EFTA00739352.pdf

From: Paul S Barrett <I IIIIMa> To: "Epstein, Jeffrey ([email protected])" <[email protected]> Subject: Corn / Divi Date: Thu, 02 Dec 2010 21:38:25 +0000 Attachments: JPM_Global_Commodities_Strategy_2010-12-01_513530.pdf Inline-Images: image003.png Hi Jeffrey Our research team has corn as one of their top picks for 2011 given the tight supply/inventory situation. Any demand increase will likely drive corn into a deficit. I think we should consider removing the collar and sit naked on the 2.5MM position. Would want to do it on a >2% down day. Would leg out of the collar. 2012 dividends are back at 109.00 (from 102.50 when we spoke on Tuesday). I still think we should add on the next pullback. Another 5MM EUR below 103.00. This position will continue to be volatile but we feel the final outcome will be above 130 EUR. Paul EFTA00739352 Exhibit 1: Hurdle rates required for global demand to catch up with global production in 2011 Demane roam recurea of common.% s ream to $1.1meow* for papa proaan 140% 117% 12D% 100% 90% 1hi 7.1% 7.4% ILO% SI% 34% NM 11% 1 1-- 0.1% 00% 0.1% .20% .2.1% .11% 40% el ' I l l A' I Source: JP. Wigan Ccermaaties Research qcca? 'pas ecewate-seopes aware crsng 2010 YID peas aria ;column. EFTA00739353