakley might have still pulled it out > had Brown himself not been an exciting, engaging, energetic candidate with an > interesting history who ran a flawless campaign. In the end, elections are > about the candidate and their campaigns. People vote for people; and to the > voters the quality of their campaigns is a powerful symbol of the qualities of > the candidate. > > Lesson #2: There is a great deal of anger in America that is focused > first and foremost on people¹s own economic prospects and frustration that > change appears so difficult. Democrats have to do everything in our power to > deliver jobs. And we must focus that anger at the people who caused the > economic meltdown and are delaying fundamental change: the insurance > companies, the Big Wall Street banks, the energy companies. > > The fact of the matter is that when people are angry, if you don¹t focus > that anger on the people who really caused their problems ­ they will focus it > on the people in charge ­ in this case Democrats ­ even if they were not > mainly to blame. > > It was the financial sector ­ Wall Street speculators, the Big Banks, the > insurance companies ­ that caused the worst economic disaster since the Great > Depression. And the Republicans ­ and their ³markets uber alles² philosophy > made it all possible. > > Democrats must have a clear, populist frame to win elections in 2010. In > Massachusetts the campaign began to talk about the President¹s proposal to tax > Wall Street in the final hours, but it was too late. Coakley had allowed > herself to be framed as an insider, technocrat versus a crusading populist > outsider ­ even though Brown will in fact go to Washington and vote down the > line for the big insurance companies and Wall Street Banks. > > To appeal to independent voters we do not have to be ³more moderate² or > ³measured² as some have argued. We must be bolder and more populist. > > And the problem is not ­ as one commentator argued last night ­ a > frustration with the ³fiscal overreach² of the Democrats. The problem is that > we have not produced enough jobs. Democrats must pass a large jobs program > now, and the deficit can¹t stand in the way. And let¹s remember, it was > George Bush who turned a Clinton surplus into more debt that all other > previous President¹s combined. > > Lesson #3: We have to keep our base inspired and mobilized -- to make > change and to win elections. The Massachusetts special election taught the > same lesson as the Democrats¹ catastrophic loss in 1994 ­ we have to inspire > our voters to go to the polls. Democrats lost control of Congress in 1994 > because our voters stayed home. > > In Massachusetts the right wing base was infused with excitement over the > possibility of taking progressive icon Ted Kennedy¹s Senate seat ­ and > hobbling Obama¹s agenda in the Senate. The Democratic base was not inspired > by the relatively bland Coakley and has been generally dispirited by the > difficulty of passing health care, Lieberman¹s sabotage of the public option ­ > and the general recognition that Barack Obama can not simply wave a wand and > make change. > > The insurance companies, Wall Street banks and energy companies haven¹t > just rolled over and played dead. They have put up tough ­ tooth and nail > battles ­ to defend the status quo. > > Though I don¹t believe that the shape of the health care bill would have > likely been a great deal different, there is no question that President Obama > would be in better political shape with the base of the Democratic Party if he > had been a more forceful advocate of the public option ­ and appeared more > forceful in taking on Wall Street. > > On the other hand, Progressive leaders across America need to direct > their own frustration at the forces that are defending the status quo and > standing in the way of the Obama agenda. They need to take personal > responsibility for rallying the base against our true enemies ­ Wall Street, > the insurance industry, the energy companies and the Republicans -- not > encouraging cynicism and disaffection of base voters. That sense of > frustration lead directly to a victory for Brown and now we are stuck with one > more huge impediment to change in the U.S. Senate. > > Lesson #4: Democrats must do whatever is necessary to pass a good health > care reform now. The President, House Speaker and Senate Majority Leader have > all pledged to do just that. The absolute worst response to the Republican > victory in Massachusetts would be to cut and run. We have to muster our forces > and do whatever is necessary to get it done. > > Bad enough that the late Senator Edward Kennedy¹s seat is now in the > hands of a Republican that does not share his progressive values. We must do > whatever is necessary to assure that the fulfillment of his life long dream of > health care for all is not thwarted as well. > > That will probably require that some portion of the bill be passed > through the budget reconciliation process that requires only 51 votes, now > that the Senate no longer has 60 members who caucus with the Democrats. If > so, so be it. > > The idea that a minority of 41 members of the Senate can thwart the will > of the majority is fundamentally undemocratic in the first place. > > In fact, the Senate needs to change its rules to eliminate the abusive > use of filibusters that now effectively require 60 votes to pass any > significant piece of legislation. > > The Massachusetts loss was a set back for the Progressive agenda. But it > is in times of adversity that voters get to test the mettle of leaders and > political parties. Time to square our shoulders, stand up straight, and show > America that we can really make fundamental change. > > Robert Creamer is a long-time political organizer and strategist, and author > of the recent book: ³Stand Up Straight: How Progressives Can Win,² available > on Amazon.com. > <http://www.amazon.com/Listen-Your-Mother-Straight-Progressives/dp/0979585295/ > ref=pd_bbs_sr_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1213241439&sr=8-1> > > > > . > > > > > > > > -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the "big campaign" group. To post to this group, send to [email protected] To unsubscribe, send email to [email protected] E-mail [email protected] with questions or concerns This is a list of individuals. It is not affiliated with any group or organization.