EFTA02093088.pdf

From: Sent: Thur 10/9/2014 10:00:09 AM Subject: Early Tour 10.9.14 Good Morning ... European Markets up 25-115 bps (Portugal -0.35%, Turkey +2.8%, Greece +1.7%) ... NKY -0.75%, SHCOMP +0.28%, HSI +1.08%, KOSPI (closed), TWSE +0.13%, ASX +1.06% EUR 1.2772 (+0.30%) JPY 107.86 (+0.21%) RUB +0.59% AUD +0.31% NZD +0.45% GBP +0.24% US 10yr 2.313% Futures: Dow +30, Nasdaq +12, S&P +5 DXY $85.06 (-24c) Crude $87.34 (+3c) Gold $1227.90 (+$21.90) Copper +1.35% Silver +3.14% Nat Gas +0.26% Asia mostly higher overnight with the exception of Japan. HK led gains after the big rebound in the US and pro-growth comments from China's Premier Li during yesterday's State Council meeting. Autos were strong on the back of BTE Sep sales from Great Wall (+4.5%) while Macau plays (+1.6%) got a boost ahead of Q3 results. Tianhe Chemicals got slammed (-40.7%) after resuming trading following fraud allegations from Anonymous Analytics. In Japan, the Nikkei closed on the lows as the Y firmed against the USD, breaking 108 and adding selling pressure to exporters and reflation plays. Japan Machinery orders for August were out before the open, rising +4.7% (est +0.5%) which represents the 3rd straight month of improvement. Mini-SQ (expiry) tomorrow so volumes will be higher on the open. Taiwan squeezed out a small gain, helped in part by TSMC (+2%) ahead of O3 sales out post close (NT$209.1bn vs cons of NT$207.5bn). Korea was closed for a holiday and Taiwan will be closed tomorrow. European markets also bid higher today after the S&P rallied 43 handles from the lows to the highs after the Europe close yesterday on the more dovish Fed Minutes (biggest 1-day gain in the S&P this year, volume 8.5 billion shares = 6'h biggest day of the year). Basic Resources, Tech, Construction leading the way higher in Europe so far this morning. USD is weaker again with the DXY -0.22% and the 10yr yield is 2.31%. SPA's +5 handles = 1967.10 last. ***Jobless Claims tj 8:30am, Wholesale Inventories @ 10am*** ***PEP earnings pre-open / FDO #'s post close*** ••Icahn plans to send open letter to Apple today"' • Gap Sept comps missed (sees Q3 gm's lighter) & CEO to step down next year (trading -8%) • Alcoa strong Q3 profits (eps +180%) on better auto & aerospace demand (trading +1.5%) • Apple to hold October 16th event planning to reveal latest iPad tablets ahead of holidays EFTA_R1_00693069 EFTA02093088  • Ruby Tuesday loss narrower as better comps & margins helped cost savings (trading +18%) • Advanced Micro named (COO) Lisa Su as Chief Executive effective immediately (trading -7%) • The Helmsley Building put up for sale in NYC, may fetch more than $1.1 billion (Bloomberg) • Royal Mail settlement pact with French competition authority, makes £18M provision (trading +1.5%) • Casino signs joint purchasing pact with Intermarche in a bid to reduce their costs (trading +2.3%) • Gerresheimer issues 2015 forecast below analyst ests, Bereneberg & JPM downgrade (trading - 7.5%) • Moeller-Maersk gets U.S. regulatory approval for pact with MSC according to Reuters (trading +2.7%) • Hays IMS ahead of recently lowered expectations, went ex-dividend today of 1.8p (trading +5.3%) • Wood Group update inline, confirms guidance, strategy presentation on PSN division this am (trading +4.2%) • Suedzucker O2 inline, FY outlook confirmed but targets challenging as EU sugar worse (trading - 11%) • Delta Lloyd ends sale process of its Belgian banking business as talks failed (trading -3.2%) • Rolls Royce's Trent 1000 engines selected by Norwegian Air for 9 Dreamliner aircraft (trading +1.0%) • GlaxoSmithKline issues statement