EFTA01177346.pdf

From: US GIO <[email protected]> To: Undisclosed recipients:; Subject: JPM View 06.01.2012 Date: Fri, 01 Jun 2012 20:31:11 +0000 Attachments: JPM_View_06.01.2012-pdfsip Inline-Images: image003.png J.P.Morgan GlobalAaa.t Allocation J tenon Gioia Bank NA JP Mayan Seosales Lid Art1.2012 The J.P. Morgan View Economy now adding insult to euro injury Jan LOWE,' • Awn Allocation — We are net shod risk through UWs of the euro and (1212) 03441374 Cyclwals Retain OW of Us and EM Asia stocks. Fund nsk assets at emus. PribarsillFen•Ban Cora Prefer credit over equities and axamodities Retain longs in gold Jelin Brand • Economaci —Growth momentum has tined negative. Both EMAssa said US µ42g) 7325-5222 fracases have been cut after disappointang PMIs and jobs data. icon ncernandesenoirian con • Fixed Income — Path ofleast resistance is stall to wider intra•EMLI spends Nikolaus PantaktOglOu bia•20) 77774305 • Equities — Stay keg US vs two equine', despite weak US gobs. as we have Molnar pangetrogloottenoillae can not yet seen the MI impact of tbe escalating ono cows on economic data Seamus Man GOraln • Credit — We move to OW EMS Sovereigns vs. EM Corporates and Neutral (44 20) 7777 2935 European Senior Financials. urn nucgoraniparentesun can • Foreign exchange — Stay dean EUPAISD, GBP/USD andEURICHE Mellinier Liebmann • Commodities — We remain neutral and prefer spread trades. Our highest 04201 7777•1830 minnow m lotunannawenOesslin nor conviction of thew are ..1.011 corn vs natural gas and long corn vs live cattle Lao Evans • As if Etro MCM011 and indecision were not enough to push down ink assets. (4420) 77422537 Monad a ovanigarperegrom sem now COMM renewed doubt about world growth Our Global Manufactunng Phil today fell back to a ;tut above Decent/wt. which was the lowest point since the meession. Om economists have cut theft 2012 and 2013 global `aft returns through nay 11 growth projections to 2.1e. and 2.4°. Bus week. doe to downgrades in the IL sew a• Si Iry met US. Brant andEM Aua followmg cuts in the Euro arta last week (chant p 2 mad tabkp 6). Both are down 0.2% from 2 weeks apo and are below potential lialenell BOO* • Much as we would like to see the double-digit fall no stocks from the March SWAG Y7D peak as the bottom in the conection. the near-term Mayers OW appear USI*Gione to be pointing downwards for risk emit. Value and risk menua have pone BDaa from cheap lo very cheap. but have not been not good wiling wends Both price and ec000rnoc momentum are now negative We do not see evidence of NEGEV capitulation. with MOSS tactical investors having moved to OCUtlal on equities fail Co Omar and credo. but not yet to short And the policy cavalry does not seem m a USO AC ids•C hung to nde to the resole mom opinion. assuming they have not run our of US Sam1mm annranation OA Swat gator • Is the geometria( slowdown wmpotaty, or the beginning of a downwind slide? foxes row wcate The lack of a single smoking pal for recent weakness argues for It-infancy. in US cmh particular as it has come with a draniatic fall in oil price, that will support Tone co:wampum) We are thus taking a middle road that secs higher ?mull rale, EllFX Ul CCSIIMC citcUlers born the 10u In ()...! but that unlv renew to the 2 5% pace of Qi by Qi of next Veal Goa spells Anglin war albelow potentul growth God that should depress inflation and Mali:Cr renew el moncian. easing We pencil WO' Bore m a GETSvist extension m the UR and the t25 OSO • Our unpression from position data and investor discussion; is that tactical 4i 4 e S • See (naves M.S. nm.. tine investors have been switching from long to neutral on equine; and conunodi- (am Asses as= bossed •ass am Owes bet, while retaumte some credit lone. Corporate bonds hove outperformed ma WM sr MOO ene we Mirka to h• kw.. (chart p 1) as the unpuct of wader spreads has been offset bor lower made:Buis www.morganmarkeits.com The certifyang analyst is indicated by an ac. See page 7 for analyst CeItsfiCISIO0 and imponant legal and regulatory disclosures This email n<oandennal and whoa le sarenata disclainlen and condition including oa offers lor the purchase at sole or sommiex a:gamy and compkwacss or infonmaina. imases.eentlaknualin. lepl pmik-ge. and legal allay &scissions. oublate at top.eivungeocripowmpagesdiscicntrevemail. EFTA01177346