The Daily 202 P.M. Special: The Ben Carson Factor, and six other things to watch during tonight’s Republican debate

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SPECIAL: THE BEN CARSON FACTOR, AND SIX OTHER THINGS TO WATCH DURING TONIGHT’S REPUBLICAN DEBATE <http://link.washingtonpost.com/click/5510944.149601/aHR0cDovL3d3dy53YXNoaW5ndG9ucG9zdC5jb20vbmV3cy9wb3dlcnBvc3Qvd3AvMjAxNS8xMS8xMC90aGUtZGFpbHktMjAyLXAtbS1zcGVjaWFsLXRoZS1iZW4tY2Fyc29uLWZhY3Rvci1hbmQtc2l4LW90aGVyLXRoaW5ncy10by13YXRjaC1kdXJpbmctdG9uaWdodHMtcmVwdWJsaWNhbi1kZWJhdGUvP3dwbW09MSZ3cGlzcmM9bmxfZGFpbHkyMDI/5483d5bc3b35d0d76d8c549cCfd9e9c78> Donald Trump and Ben Carson after the CNBC debate in Boulder (Reuters/Evan Semon) THE BIG IDEA: Good evening from The Post newsroom. Our team is preparing to once again flood the zone for tonight’s Fox Business debate. We also have half a dozen journalists on site in Milwaukee. The undercard face-off starts at 7 p.m. Eastern and lasts one hour. The main event with the top eight candidates begins at 9 p.m. EST and lasts two hours. If you’re watching at home, I strongly encourage you to follow along on our robust live blog. It’s accessible here. What are the pros watching for? I asked my colleagues on the politics team what they’re following tonight. Here were the common threads that emerged: — The early debate will be worth watching: “This is a night when the undercard debate might draw as much post-game discussion as the main debate, given the rearrangement of the participants,” says Dan Balz, our chief correspondent. There will be four guys on stage: Chris Christie and Mike Huckabee join for the early hour given their dropping poll numbers. Bobby Jindal and Rick Santorum, who has been under the weather this week, qualified. But Lindsey Graham, George Pataki and Jim Gilmore did not.  Abby D. Phillip wonders: “Will the new additions to the kiddie table come out fighting in an effort to break through and regain their old spots on the big stage?” Ben Carson in Puerto Rico on Sunday (Reuters/Alvin Baez) — In the main event, all eyes will be on BEN CARSON: “Carson has largely been ignored by his rivals in the first three debates,” The Fix’s Chris Cillizza e-mails. “But now he’s the frontrunner. He’ll get some incoming … How does he handle it?” Carson aides say he’ll fight back if provoked, but thus far we have not seen the neurosurgeon show that he has fire in the belly during the debates. How will the other candidates on stage handle the soft-spoken neurosurgeon? Philip Rucker mulls over possible attack lines but predicts that some candidates might give Carson cover. “Will any of his opponents try to take him down or question his policy know-how and readiness to be commander-in-chief? … Or will they leap to Carson’s defense and attack the mainstream media in an attempt to pander to the doc’s supporters?” More specifically, what will Donald Trump say to or about Carson? “During the last debate, Trump mostly refrained from attacking his opponents, a rather out-of-character thing for him to do,” says Jenna Johnson, who has been traveling with The Donald. “And he left Carson alone. In the two weeks since then, Trump has aggressively questioned Carson’s qualifications for office, negotiating skills and honesty. Will that continue on the debate stage? Or will Trump once again try to be the nice guy?” As Rucker notes, it’s one thing to spout off on Twitter. It’s something else to do so under the bright lights of the debate stage. Can Carson stay cool? Pollster Scott Clement will be watching how Carson defends questions about his honesty. “Our Post-ABC poll last month found that Carson is viewed as the most honest candidate in the race, but recent news of his claims about a West Point scholarship threaten a core part of his appeal,” he writes. “The latest polling shows little damage so far, but the debate marks a high-profile forum where he will have to defend himself.” Maria Bartiromo is co-moderating the debate with Neil Cavuto of the Fox Business Network and Wall Street Journal editor-in-chief Gerard Baker. — How hands off will the moderators be? Editor Amy Gardner notes that the questioners will face a high level of scrutiny from various camps. “The