Re: Israel and Iran: Jewish People's Policy Institute of Jerusalem (JPPI)

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Extremely helpful. Thanks. On May 21, 2015 5:34 PM, "Eizenstat, Stuart" <[email protected]> wrote: > Dear Jake, > > > > I thought it might be useful for the campaign to give you a quick summary > of some of the points that were made at the JPPI conference we had on > Monday and Tuesday of this week at Glen Cove, New York. Dennis Ross and I > co-chair JPPI, which is based in Jerusalem, and was created by the Jewish > Agency of Israel ten years ago to be a think tank for strategic issues > facing Israel, the Diaspora, and USG-Israel relations. We have a group of > fellows, like retired General Michael Herzog (brother of the opposition > leader), Avi Gil and others. At the conference, we had Natan Sharansky, who > heads the Jewish Agency; leading Jewish organizational leaders (e.g. heads > of major UJA Federations around the country); leading rabbis (e.g. Norman > Kurtz in Chicago, and Eric Yoffie); academics from Harvard to UCLA; a > Member of the Canadian Parliament and former Cabinet Minister (Irwin > Cotler)l Middle East experts like David Makovsky, Martin Indyk, and, of > course, Dennis Ross, as well as Henry Kissinger and Eric Schmidt of Google, > who talked about high tech in Israel. Moreover, Malcolm Honlein, the > president of the Conference of Presidents of Major Jewish Organizations > (who I put together with Hillary through you and Huma), was there for the > whole two day conference. and spoke on several occasions. We had a > signficant number of Israelis there, as well. > > > > 1. ISRAEL > > > > (1) The new Netanyahu government has very little flexibility on the peace > process, given its right-wing tilt. > > > > (2) While solid majorities of the Israeli public (over 60%) continue to > support the two state solution, only a minority believe it is feasible, > given Palestinian intransigence. > > > > (3) A number of people, including, interestingly, Malcolm Honlein, felt > the Prime Minister should now accept the last Kerry offer as a basis for > resuming negotiations. Evidently, the last version given to Bibi did not > contain language on Jerusalem (which he cannot accept), while the last > version given to Abbas contained the language (but they still rejected it). > > > > (4) There was a clear consensus that the BDS/anti-delegitimization > movement against Israel was growing in Europe, and was an increasing threat. > > > > (5) There was a grave concern that the Obama Administration, once the Iran > nuclear negotiations are out of the way, will support some form of the > French proposal for a new UN Resolution to supplant UN Resolution 242, > endorsing the two-state solution, with 1967 borders, and with Jerusalem as > the capital of both Israel and a Palestinian state. Several people felt > that given the impasse in the peace process, Israel’s argument that this > should be left to negotiations, had a hollow ring to it. If this is going > to happen, then it should be framed in ways that force the Palestinians to > make tough choices, like ending claims to the “right of return”. But the > safest political position is to oppose what will be seen as an effort to > “impose” a solution both sides will reject. > > > > (6) There was a feeling on the part of some that Gaza was likely to > blow-up again, a combination of Hamas rearming and rebuilding their > tunnels, and the impact of the embargo, which has not been loosened. > > > > (7) Israel needed to be more creative to take advantage of the open window > for cooperating with the Sunni states (Saudi Arabia, the Gulf States, > Egypt, Jordan) against their common enemy, Iran. > > > > (8) Most troubling was the pervasive feeling that the US has withdrawn > from a leadership position in the Middle East, leaving our allies in the > Arab world, and Israel, to fend for themselves. The level of vitriol > against the President was striking, to such a degree that one participant > urged that he was being unfairly demonized. > > > > > > 2. ANTI-SEMITISM/ANTI-ZIONISM > > > > (1) There was genuine belief that there is a substantial rise in > anti-Semitism in Europe (a topic I addressed at some length). This is most > evident in France (where 7000 French Jews left in 2014 for Israel, with > almost double that amount expected this year); Belgium; parts of Sweden > (Malmo); the Netherlands; Greece; Hungary; Ukraine; but even in the UK. > Roger Cukierman, the long-time head of the CRIF, French Jewry’s central > organization, cited several examples of the growth of anti-Semitism during > my negotiations with the French government for payments for people deported > on the French railway during World War II, as Secretary Kerry’s Special > Adviser on Holocaust Issues. Thus, in 2001, when his first term began, 90% > of school-age French Jews attended public schools; now only 30% do so, > because of the intimidation in schools. It is dangerous to wear a kipot > (head-covering) on the Metro. Argentine Jews are also increasingly fearful, > in part because of their government’s close relations with Iran, which is > widely seen as having planned and funded the Hezbollah attacks in the > 1990s against the Jewish community center (AMIA), and the Israeli Embassy > in Buenos Aires. > > > > (2) Modern-day anti-Semitism is a product of a combination of factors: > > > > (a) Neo-Nazi/right wing parties, which have long had an anti-Semitic > strain, like Le Pen’s National Front in France. > > (b) Left-wing parties/academics, who oppose Israel’s settlement policy and > occupation and import their opposition on Jews, who are seen (wrongly) as > surrogates for Israel. > > (c) Angry, disaffected, unintegrated Muslim young