on website: sees negative impact of FX on Q3 (trading unch) • German exports slide the most since January 2009 (-5.8% m/m in August vs estimate -4.0%) • Fast Retailing (Uniqlo) reported after the close in Japan (forecast FY net income to rise +34%) Leading European Sectors: Basic Res +2.58%, Tech +2.05%, Construction +1.53% Lagging European Sectors: Telco +0.09%, Banks +0.23%, Media +0.26% EOPN forecast light — GSAT call today — KFX prelim revs missed KFX LN cuts forecast — BWNG LN profit warning — CEY LN production inline Secondaries (announced/priced): PTCT, ANAC (convert) IPO's (priced): HubSpot (HUBS) 5m shrs at $25 (above range), USD Partners (USDP) 8.85m shrs at EFTA_R1_00693070 EFTA02093089  $17 (below range), Veritex (VBTX) 2.7m shrs at $13, MOL Global (MOLG) 13.5M-ADS IPO priced at $12.50/ADS, OM Asset Management Limited (OMAM) 22.OM-share IPO priced at $14 (below) IPO's (filed): Landmark Infrastructure (LMRK) files for $50M IPO through Baird, Raymond James and RBC US Key Research: • BMO initiates MSFT/CHD (mp) & cuts CUCHD, Baird initiates MD (op) and IPCM (neut), CRT initiates GRUB (buy) • DB initiates DK/MPC/TSONLO (buy) & HFC/PBF/PSX (hold) & downgrades TDG & initiates AGN (buy) GS assumes RNG (neut) & reinstates CBSO (neut), Imperial initiates BDE/NTK (in-line), JMP initiates HLT (op) • Jefferies initiates TGI/MW (buy) & upgrades BAS and HP (buy), Opco cuts HUB.B & upgrades AYlm Roth upgrades AUMN (buy) • RBC cuts ARWR & initiates LYB (top pick) and DOW/PPG/SHW/WLK (op) and DD/OLNNAL (sp) and AXLL (up) Telsey, Wells, Sterne, and Janney downgrade GPS, Wells upgrades UTI, Longbow upgrades VMC (buy) Europe Key Research: • Bofa upgrades ALPHA GA/NBG (buy) & cuts GRF SM/MAN GR & reinstates ERICB SS (up) and NOK1V FH (buy) Bofa reinstates ALU FP (neut), Barcap initiates BOO LN (ow), Berenberg cuts GXI CY, Cantor initiates GDG LN (buy) • Citi initiates BAVA DC/IPH FP (buy) and EUROB GA (neut) & upgrades ALPHA GA (buy), Unicredit initiates ATT PW (sell) • CS downgrades HALKB TINAKBN TI & upgrades TEBNK TI, Exane downgrades ALV GR, HSBC upgrades RRS LN • GS upgrades WRT1V FH & adds SIE GR/GEBN SW to Conviction Buy List; removes SU FP, Investec upgrades HSBA LN • JPM downgrades GXI GR/CEZ CP/RNO FP & upgrades DNLM LN/BMW GR, Kepler initiates JM SS (buy) Peel Hunt upgrades ADN LN (buy) & downgrades BWNG LN, Panmure upgrades EMG LN (buy) EFTA_R1_00693071 EFTA02093090  Numis downgrades POG LN/SPT LN & upgrades ANTO LN and PUB LN/PDL LN/RRS LN (buy) r Nomura downgrades VOD LN, SEB downgrades SWMA SS and ELI1V FH (sell), Swedbank upgrades HLDX SS (buy) UBS removes EMSN SWNVCH GR from Most Preferred list Reporting Pre-Open: PEP, EMMS, LNN, LRN, ZA Reporting Post-Close: FDO, ANGO, CUDA, CMTL, ENZ, HELE, JOEZ, VOXX Economic Data: Jobless Claims @ 8:30am, Bloomberg Consumer Comfort © 9:45am, Wholesale Inventories © 10am EIA natural gas storage © 10:30am, Treasury auction in 30yr bonds © 1pm ($13B) Fed Speakers: Bullard © 10:15am, Draghi & Fisher © 11am (Washington), Tarullo 1:10pm (Washington), Lacker @ 1:15pm (NC), Fischer 1:30pm (Washington), Williams © 3:40pm (Las Vegas) Conferences: No major conferences Analyst/Investor Days: OPXA, PLKI, VCYT, RENT Non-Deal Roadshows: CUBE, DRNA, FLML, GSM, HL, HRTG, IMAX, IMDZ, JBT, KFY, KPTI, MU, ONTX, PACD, PANW, PFIE, PINC, PRGX, RBA, SIG, SRCL, STR, TNXP, TROV, ACOR Shareholder Meetings: APWC, RPM Equity/Mixed Shelfs: SAFM, PEGI, ASTI ($25M), ONTX ($100M) EFTA_R1_00693072 EFTA02093091 Other Newspaper Articles & Stories WSJ positive: PetroChina (857 HK) WSJ • Why Startups Aren't Rushing Into IPOs WSJ • Hackers May Have Targeted