News Update - August 20, 2015

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http://www.centerpeace.org ** Israel and the Middle East News Update ------------------------------------------------------------ ** Thursday, August 20 ------------------------------------------------------------ Click here for a printer-friendly version. (http://www.centerpeace.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/August-20.pdf) Headlines: * White House ‘comfortable’ with Tehran ‘Self-Inspecting’ Concept * US Reform Movement: We Can’t Choose Sides on Iran * Iran, Russia Reach Agreement on Delivery of S-300 Missiles * Pelosi: Democrats Have the Votes to See Iran Deal Through * Court Suspends Palestinian's Administrative Detention * Abbas Orders Palestinian Branch of Geneva Initiative Closed * Foreign Ministry Workers: We'll Delay Danon's Departure Commentary: * MSNBC: “Israeli Lawmaker: Iran Deal will Lower Nuclear Threat to Israel" - By [Insert Author Here] * Al Monitor: “Herzog: Abbas Worries about 'Losing Control' of West Bank” - By Ben Caspit ** Times of Israel ------------------------------------------------------------ ** White House ‘comfortable’ with ‘Self-Inspecting’ (http://www.timesofisrael.com/white-house-comfortable-with-iaea-deal-with-tehran-to-self-inspect-suspect-nuke-site/) ------------------------------------------------------------ The White House on Wednesday said it was “confident” in the abilities of the International Agency for Atomic Energy to monitor and inspect the possible military dimensions on Iran’s past nuclear work and was “comfortable” with confidential arrangements between the IAEA and Tehran to ensure compliance with the nuclear deal signed on July 14. “As the administration has said before — including in classified briefings for both chambers of Congress — we are confident in the agency’s technical plans for investigating the possible military dimensions of Iran’s former program, issues that in some cases date back more than a decade,” White House National Security Council spokesman Ned Price said Wednesday in response to an Associated Press report that revealed the IAEA would cede investigative authority of a suspected nuclear site to Tehran. ** Jerusalem Post ------------------------------------------------------------ ** US Reform Movement: We Can’t Choose Sides on Iran (http://www.jpost.com/Diaspora/Impossible-to-choose-side-in-Iran-debate-says-Reform-movement-412625) ------------------------------------------------------------ “There is simply no clarity that would support taking a position ‘for’ or ‘against’” the Iranian nuclear accord, the leaders of the American Reform Movement’s main institution organs asserted on Wednesday. In a joint statement, the Union for Reform Judaism, the Central Conference of American Rabbis, the Religious Action Center of Reform Judaism and the Association of Reform Zionists of America declined to take sides in the debate, instead asking American Jews to consider the “day after” and the repercussions of an acrimonious debate both upon communal cohesion and American-Israeli relations. The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action agreed upon in Vienna and currently up for review before Congress is “challenging to analyze,” the groups’ leaders wrote, citing arguments both for and against legislative approval. “We recognize that these arguments have merit: The JCPOA does present a way forward, there are real dangers to rejecting it, and it does not foreclose Iran’s ability to become a nuclear weapons threshold state.” ** Ha’aretz ------------------------------------------------------------ ** Iran, Russia Reach Agreement on S-300 Missiles (http://www.haaretz.com/news/world/1.671925) ------------------------------------------------------------ Iran and Russia have reached an agreement to deliver S-300 surface-to-air missile systems, Russia Today reported on Wednesday. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov was quoted as saying that "the topic is closed. We have reached full understanding on the matter together with our Iranian partners." It is still unclear whether the agreement lists three or four missile systems. Russian state arms producer Almaz-Antey in June said it would supply Iran with a modernized version of the S-300, among the world's most capable air defense systems, once a commercial agreement was reached. Russia says it canceled a contract to deliver S-300s to Iran in 2010 under pressure from the West. But President Vladimir Putin lifted that self-imposed ban in April following an interim nuclear deal between Iran and world powers. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, one of the most vocal critics of last month's final nuclear deal between Iran and world powers, has expressed Israel's "dismay" at Russia's decision to supply the S-300s to Tehran. ** AP ------------------------------------------------------------ ** Pelosi: We Have the Votes to See Iran Deal Through (http://www.timesofisrael.com/pelosi-house-democrats-will-sustain-obama-veto-on-iran-deal/) ------------------------------------------------------------ House Democrats have the votes, if necessary, to uphold President Barack Obama’s veto of a resolution against his Iran nuclear deal, Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi said Wednesday. Pelosi said that if such a vote were held today there would be enough support among House Democrats for Obama to prevail. That would take 146 House Democrats, and fewer than 60 have publicly declared their support so far. In