EFTA01449319.pdf

30 July 2013 Exchange Rate Perspectives: FX and the Financial Transaction Tax G10 FX Valuation Monitor Lines in the Sand" [Figure 1: The euro looks expensive and the dollar cheap Figure 27 The dollar is 9% cheap to fair value 40 130 130 29.0 30 25.8 120 11:O11A1 120 19S 110 110 20 15.0 d'r 12 ° 10.5 100 100 10 7.0 90 90 0 80 80 -2.3 70 -10 70 -8.5 -12.3 60 -20 .1 73 78 78 82 86 88 91 94 97 00 03 08 09 NZD AUD CHF CAD EUR NOK GBP SEK USD JPY Said DS PYR•rwal Sam DS aRaikaarch I FIgure 3: EUR/USD: The euro is expensive (Ilough remains within the 20% threshold ... Fig We LISFYJPV7 The yen is very cheap to fair value 1.8 EUR/USD — — —• 20% Band r 1.6 350 350 PPP EuRAJSD 1.4 300 • 300 1.4 250 250 1.2 1.2 200 • 200 1.0 1.0 150 150 0.8 0.8 100 100 0.6 50 • 50 73 77 81 85 89 93 97 01 05 09 13 73 77 81 85 89 93 97 01 05 09 13 San. 08IltReenn Sara'Le',XIteneich [Figure 5: USD/GBP: GBP is expensive ... 'Figure 6: USD/CHF: as well as CHF 095 095 0 85 0.85 0 75 0 75 0 85 085 0 55 0 55 045 045 • 035 • uSD/G8P 0 35 PPP uSD/G8P 025 0 25 73 77 81 97 73 77 81 85 89 93 97 01 05 09 13 85 89 93 01 05 09 13 Sane DB FXRatsten San*.DO +XRoserch 'Our measure of relative PPP is calculated using long-term averages from Jan-80 to Dec-04 and deflating by monthly CPI differentials. We refer to current spot rates as 'cheap' or 'expensive' with explicit reference to this measure of fair valuation: these statements are not intended in any way to be 'buy' or 'ser recommendations. Page 18 Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0104674 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00250858 EFTA01449319