at Least 13 Firms WSJ • Google's Tax Setup Challenged by France WSJ • Manufacturing Wages Rise Fast in Some States WSJ • Pimco's Rout Is No Romp for Gross WSJ • Oil Markets Fly Into a Perfect Storm WSJ • Gap CEO to Step Down WSJ • Apple, Others Surprised by GT's Bankruptcy Filing WSJ • U.S. Sends Mixed Signals on Syria Buffer Zone WSJ • UKIP Eyes First Parliamentary Seat in Clacton By-Election WSJ • Russia Spends More to Buoy Ruble WSJ • Manufacturing Wages Rise Fast in Some Areas WSJ • The Ebola Democrats WSJ • Newly Vigilant, U.S. Will Screen Travelers From Africa for Ebola NYT • Low Price, High Hopes for OnePlus Phone NYT • Tech groups warn over US online snooping FT • London house prices drop for first time in three years FT • Pimco shows that star investors are not really solo artists FT • German exports plunge in latest sign of slowdown FT • Businessmen are 'serfs' in Putin's Russia, wams Sergei Pugachev FT • Lord Bell's textbook for old school public relations FT • German weakness brings 'euroglut' of gloom FT • Sea, sun and easy visas lure China buyers FT EFTA_R1_00693073 EFTA02093092 • Neither party tells Britain the truth about the deficit FT • Fed fears market misreading of guidance FT • US political marketing: Tailored message FT • Parliament rejects Bratusek for European Commission job FT • Ajax and Arsenal come out on top in European financial league FT • Bankers fear new UK rules will scare off talent FT • Speech of passion and panache is a bit too late FT • Allergan: three's company Lex • Yum Brands: a fowl result Lex • Swisscom: keep on hold Lex • UK banks: every underdog has its day Lex • Churchill would be aghast at this Tory plan The Times • Brussels' green light for a nuclear future The Times • It's time to pick up your pension pot and carry it around with you The Times • Jim Armitage: Why trust a company which uses fake Twitter numbers? Independent • Solar energy and shale are the future, not costly nuclear power plants Independent • Jim Armitage: If state-controlled firms are so useless, how do they win so many UK deals? Independent • German model is ruinous for Germany, and deadly for Europe Telegraph • The time has come for Britain to back a Palestinian state Telegraph • Five million UK workers face uncertainty after tax bills wrongly calculated twice in HMRC blunder Telegraph • Iran backs down on Opec sending Brent oil price tumbling Telegraph • IMF warns period of ultra-low interest rates poses fresh financial crisis threat Guardian • Britain's economic recovery 'to stall' without campaign to boost exports Guardian • 8 lessons from Egypt in building a cleaner chemicals industry Guardian • Arbitrarily criminalising banking is a reckless way to reform British finance CitvAM EFTA_R1_00693074 EFTA02093093  Key Events This Week Friday: Treasury Monthly Budget Statement, IMF/World Bank annual meeting (Washington), Earnings (FAST, PGR) Key Events on the Horizon Oct — ECB "Comprehensive Assessment' results for European Banks (mid-October) Oct 18 — Options expiry Oct 23 — EU Leaders Summit begins (Brussels) Oct 26 — Brazil run-off election between incumbent Dilma Rousseff & center-right challenger Aecio Neves Oct 29 — FOMC rate announcement (expected to officially announce the end of monthly bond purchases at this meeting) Nov 4 — US mid-term elections Nov 9 — Potential referendum on independence in Catalonia (Spanish PM Rajoy will likely try to block vote from happening) This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential and intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed. 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