people, who identify > with the Palestinians as the underdogs and address their anger for their > plight and that of the Palestinians at Jews in their countries. > > > > (3) French Prime Minister Valls estimates there are some 3000 > European-born Muslims fighting in Syria and Iraq, 1000 from France, who > come back to Europe, armed and trained jihadists. This was precisely the > profile of the suspect in the Brussels Jewish Museum attack last year. > > > > (4) The growth in anti-Semitism, and anti-Zionism is not limited to > Europe. There is a greater security fear among Jews in both the U.S., > Europe, and key Latin American countries. It was reported that 14 AEPi > fraternity houses on American campuses were subject to some form of > desecration. Several people said that “American campuses were our Europe”. > > > > (5) Malcolm Honlein placed special emphasis on the rise of anti-Semitism > in his remarks. He said that the Conference of Presidents of Major Jewish > Organizations was catalyzing efforts to create a Global Forum to deal with > this phenomenon, to track it, exchange information about it, and develop > new ways to combat it. He said that Israel had a role to play, as well. > > > > 3. DIVISIONS WITH THE AMERICAN JEWISH COMMUNITY OVER ISRAEL POLICY. > > > > (1) There are increasingly sharp left-right divisions (J Street vs. AIPAC) > within the American Jewish community over Israel. Remarkably, rabbis are > reluctant to discuss Israel in their sermons for fear of alienating one > faction or another. > > > > (2) There was now a big debate over which groups can march in the annual > New York City Israeli Independence Day parade, which take more liberal > positions (e.g., New Israel Fund, J Street). It was generally felt best to > have a “big tent” so the Democratic Party left-leaning people were not > excluded. > > > > (3) The kind of robust debate that occurs in Israel over Israeli policy, > is blunted here by attacks against those who oppose the current > government’s policies in the West Bank. > > > > (4) There was a clearly established (Pew and Gallup polls) drop in support > for Israel among self-identified Democrats (now under 50%, with over 80% > for Republicans). This could feed into making Israel a partisan issue (one > of the problems with Bibi’s speech to Congress) for the first time in its > history, a dangerous situation. > > > > 4. IRAN NUCLEAR NEGOTIATIONS AND BEYOND > > > > (1) This was the most emotional issue. Most of the participants who spoke > on the topic (Sharansky, Kissinger, Honlein, Makovsky, Ross) were deeply > skeptical of the Iranian nuclear negotiations. Clearly, Honlein and AIPAC > will mount a major effort to block the agreement. There was a real > foreboding (one participant called it a “panic”) that the American Jewish > community was going to be involved in a confrontation with the > Administration, that the Republicans would use to try to drive a further > wedge with Jewish voters over Israel-related issues. > > > > (2) At the same time, there was a recognition (e.g. Kissinger) that the > President would be able to overcome a veto override fight, although just > barely. > > > > (3) It was important to reassure Israel and Saudi Arabia and the Gulf > States that any nuclear deal with Iran did not presage broader cooperation > with Iran on regional issues. (Kissinger agreed, but felt it was inevitable > over time, because Iran is a real country, with a long history) > > > > (3) Several speakers (e.g. Ross) suggested that Israel should now begin to > talk with the White House about ways to repair the damage to the > relationship over the nuclear talks (if there is an agreement). Indeed, > the President proposed to Bibi, in his call after the formation of the > government, just that, but was rebuffed, seeing any cooperation as > signaling he was giving up the fight against the deal. > > > > (4) The options for a post-agreement reassurance included: > > > > (a) Reassurance that the agreement would not lead to a new U.S.-Iranian > alliance in the region, at the expense of our traditional alliances. > > (b) Sophisticated military weapons to defend themselves against a > resurgent Iran. > > (c) Defense treaties, that an attack by Iran would be considered an > attack against the U.S. (But this was fraught with difficulty; would it be > all forms of attack or only a nuclear attack) > > (d) Development of a common agenda with Israel, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and > the Gulf States. This has not been initiated. > > > > (5) The “snap-back” of sanctions was felt to be impractical. What would > constitute a violation? Who would make the determination? Which sanctions > would be re-imposed (US, EU, UN)? > > > > (6) There needed to be a clear declaration after the 10/15 year period of > the agreement, that a nuclear-armed Iran is unacceptable, and the U.S. > would every means to stop it. Likewise, the U.S. could not afford to > disengage from the region, and had to lead the coalition against Iran. > > > > (7) There was almost no one who subscribed to the Administration’s hope > that over the 10/15 year period of the agreement, the Iranian regime would > moderate. Far from it, the end of sanctions and the massive amount of money > that would flow to Iran would strengthen the regime, provide more funds to > support terrorist groups, and embolden them in the region. > > > > I hope this is helpful in shaping Hillary’s positions on these difficult > issues. But more broadly, she needs to understand the great angst in the > Jewish community over the cascade of challenges I have described. The > empathy and appreciation she can demonstrate, would itself be important and > reassuring. > > > > Best wishes, > > > > Stu Eizenstat >