an interview with The Associated Press, Pelosi declined to disclose her private vote count but expressed confidence in the outcome. “The president’s veto would be sustained” if the vote were held today, Pelosi said, adding she hopes it doesn’t get to that point. “But I feel very confident about it.” ** Ha’aretz ------------------------------------------------------------ ** Abbas Orders Pal. Branch of Geneva Initiative Closed (http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/.premium-1.672006) ------------------------------------------------------------ In yet another move to minimize the influence of his political opponents, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas on Thursday signed a presidential order for the closure of the Palestinian branch of the Geneva Initiative. The head of Palestinian Peace Coalition, an NGO devoted to implementing the Geneva Initiative, is Yasser Abed Rabbo, who was recently fired by Abbas from his post as PLO secretary general for voicing criticism against the Palestinian president. Palestinian Peace Coalition was founded after the Geneva Initiative was unveiled in 2003. The nonprofit is working to promote the two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict in various sectors of the Palestinian society and is also holding meetings between Palestinians and Israelis. ** Ynet News ------------------------------------------------------------ ** Court Suspends Pal.'s Administrative Detention (http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4692527,00.html) ------------------------------------------------------------ Israel's High Court on Wednesday evening announced it was suspending the administrative detention of hunger-striking Palestinian Mohammed Allaan. The court ruled that if Allaan's brain damage proves to be irreversible, the administrative order for his detention will be completely revoked. It was unclear whether the damage was reversible. The justices also ruled that if Allaan's condition improves, and in the event that he requests transfer to another hospital or turns to the authorities, or if there are problems or disagreements, the court will reconsider the case. Justice Rubinstein explained the reasoning behind the decision: "He does not pose a danger because of his medical condition, and so the administrative order is not active now," he wrote. He added that relatives and associates could now visit Allaan, subject to normal hospital guidelines. ** Ynet News ------------------------------------------------------------ ** Foreign Min. Workers: We'll Delay Danon's Departure (http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4692554,00.html) ------------------------------------------------------------ Foreign Ministry workers, who have been in a labor dispute with the government for ten days, announced that they were intensifying their efforts, and will be delaying the issuing of diplomatic passports for different recent nominations by Prime Minister Netanhayu. These include the diplomatic passports for new UN Ambassador Danny Danon, new Ambassador to Brazil Danny Dayan, and new Ambassador to Italy Fiamma Nirenstein. Workers hope these steps will encourage Prime Minister Netanyahu (who also currently serves in official capacity as foreign minister) to quickly resolve the dispute. ** MSNBC – August 19, 2015 ------------------------------------------------------------ ** Israeli Lawmaker: Iran Deal will Lower Nuclear Threat to Israel (http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/nuclear-threat-israel-will-be-lower-following-iran-nuclear-deal) ------------------------------------------------------------ By Omer Bar Lev After carefully studying the agreement between six world powers and Iran to prevent the development of an Iranian nuclear weapon, I have concluded that the nuclear threat to Israel as a result of the deal will be significantly lower for the coming years than it is today. Let me be clear – this is not a perfect deal. Indeed, the agreement contains fundamental flaws, such as allowing Iran to continue developing advanced centrifuges. But it also contains significant benefits for Israel that have not been sufficiently acknowledged in the debate over the agreement that has raged in my country. For example, Iran already possesses enough enriched uranium today to produce more than five nuclear bombs. Under the agreement, Iran must ship most of its enriched uranium out of the country. For the next 15 years, it will be allowed to retain only 300 kilograms of low enriched uranium. Since 1.5 tons of highly enriched uranium are required to make just one nuclear bomb, this is a huge positive. Additionally, beyond the verification and inspection mechanisms outlined in the deal, Israeli and U.S. intelligence have robust capabilities that will allow them to detect an Iranian violation if it occurs. Those who charge that the agreement increases the nuclear threat to Israel ignore these inconvenient facts. Some perhaps do so out of ignorance because they have not bothered to read the agreement. But others are undoubtedly doing so for political reasons, none more so than Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has deliberately misled the public. Mr. Netanyahu is deceiving the Israeli people by creating the perception that the implementation of the agreement and the removal of the sanctions depend solely upon the upcoming vote in the U.S. Congress. This could not be further from the truth. Already, Britain, France, Russia, China, as well as Germany and the