EFTA01459059.pdf

Deutsche Bank Securities Inc IFigure 6: S&P 2016 EPS scenarios C cn m Poor globalBroth (Oita -5%) .o o c. A continued walk recession, yet 2%. US 'mirth with low credit costs 3 Forum FX A pxsIble wide some, Dts base caselot 2016 MP (15 but decent US and global GOP growth Tight US labor St Fed lads >1% in 2016 Global recession and flat US GDP g Sales% Profits % 2015 2016 y/y 2016 EPS 2015 2016 yh 2016885 2015 2016 y/y 1016 EPS 2°15 2016 sit 1016 EPS 2015 2016 y/y 2016 EPS Cons Onc 27% 25% 1153 128 10.8% 14.39 1155 125 82% 14.05 115.5 125 82% 14.05 115.5 122 56% 13.72 115.5 110 -4.8% 12.37 C ,,, 0 Coos StaDleS 28% 28% 853 89 4.1% 10.01 864 87.5 2.3% 9.84 864 853 00% 9.61 85.5 IS -06% 9.56 85.5 $3 .2.9% 9.33 CP Emily 41% 20% 45 60 333% 6.75 45 52 li b% 5.85 45 33 .33.3% 3.37 45 30 .33.3% 3.37 45 20 -55.6% 2.15 ;marvels 18% 15% 218 234 7.3% 26.31 218 230 SS% 25.86 218 233 53% 25.86 218 233 6.7% 26.16 218 210 .3.7% 23.61 tiniith Care 20% 20% 1543 168 83% 1889 1543 165 62% 1835 154.5 161 42% 18.10 151.5 160 3174 17.99 154.5 1.58 2.3% 17.76 Industnals 36% 35% 115 120 4.3% 13.49 115 117 1.7% 13.15 115 105 -8.7% 11.80 115 100 -110% 11.24 115 90 -21.7% 1012 Tech 59% 37% 225 242 7.6% 27.21 225 739 62% 26.87 225 232 3.1% 26.06 225 225 0.0% 25.30 225 210 -6.7% 23.61 Maenak 49% 40% 303 34 12.2% 3.82 30.3 32.5 73% 3.65 30.3 23 33% 3.26 30.3 26 44.2% 2.92 313 23 -24,1% 2.59 telecom 1% 0% 333 323 -3.0% 3.65 334 385 .30% 3.65 33.5 323 .34% 3.65 33.5 32 -4.5% 3.60 33.5 30 -10.4% 3.37 Umbmes 6% 6% 33A 343 33% 3.88 33.4 34.5 33% 3.88 33.4 34.5 3.3% 3.66 33.4 34 1.6% 3.82 33.4 32.5 -2.7% 3.6$ S&P 500 31% 25% 1665.7 1142 62% 128.39 1665.7 1115 56% 125.35 1055.7 10643 0.8% 119.68 1065.7 1044.7 89% 117.6$ 1055.7 9665 -8.4% 108.66 perthrt $119 $121 $119 $125 $119 $119 Stu $119 Avg ad price $47 $60 $47 $55 $47 $40 $47 $40 Se 535 two 110 1.10-1.15 1.05 1.05 805 030 1/6 0.90 1.05 0.85 Avg IT rate 0.2% 875% 0.2% 0.50% 0.2% 0.50% 0.2% 1.2% 82% 0.25% US UE yr end 50% 4.7% 5336 4.7% DA 4.7% 5.0% 4.4% 5.0% 6.5% 15 GDP 23% 2.5-3% 23% - 73% 2.5% '2.5% 2.5% 2.25% 2.5% 0.5% Global GOP 3% 35% 3% '0% 3% 10% 3% 2.5% 3% 1.5% Severs Dant". San. Figure 7- S&P annual EPS rule-of-thumb sensitivities Rules of thumb sensitivities Oil prices: Every $S/bbl decline in oil prices reduces S&P net income by roughly $7.Sbn or nearly $1EPS Dollar FX rates: Every 10% appreciation in the dollar vs. mature currencies (DXV) tends to reduce S&P net income by $20bn or - $2.50 of EPS FF rate: Every 25bp on the FF rate, if it similarly moves net interest margins at banks is - $0.S0 to SW US GDP: S&P EPS is most sensitive to US investment spending on equipment and software and exports Global GDP: S&P EPS tends to be more sensitive to global GDP than US GDP Satre Oeursene elant 0 Co CONFIDENTIAL — PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0119272 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00265456 EFTA01459059