EFTA02366121.pdf

From: labor Y. Sent: Thursday, November 5, 2015 6:02 PM To: Jeffrey Epstein Subject: Re: Fwd: Saudi rates and CDS Thanks my friend On 5 Nov 2015 11:32 am, "jeffrey E." &=t;[email protected] <mailto:[email protected]» w=ote: core club, 66 east 55 , andrea will bring you to=jennie. 2 pm as you requested. On Thu, Nov 5, 2015 at 11:26 AM, =abor Y. ailto:[email protected]» wrote: Interesting information Thanks On 5 Nov 2015 10:51am, "jeffrey E." &=t;jeevacation@g=ail.com <mailto:[email protected]» wrote: S&P cut Saudi Arab=a from A+ to AA- earlier this week as they expect the fiscal deficit will =ncrease to 16% of GDP in 2015, from 1.5% in 2014, primarily reflecting the=sharp drop in oil prices As a follow-up to the below, it is also interesting to look at playi=g the idea through FX. </=pan> USD/SAR is currently p=gged. While our base case is that the government will defend the peg, if h=adlines get worse, revenues collapse from depressed oil prices and the gov=rnment has to address fiscal spending, we believe forward points and volatility will continue to increase. Althou=h, it may be a low probability event that the government breaks the peg, i= we look at Kazakhstan's actions in August (see chart below), we s=e buying USD call/ SAR put options as an interesting risk reward. </=pan> USD/KZT lyr</=> Source: Bloomberg 11/0=/2015 Chart 2 below shows Saudi COS EFTA_R1_01362239 EFTA02366121  Syr Saudi CDS =C2. please note The informat=on contained in this communication is confidential, may be attorney-cli=nt privileged, may constitute inside information, and is intended only =or the use of the addressee. It is the property of JEE Unauthoriz=d use, disclosure or copying of this communication or any part thereof =s strictly prohibited and may be unlawful. If you have received this return e-mail o= by e-mail to [email protected] <mailto:[email protected]> , and destroy this communication and all copies =hereof, including all attachments. copyright -all rights reserved c/=iv> 2 EFTA_R1_01362240 EFTA02366122