United Nations Security Council itself, have voted to remove the sanctions as soon as the International Atomic Energy Agency confirms that Iran has upheld its part of the agreement. This includes Iran exporting its enriched uranium and shutting down the majority of its centrifuges. For those who might be confused about time frames, these steps are supposed to occur before the end of 2015. Now we must ask ourselves: What will the United States do? If Congress overrides President Barack Obama and rejects the deal, only American sanctions will remain in place. However, Article 36 of the agreement states that if one of the signatories does not abide by the agreement, Iran is allowed to reject the deal in its entirety and not uphold any of its commitments. Such a development would pose a double threat to Israel. First, it will create a reality in which most of the sanctions will have already been removed and billions of dollars already flowed into Iran. No doubt some of them will finance Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and other terror organizations in the Middle East and around the world. Second, Iran will be able to resume its nuclear weapons program without violating any international agreement or resolution, and Israel – whose relationship with the United States has been badly damaged by Netanyahu – will be left isolated and blamed for the collapse of the agreement. The strict implementation of the Iran nuclear agreement will significantly diminish the Iranian nuclear threat to Israel. It will allow Israel’s defense establishment to focus on preparing the country for any potential confrontation with Hamas or Hezbollah. Moreover, the country will be able to divert resources to prepare proper defenses so the home front is ready to deal with missiles and rockets that will surely rain down upon Israeli cities in any future confrontation. We should not take this lightly. If Israel had been party to the nuclear negotiations, or if we had been in close contact with the negotiators, we would likely have been able to shape a final agreement that would be far more favorable. However, given the reality we face, Israel would be best served if we objectively examined the situation rather than spreading fear and half-truths, which are nothing more than political tools. Omer Bar Lev is a Knesset Member representing the Zionist Union. ** Al Monitor – August 20, 2015 ------------------------------------------------------------ ** Herzog: Abbas Worries about 'Losing Control' of West Bank (http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2015/08/israel-herzog-abbas-meeting-ramallah-netanyahu-hamas-truce.html) ------------------------------------------------------------ By Ben Caspit His meeting with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas on Aug. 18 was an encounter Zionist Camp leader Isaac Herzog had requested some time ago — immediately after losing to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in the March 17 elections. The only way the Zionist Camp party leader could differentiate himself from Netanyahu was to meet with Abbas and to demonstrate an affinity for and commitment to any kind of diplomatic process. The problem was that the Palestinian leader was not exactly enthusiastic about the idea. Spring went, summer arrived and suddenly, while Herzog was vacationing with his family in Cyprus, the telephone call came from presidential spokesman Nabil Abu Rodeina: The chairman would be happy to see you, Herzog was told. They sat together in Ramallah for almost an hour and a half, just the two of them. As opposed to prior visits and meetings, this tête-à-tête was without fanfare: no media presence, no escorts nor other participants. Just Abbas and Herzog sat together, the two great losers of the previous year. Herzog had almost made it to the prime minister’s office when he lost to Netanyahu at the last minute and Abbas had remained the abandoned rear guard without an agenda, a diplomatic horizon, any kind of negotiations or international interest. Of the two of them, only Abbas is mulling possible retirement. Herzog, by contrast, is a relatively young politician who believes that his future is still before him. What pressed the veteran Palestinian leader to meet with Israel’s opposition chairman? The common assessment is that Abbas is very worried about telltale signs and publicity regarding real (though indirect) feelers between Israel and Hamas. Abbas is afraid of being left behind. A 10-year arrangement between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip is liable to make Abbas irrelevant. Therefore, if Netanyahu can talk to Hamas, Abbas’ main opposition, then clearly Abbas can talk to Herzog, Netanyahu’s main opponent. Herzog urged Abbas to join the contacts and attempt to create a larger package deal with Israel. Why should the Israeli government confine itself to talking to Gaza alone when it can raise the ante, adopt confidence-building measures and work for a settlement package deal for all the territories? “You have to ride this wave,” Herzog reportedly told Abbas, “You can’t let yourself remain behind.” After the meeting, Herzog told Al-Monitor, “This is a propitious time for the entire region; almost everyone is converging in the same place. The joint interests of the various players are mounting. Everyone wants peace and quiet; everyone wants to focus on their mutual enemies, which are Islamic State, Iran and the Shiites. Under such circumstances, Abbas cannot allow himself to lag behind. He also needs to