EFTA01141011.pdf

From: Vinit Sahni To: Tazia Smith Cc: "Nav Gupta (DEUTSCHE ASSET MANAG)" "jeffrey epstein" <[email protected]>, Subject: Re: PDVSA chart + USDJPY Trade [C] Date: Mon, 13 Jan 2014 11:47:06 +0000 Attachments: VENZ-Curve.png Inline-Images: unnamed; unnamed(1); unnamed(2) Classification: Confidential This attached image shows the current pricing on the curve, which is slightly weaker than it was in early December. I have also added the term structure of PDVSA and VENZ sovereign bonds, which gives us some relative value across the curve Bouts of volatility will likely remain an issue and therefore it will trade like a short tail risk trade. However, given that access to dollars remains key for Venezuela, we should expect the govemment to do whatever they can to avoid a problem servicing these bonds (or even the perception of the same). They do have a heavy amortization schedule in 2014 and 2015. Vinit Sahni Managing Director I Global Head - Protessional Client Group 8 Key Client Partners Capital Markels Group Deutsche Asset 8 Weallh Management 1051108 Old Broad St (Pinners Hall). EC2N 1EN London, United Kingdom »sa-to-K:fuPeiferrin From: Tazia Smit To: "jeffrey epstein" <jeevacation©gmail.com>. Cc: a> "Vind Sahn . -Nav Gupta (DEUTSCHE ASSET MANAG) Date: 12/01/2010 22:52 Subject: Re: PDVSA char! + USDJPY Trade (C] Classification: Confidential EFTA01141011 Looping in Vinit here as he was recently involved with a large offering in the pdvsa credit and may have some take-aways. My view is the bonds are money good in 2015, as of now, but you are not looking for yield carry (as discussed). and the risks of restructuring and near-term downside due to politics specific to venezuela and chatter around EM assets at large am likely greater than implied by the bonds' current —85 levels; would use Friday's rally to sell (particularly if you believe it was rates driven vs credit). For what it's worth, we've found Latam family offices that are very familiar the credit (and do like carry) are fully loaded and do not have incremental demand. Tazia Smith Director Key Client Partners - US Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc. Deutsche Asset & Wealth Management 345 Park Avenue - 26th Floor New York, NY 10154 From: Jeffrey Epstein [[email protected]] Sent: 01/12/2014 04:56 PM AST To: Tazia Smith Subject: Re: PVDSA chart + USDJPY Trade [C] do you think money good in 15 On Sun, Jan 12, 2014 at 4:38 PM, Tazia Smith <I wrote: Classification: Confidential Jeffrey: Please find the chart of PDVSA 5% 1CU28/15 price history below, as well as a descripbon of the USDJPY 10yr trade that we briefly discussed on Friday. Speak with you soon. Tazia EFTA01141012  PDVSA 5 10/28/15 $ 185.500 +1.500 1411.7 bp vs T 0.250 12/31/2015 As of 10 Jan Vol 989.0H OD 84.000 Hi 85.500 Lo 83.300 Yld 14.489 TRAC Used with permission of Bloomberg Finance LP, 1/10/14 -- Forwarded by Tazia Smt From: av up To: Tazia S Dale: 01/10/2014 08:21 AM Subject: SY (I] Classification: For internal use only Long SY Call Options. We like long expiry options to benefit from the present dislocation between interest rates and volatility Deutsche Bank FX Strategists are calling for USOJPY of 115 by year-end 2014. and 120 by year-end 2015. See DB FX Blueprint published 1/9/14. and note that #2 of the top 10 themes of 2014 (p. 5-6) revolves around extended weakness in the Japanese Yen vs. USD. Consider a 10year expiry SY call option struck at 85 (spot fx 105. forward fx 77.70). Price 4.7% of USD notional This option has four notable characteristics • If SY stays at these levels the option decays positively by approx 15-20% per year • If SY trades 90.00 at any time (arguably a scenario in which the option is no longer wanted) the option "knocks-our and becomes worthless. While SY might decline to 90. our quantitative analysis indicates the probability of such a decline is significantly (double?) overpriced by the options market • The premium of the option is quite sensitive to moves in SY spot - which is atypical for a 10year option. This also results from the knockout feature. This means if SY moves quickly by 5% the option increases / decreases in value by almost half, so If SY rises to 110 or 115 the option can easily be unwound to monetize the profit • The option costs roughly 1/3rd compared to the vanilla 85 strike call • Maximum loss is premium paid Nay Gupta EFTA01141013 Managing Director Deutsche Bank AG. Filiale London Deutsche Asset & Wealth Management 105/108 Old Broad St Pinners Hall). EC2N 1EN London, United Kingdom My proposed ideas are being delivered to you by the DeAWM Key Client Partners ("Ken London desk for discussion purposes only. and do not create any legally binding obligation on the part of Deutsche Bank AG and / or its affiliates ("DB"). These ideas are for the consideration of the intended recipients of this mail only. The KCP London desk does not provide investment advice. All intended recipients are Professional investors (as defined by MiFID). who understand the strategy. characteristics and risks associated with any ideas proposed herein and will be able to evaluate it independently. All trades on proposed ideas shall be subject to the relevant internal approvals prior to execution. Tazia Smith Director j Key Client Partners - US Deutsche Bank Securities Inc Deutsche Asset & Wealth Management 345 Park Avenue, 26th Floor New York, NY 10154 This communication may contain confidential and/or privileged information. If you are not the intended recipient (or have received this communication in error) please notify the sender immediately and destroy this communication. Any unauthorized copying, disclosure or distribution of the material in this communication is strictly forbidden. Deutsche Bank does not render legal or tax advice, and the information contained in this communication should not be regarded as such. The information contained in this communication is confidential, may be attorney-client privileged, may constitute inside information, and is intended only for the use of the addressee. It is the property of Jeffrey Epstein Unauthorized use, disclosure or copying of this communication or any part thereof is strictly prohibited and may be unlawful. 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