campaigns will be ready to pounce on any perceptions of bias or tone,” she writes. “But the rest of us will be looking to see how prepared they are, how well they can hold the candidates’ feet to the fire on their records and the truthfulness of their statements — since CNBC did such a poor job on this front last time.” The Fix’s Callum Borchers interviewed moderators Maria Bartiromo and Neil Cavuto. Read the Q&A here. Marco Rubio holds a sword presented to him by Jeb Bush in 2005 during much happier days (AP Photo/Phil Coale) — Will there be a second Jeb Bush-Marco Rubio fight? The stakes are again high for the floundering Bush. Ed O’Keefe notes that the New York Times report that Jeb’s Right to Rise super PAC may attack Rubio’s staunch anti-abortion rights record quickly infuriated the wider GOP world and some of Bush’s most loyal donors. “That’s not Jeb, that’s not his nature, that’s not him,” one told Ed this morning. O’Keefe wonders: “So what does Bush think about it? What does he say in response to questions if they arise? Is he ready to punch back if rivals question him on specifics or take cheap, easy shots? And what, if anything, did star media coach Jon Kraushar advise him to do? Will it be evident tonight in some way?” If Jeb gets a good zinger in, will one of his rivals point out that he got a new media coach? Balz adds: “It’s a night that could be more illuminating in scrubbing the policy proposals and differences among the candidates. But the pre-debate salvos by the Bush and Rubio forces foreshadow another moment of conflict between the principals.” Donald Trump walks on stage in Springfield, Illinois, last night. (Reuters/Jim Young) — Will Donald Trump show that he’s serious about policy? “Coming off of a highly-rated turn on ‘Saturday Night Live,’ Trump remains in the spotlight and near the top of the polls,” says Robert Costa. “His rally in Illinois on Monday drew thousands. Unlike others on stage, his challenge tonight won’t be getting attention but drawing attention to one of his policy proposals, and doing so in a compelling way. Most voters know about his bravado, they know about his success, and they cheer his shots at rivals. But if he can leave with viewers better informed about his platform, he will have succeeded.” Ted Cruz in Des Moines last Friday (Reuters/Mark Kauzlarich) — Can Ted Cruz continue his momentum? “The Texas senator has been riding high after a breakout performance in the last debate and increasing poll numbers,” says Katie Zezima, the Cruz beat reporter. “His campaign is taking a slow, steady, approach to the race so far, but tonight will be a crucial test to see if he can have another moment and continue the momentum. One of the key things to watch is whether Cruz will jab at specific opponents. The candidate has pledged not to speak ill of others running for the nomination, but in recent weeks he has been subtly – and sometimes not so subtly – drawing policy and ideological comparisons between himself and other candidates, namely fellow Senator Rubio.” He called him a moderate last week. Marco Rubio stands for selfies in Pewaukee, Wisconsin, last night (Daniel Acker/Bloomberg) — Will Rubio answer for his conservative apostasies and messy personal finances? Or will he successfully dodge again? “Marco Rubio has drawn attention recently for his messy personal financial record, and there are obvious questions for a guy who couldn’t seem to get his debt under control even in the years he received a $300,000 annual fee from a big Florida lobbying and law firm,” says Tom Hamburger, our campaign finance maestro. “But the more interesting money-related questions for Rubio are bigger. As the Wall Street Journal editorial page noted last week, ‘Mr. Rubio has many talents, but one trait the presidential campaign has exposed is a tendency to hedge on his principles when he thinks it’s politically beneficial.’ That may or may not be true. The question for Rubio is:  how do you explain using your office to push for a couple of policies that seem to conflict with basic conservative principles?” Tom adds: “This year, Rubio signed up to back legislation drafted in part by lawyers for mega donor Sheldon Adelson that would regulate online gambling, which Adelson, the owner of the Las Vegas Sands, has declared morally abhorrent. Next, Rubio has embraced a sugar subsidy with costs to the treasury and consumers that is opposed by leading conservatives but is backed by another GOP megadonor — Pepe Fanjul,  one of the world’s leading sugar magnates.” Last time, Rubio easily parried serious questions about his record because they were asked in a needlessly confrontational and ham-handed way by CNBC moderators. It will be much harder to claim that an inquiry from Fox Business is a discredited smear.  — Once again, please follow The Post’s debate live blog tonight. You can see it here. After tonight, the next Republican debate is not until December 15 — five weeks from now! — in Las Vegas.  Jimmy Carter presents Trisha Yearwood with an award in Nashville last week. (Sanford Myers/Invision/AP) GET SMART FAST: Jimmy Carter says doctors have found no new signs of cancer and that he is responding well to treatments. (AP) President Obama endorsed amending the 1964 Civil Rights Act to include banning discrimination based on sexual orientation and gender identity. (Juliet Eilperin) Obama will try to appeal the 5th Circuit’s ruling against his executive order to stop deportations to the Supreme Court (David Nakamura) Andrew Cuomo will use executive authority to create a $15 minimum wage for all New York state workers. (New York Times) The FBI charged two Richmond men with plotting gun and bomb attacks on African American churches and Jewish synagogues. (Matt Zapotosky) The University of Missouri created an “interim vice chancellor for inclusion” position in wake of the school’s president and chancellor resigning amid allegations they did not properly handle racially-charged incidents on campus. (NYT) The Justice Department filed an antitrust lawsuit to block a deal between Delta and United airlines that would give United a stranglehold of the competition at the Newark airport. (Ashley Halsey III) R&B legend Allen Toussaint died of a heart attack at age 77. (J. Freedom du Lac) SOCIAL MEDIA SPEED READ Curated by Elise Viebeck (@eliseviebeck) Here’s a shot of the media filing center from the RNC’s Sean Spicer: (seanmspicer) The WiFi password is appropriate for a GOP debate (“Stop Hillary”): (@bennyjohnson) Ahead of the debates, Marco Rubio explored the host city: (@marcorubio) Donald Trump apparently got a Secret Service code name: (@edhenry) John Kasich did some debate warm-up — literally — with the Milwaukee Bucks (check out video from The Post’s Phil Rucker here): (johnkasich) Mike Huckabee visited Distinctive Guitar on S. Howell Ave in Milwaukee: (govmikehuckabee) Chris Christie did a walk-through of the debate stage at the Milwaukee Theater: (chrischristie) A local resident, Paul Zasadny, provided some pre-debate entertainment, via CNN’s Betsy Klein: (@betsy_klein) Outside of debate world, Bill Clinton took over the Clinton Foundation’s Instagram account for his trip to Latin America: (clintonfoundation) Martin O’Malley wished his son, William, a happy birthday: (@MartinOMalley) Caitlyn Jenner posted a photo with Madeleine Albright and actress Judith Light from Glamour magazine’s 25th annual Women of the Year awards: (caitlynjenner) VIDEOS OF THE DAY: Ben Carson trolled the media ahead of the Republican debate: (@RealBenCarson) Last night, Seth Meyers took Carson to task for inconsistencies in his biography: (Late Night with Seth Meyers) Claire McCaskill and Amy Klobuchar appeared together on “The Late Show” with Stephen Colbert: (The Late Show with Stephen Colbert) Hillary Clinton laughed when a supporter said he wanted to “strangle” Carly Fiorina (naturally, the RNC and American Crossroads pounced): (YouVoteNews) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Twitter <http://link.washingtonpost.com/click/5510944.149601/aHR0cHM6Ly90d2l0dGVyLmNvbS9Qb3dlclBvc3Q_d3BtbT0xJndwaXNyYz1ubF9kYWlseTIwMg/5483d5bc3b35d0d76d8c549cC8ab7eb75> - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - You are receiving this e-mail because you signed up for the The Daily 202 or were registered on washingtonpost.com or were invited as a VIP. 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