take advantage of the situation and get on the bandwagon.” Asked what, exactly, Abbas should do, Herzog said, “He should set out his conditions for entering into the Gaza plan. Hamas should not be allowed to come out on top from everything that’s been going on recently. We can still find ourselves in a situation in which Hamas brings 10 years of calm to Gaza allowing for prosperity, while Mahmoud Abbas finds himself on the cusp of a third intifada in Ramallah. Instead, everyone should be able to profit and Abbas, who truly fights terror and is a legitimate leader, cannot be left behind.” At the same time, Netanyahu’s government denies reports about contacts with Hamas. “Not directly, not through another country and not through intermediaries," read an official statement released by the prime minister's office at the beginning of the week, stating that Israel has no contacts with Hamas and there is no agreement in the pipeline. If so, how can one explain the current reality in which numerous figures headed by former Quartet envoy Tony Blair are diligently running the course between Gaza and Israel? It’s very simple: This is Netanyahu’s method. Netanyahu will always make sure he has wiggle room for denial. He’ll send faceless emissaries that he can repudiate at the moment of truth along the lines of “it’s only an American proposal” or “non-binding, unofficial contacts.” And that is exactly the situation this time around, as well. The contacts with the Palestinians in Gaza are coordinated by the Israeli security apparatus. At the head of the pyramid stands Yoav (Poli) Mordechai, the coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories. An Arab newspaper actually proposed, humorously, that Mordechai replace Abbas after the latter retires. Mordechai, who speaks fluent Arabic and makes numerous appearances on the Arab electronic media outlets in the Middle East, has become a familiar figure on practically every screen from Gaza to Cairo, Ramallah and Amman. One of the problems is trust. Abbas does not trust the Hamas leadership at all, and vice versa. The chasms separating the two entities are deeper than their commonalities. At the same time, the situation in the West Bank is continuing to deteriorate. “I am worried about losing control,” Abbas admitted to Herzog, according to diplomatic sources. “Our streets are raging; the murder in Douma fanned the flames.” Abbas asked President Reuven Rivlin as well as Prime Minister Netanyahu to do everything possible to apprehend the murderers of the Dawabsha family. (The toddler, Ali, and his father, Saad, died of their wounds, and another son and the mother are still fighting for their lives.) Abbas feels that in order to restore peace, it is imperative to capture the murderers and serve justice to them. Then Herzog spoke to Abbas about the wave of terror attacks from the Palestinian side, including the daily stabbings of Israelis, the hurling of Molotov cocktails and stones, and a general deterioration of the territory to a dangerous level. Abbas detailed the Palestinian Authority’s anti-terror activities but claimed that he is unable to pinpoint and arrest every Palestinian with a knife who decides to retaliate. Abbas also complained about the open-fire policies of the Israel Defense Forces and other security forces. In most cases, Abbas argued, the attackers could have been neutralized by shooting at their feet, and some of them have been shot when they no longer posed a threat. The bottom line is that Abbas warned about a third intifada. The pressure cooker is heating up, he says, and eventually it may explode. In his meeting with Herzog, Abbas verified the reports regarding his deliberations over retiring. Abbas’ resignation threats are viewed by the Israeli security apparatus as serious, more serious than in the past. There is no diplomatic expectation, global interest in the Palestinian problem is dissipating, the Arab countries are busy with their own trials and tribulations, the political situation in the territories is touchy and the economic situation is hard. Most worrisome of all is that currently there are no signs of renewing negotiations and no responsible party (the Americans?) interested. Abbas is already over 80 years old. He is tired and in constant danger, as swathes of the Palestinian people view him as a traitor who cooperates with the Israel security system. “Ultimately, he’ll break [under the pressure] sometime or other,” an IDF source said on condition of anonymity, though no one knows exactly when that might happen. Former President Shimon Peres celebrated his 92nd birthday this week and has no intentions of ever retiring. The question is whether Abbas is a chip off Peres’ imperishable material. If Abbas really does pick up and leave, said Herzog, Israel will find itself missing him. He emphasized that there is no doubt that Abbas is the first Palestinian leader who truly fought against terror and chose the diplomatic route. "I’m not naive," he added. "There is no permanent arrangement on the agenda, but we really could show some creativity. We could adopt financial and other steps such as confidence-building. We have to do everything to bring back hope." ============================================================ S. Daniel Abraham Center for Middle East Peace 633 Pennsylvania Ave. NW, 5th Floor, Washington, DC 20004 ** www.centerpeace.org (http://www.centerpeace.org) 2015 S. Daniel Abraham Center for Middle East Peace, All rights reserved. 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