EFTA01367369.pdf

31 May 2015 Integrated Oil US Integrated Oils U.S. Gulf of Mexico Near-term production in the GoM is expected to be supported by the ramp of YE 14 start-ups (Tubular Bells, Jack/St Malo) and the 2015/2016 (6 and 4 projects respectively) start-up of several key deepwater projects. While the projects are expected to add an incremental 350 mbpd of crude (2016 vs. 2014), the longer-term outlook (2018+) has less visibility beyond the contribution from a few (Appomattox) deep-water projects anticipated to be sanctioned this year. Sanctioning activity, lease sales, rig rates and announcements of early rig terminations will be monitored moving forward to assess incremental shifts in industry appetite for deepwater investment. In the shelf, we assume a 5% annual decline in the central gulf through 2020 with declines likely to accelerate toward the latter part of the forecast period resulting from decreased demand for acreage. Since 2006, average acreage value has declined from $300/acre to -$100/acre and declining further to $50/acre in the most recent bidding in March. Figure 92: GoM Production Outlook. 2014-2020e (Mbfd) Figure 93: Production by type (area chart of onshore vs. shallow vs. deepwater (Mb/d) 1600 2000 1400 1200 1500 1000 800 1000 600 400 500 200 0 0 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 ■Onshore (Cony) ■ Shallow water (Cony) ■Base • Growth Bbls eDeepwater (Com) sultra-deepwater (Com) Sew Data In aseciaaalenar. 1 Awn* Deem art. 154540A4acionr* 164 IFigure 94: Crude volume growth outlook by project status (Mb/d) 1400 , 'Figure 95: 2017 Production Swing (Bear vs. Bull) of -120 Mid 1500 1400 1400 I 1200 12C0 1000 1200 S00 1100 600 E 1000 400 100 200 400 0 700 0 0 0 0 5 14 14 — eu• mom &GM IP OMNI% *suds 4100 ew - Dewkign401 Prthetet D•do>ros - DIllosso Cow 46mbrio shit in gro•th vests • l't,a4 r.cks.lre A•ncw Daaa Bat Mad factinall. Sane Onsa So* Mod IArIMs.164 Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. Page 51 CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0058902 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00205086 EFTA01367369