EFTA01459569.pdf

U.S. Dollar Downshifting its Pace Dollar in Tightening Cycle Tightening Trends 25% Nov 76 Nov 82 Aug 86 Sep 92 Nov 98 Jun 03 20% 2016 May 81 Aug 84 May 89 Feb 96 May 00 Jun 06 15% 10% JPN Yes No Yes No No Yes Easing 5% EU Yes Yes Yes No Yes Yes Easing 0% CAN Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes No -5% GBR Yes Yes Yes Yes No Yes Possibly -10% 4 CHE Yes No Yes No Yes Yes No -15% AUD Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes No -20% NZL N/A NA Yes Yes Yes Easing 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 SWE Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes No - 12/1/1976 8.7 1980 3/27/1984 -^^12/16/1986 241994 NOR Yes Yes Yes No Yes Yes Easing - 3/29/1988 6/30/1999 6002004 Total 8 6 8 5 7 9 1 Start of Cycle •larn +3arn +6arn •9arn •12arn 12/1/1976 -2.2% -1.2% •1 7% -2.0% -4.9% 8/7/1980 -1.1% 2.0% 4.6% 10.5% 19.7% 3/27/1984 2.0% 5.8% 10.4% 13.1% 14.2% - Historically, global central banks move in tandem 12/16/1986 -5.3% -7 1% -8.6% .93% -16.4% when raising interest rates. 3/29/1988 0.0% 5.6% 7.1% 1.8% 6.1% 2/4/1994 -0.9% -2.4% -4.5% -7.3% -5.2% — However, in the onset of this tightening cycle, only 6/30/1999 -2.0% -4.3% -3.3% -0.9% 0.4% one other central bank (BoE) appears to be ready 1- 6/30/2004 0.5% -2.4% -9.1% -7.5% -2.3% to hike interest rates in 2016. I Avenge -1.1% -0.5% *OS% -0.2% 1.4% eI u i i Median -1.0% -LS% -2.5% -1.4% -0.9% I. JJ Footnotes: Time period is considered a tightening cycle when the Fed raises rates three or more consecutive times. The tightening cycle is considered over al the last rate hike. # of days is calendar days. Foomotes Data as of December 2015. Source: FactSt4, Deutsche Bank Wealth Management SCHirCe. NUISChe Bank Global Markets, Deutsche Sank Wealth Management Deutsche Bank Wealth Monilgernent 16 CONFIDENTIAL — PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0 120065 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00266249 EFTA01459569