EFTA01449288.pdf

28 February 2013 Exchange Rate Perspectives Deutsche Bank El Figure 13: In EM, the main driver of reserve growth has Figure 14: In EM, the dollar share fell steadily during been intervention (in USD bn) 2002-04 then stabilized 2700 2703 to Total rum* m EM wwr.ut lows, <9i5 2300 3300 70 70 total quirMy Omni. S US eleiss 1900 1900 so Eons 60 —Total yoluabn dims* — Yen 1500 1500 50 — 9607e 60 1103 1100 — Deb, Frain 40 ---0001CUINneen 700 700 90 30 303 300 20 20 -10) -100 10 10 1999 2001 2002 2004 2005 2007 2008 2010 2011 0 0 04 02 04 02 04 02 04 02 04 1 99 2000 2002 2003 2005 2006 2008 2009 2011 2012 01 03 01 03 01 03 01 03 01 03 Swes CO A ' ,elem., Scumm COS 0,1 , 0 15 away,. Figure 15: First active diversification, then leaning Figure 16: China has steadily diversified away from USD against the wind since 2004 (our estimates) 15 000 5°0 -225 Diventilloben Leaning us: en against the -175 10 nd - 2500 -125 50 - 2000 5 - -75 ID 19:4 0 -25 011150 m CIMfa I 000 70 25 I0 -5 - • 0 Ca100e a EIJILMO is in 41 75 5.5590 Olt-9910.0l 0002 tuned Ote-03 .007 Oec.08 -un-10 00 I I i5n• I2 ... .Etefr Mao a ma paiman - EUR shasol apa. OM,* 125 210)02 24 20MCU 20a On MOW loCti ea tenet Scam CORR IMF. :mace OS trexanefXRannen, Deutsche Bank AG/London Page 43 CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0104631 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00250815 EFTA01449288