EFTA01449232.pdf

30 July 2013 Exchange Rate Perspectives: FX and the Financial Transaction Tax Figure 7: Export volumes have remained below trend Figure 8: Export volume deviations from trend is no since 2001 longer correlated with moving average of dollar valuation aannnnAVADnAlern ,een USIA Oman* -070 Mannote0 10 4.0 10 4.7 000 oa 4.6 010 o 111 4!. 070 -0 n. Sager Dalarea, PUNS* Bog Saw DIOAMA Lant.4 Ba•A [Figure 9: A brief end to the dollar upsurge doesn't seem (Figure 10: Recovery in import price is boosting the to bolster export volume growth volume during the past few months —Exoortvolurno 20 22 20 4 30 I 04 Y0Y.116 ilf:TRIIIMA.kny•Ited6W Lo 15 17 0-10 440 10 12 10 4 50 0 4 60 -5 -20 Jan-94 Jan-98 Jan.02 Jan-06 Jan-10 4 70 4 80 -10 15 Jan.92 . .fratect Vohanis InpOn Pico Val Jana) Jana) Jan C4 Jan-03 Jan-12 •I3 a8 Source. DeteStrewn, Deutsch* Sant San• &bays% Detach,Bank Figure 1 : Import price inflation has followed the dollar Figure 12: Import volume growth has generally been highly correlated with US domestic demand growth iir 26 —Import Pnce -12 20 20 VW.% USTABA0Aineftearh91 15 16 -7 10 .1 i. 5 -2 6 0 0 It) NikI A\ - i 3 -5 -10 -5 8 -15 -10 —import Volume -20 .15 13 -25 US811rhst -20 Ja -94 Jon-99 Jan-02 Jan-06 Jan-10 Jan-94 Jan-99 Jan-O2 Jan-06 Jan-10 Sown. Conearen Dance* 8ent Savor OestSrewn Set Page 40 Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0104553 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00250737 EFTA01449232