EFTA01449377.pdf

28 February 2013 Exchange Rate Perspectives Deutsche Bank Fig 13: U.S. Exports and Imports of Goods and Services (Balance of Payments Basis) (last 13 months) Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Units 2011 2011 2011 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 Exports tUSS On.) 177.8 178.6 180.2 184.7 182.5 183.1 185.5 183.3 181.5 187.1 180.6 182.5 186.4 Imports (USS bn.) 229.5 230.9 224.7 236.4 232.2 230.1 226.5 225.0 224.2 227.5 222.8 231.1 224.9 Trade Balance (USS bn.) -51.7 -52.3 -44.6 -51.7 -49.7 -47.0 -40.9 -41.7 -42.7 -40.4 -42.2 -48.6 -38.5 Export & Import Growth Exports (y-o-y%l /4% 83% 8.2% 6.0% 3.9% 4.2% 1.5% 2.8% 1.1% 3.6% 1.0% 3.3% 4.9% Imports (y-cnr%l 11.3% 7.1% 6.3% 7.9% 5.9% 3.0% 1.6% 0.5% 0.5% 1.1% -0.7% 2.5% -2.0% Growth Ditterential -3.9% -0.8% 1.8% -1.9% -20% 1.2% 5.9% 2.3% 1.3% 2.5% 1.8% 0.8% 6.8% Fig 14: U.S. Export and Import Orders (ISM Survey) (last 13 months) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Units 2010 2011 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2011 2012 2012 2013 Export Orders (index' 52.0 53.0 55.0 59.5 54.0 59.0 53.5 47.5 46.5 47.0 48.5 48.0 47.0 Import Orders (indext 49.0 54.0 52.5 54.0 53.5 53.5 53.5 53.5 50.5 49.0 49.5 475 48.0 Exp.-Imp. Orders 3.0 -1.0 2.5 5.5 0.5 5.5 0.0 .6.0 -4.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.5 -1.0 Fig 15: Regional Breakdown of U.S. Trade Balance (USS bn.) (1998.20101 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Canada -51.9 -52.8 -48.2 -51.7 -66.5 -78.5 -71.8 -68.2 -78.3 -21.6 -28.5 -34.5 -31.8 Mexico -24.6 -30.0 -37.1 -40.6 -45.2 -49.9 -64.5 -74.8 -64.7 -47.8 -66.4 -64.5 -61.3 brazil 1.5 1.4 -3.4 -6/ -/.3 -9.1 -7.5 -1.5 1.8 6.0 11.5 11.2 11.6 Western Europe -59.4 -64.8 -88.4 -98.9 -112.8 -125.6 -118.5 -109.0 -93.9 -61.1 -60.8 -63.2 -66.4 Germany -29.1 -29.1 -35.9 -39.3 -45.8 -50.6 -47.9 -44.7 -43.0 -28.2 -34.3 -49.5 -59.7 U.K -1.8 -0.7 -7.5 -9.0 -10.4 -12.5 -8.1 -6.9 -5.0 -1.8 -1.4 4.6 -0.1 Japan -81.6 -69.0 -/0.0 -66.0 -/6.2 -83.3 -WI -84.3 -/4.1 -44.1 48.1 -63.2 -16.3 China -83.8 -83.1 -103.1 -124.1 -162.3 -202.3 -234.1 -258.5 -268.0 -226.9 -273.1 -295.4 -315.1 Hong Kong 3.1 4.4 3.3 4.7 6.5 7.5 9.8 12.9 15.0 17.5 22.3 32.0 32.0 South Korea -12.5 -13.0 -13.0 -13.2 -20.0 -16.2 -13.6 -13.2 -13.4 -10.6 -10.0 -13.2 -16.6 Singapore -1.4 2./ 1.4 1.4 4.0 5.4 6.1 7.2 1.2.0 6.5 11.6 12.1 10.3 Taiwan -16.1 -15.3 -13.8 -14.2 -13.0 -13.2 -15.5 -12.4 -11.4 -9.9 -9.8 -15.5 -14.6 U.S. Total -4773.8 4500.8 -5071.2 -5782.8 -7067.4 -8290.8 -13814.4 -8579.2 -8820.5 -5469.5 -69oa2 -7854.6 -7881.2 Sowct Dadr~ 00ttik Deutsche Bank AG/London Page 35 CONFIDENTIAL — PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0104766 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00250950 EFTA01449377