EFTA01457202.pdf

27 March 2015 US Fixed Income Weekly A final caveat One aspect that this framework does not control for (which may impact valuation slightly) is differences in the TBA collateral characteristics between Ginnie Mae II and Fannie Mae, such as WAC, WALA and geographic concentration. For example, the model loads FNCL 4.5%s at 4.85 GWAC, and G2SF 4.5%s at 4.96 GWAC. Fair value in spec: pools In specified pools, a careful statistical analysis suggests that 4.5% coupons may be undervalued across loan balance stories, while CR pools may be overvalued across 3.0% through 4.5% coupons (Figure 7). Loan balance and CQ 4.0%s also look undervalued in our model —but not to such a significant extent that we can rule out model error. Hedge-adjusted carry over TBA also continues to improve in higher coupons, with 4.5% loan balance and high-LTV pools projecting 4/32s to 6/32s of advantage, and loan balance 4.0%s around 1/32 to 2/32s. The model fair value for high-LTV pools is the result of a new permutation of our model building on the previous work done on loan balance pay-ups. (Figure 7: Modeling spec pay-ups suggests 4.5%s undervalued, CR overvalued Type Cpn Act Px Mdl Px Act-Mdl ZScore HAC 3.00 -0-060 -0-113 0-053 0.5 -0-004 3.50 0.280 0.176 0.102 1.2 -0.025 CO 4.00 1-260 2-011 -0.071 -0.6 0-001 4.50 3-000 3-02 5 -0-02 5 -0.2 0.051 3.00 -0-06 0 -0-28 3 0-22 3 2.3 -0-010 3.50 0-240 0.103 0-135 1.5 -0-036 CR 4.00 1-220 1-063 0-15 5 1.3 0-00 2 4.50 3-000 2-100 0-220 2.3 0-067 3.00 0.080 0-181 -0-101 -1.2 -0-010 3.50 1-04 0 1-03 7 0-001 0.0 -0-03 6 LLB 4.00 2-040 2-103 -0-063 -0.9 O-001 4.50 3-000 5-044 -2-044 -8.4 0-046 3.00 0-060 0-110 -0-050 -1.0 -0-005 3.50 0-300 0-286 0-012 0.2 -0-025 MLB 4.00 1-260 2.001 -0-061 -0.9 O-023 4.50 2-22 0 4-156 -1-25 6 -7.3 O-042 3.00 O-040 0-067 -O-027 -0.8 -0-000 3.50 O-180 O-182 -0-002 -0.1 -0-024 HLB 4.00 1-100 1-152 -0-052 -0.9 O-013 4.50 2-000 3-03 2 -1-03 2 -5.1 0-046 NOW as of COB. CORON 5. all hoofs indscauve BAC based on Mar/Apr TM (Idler roll. spec pool carry cskulased moo 1M CPA and hedge moo based on modal (Mac a taboo wish 'reality check' cap adpustmems made for model NRs greeter then ISM of TBA. San* - Bon nobtooir .1 Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. Page 3/ CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SONY-0116641 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00262825 EFTA01457202