EFTA01797113.pdf

From: Sent: nay, eptem er 14, 2012 2:01 PM To: Jeffrey Epstein Subject: Fwd: Chinese potential power struggle could be the most important world event of the year Off-Script Scramble for Power in a Chinese Leader'= Absence By IAN JOHNSON and1O=ATHAN ANSFIELD Published: September 13, 2012 BEIJING — With still no sign of <= href="http://topics.nytimes.comitopinews/international/countriesandterri=ories/china/index.html?inlinernyt-geo" title="More news and information=about China." style="color: blue; text-decoration: underline; ">China's designated new le=der, Xi Jinping <http://topics.nytimes.com/top/referenceitimestopics/pe=ple/x/xijinping/index.html?inline=nyt-per> , who has n=t been seen in public since Sept. 1 <http://www=nytimes.com/2012/09/11/World/asiaxi-jinping-chinas-presumptive- new-leader-=ysteriously-absent.html> , many insiders and well-conn=cted analysts say the Chinese political ship is adrift, with factions jocke=ing to shape an impending Communist Party conclave. Enlarge=This Image <applewebdata://7A4CAS6F-=400-49FD-86C2-200ASSBAE4C6> <= href="applewebdata://7A4CAS6F-440D-49F0-86C2-200ASSBAE4C6" style="colo=: blue; text- decoration: underline; "> Pool photo by How Hwee Y=ung Xi Jinping on Aug. 29. Some analys=s believe he has had a heart attack or stroke. <= class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: Din; margin-right: 0in; margin-le=t: 0in; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; font-size: llpt; font-family: Calibri, san=-serif; line-height: 18pt; "> Connect With Us on Twitter EFTA_R1_00133496 EFTA01797113  Follow @nyt=mesworld <http://twitter.c=m/#!/nytimesworld> for international breaking news and headlines.=/span> Twitter List: Reporters and Editors <https://twi=ter.comM/nytimesworld/nytjournalists/members> <=span> The government has maintained its o=ficial silence about Mr. Xi's absence. After an initial burst of ch=tter, blog posts alluding to Mr. Xi have been effectively smothered on Chin='s social media platforms, and China's beleaguered Foreign M=nistry spokesman says on a daily basis that he has no information, despite a=barrage of questions from the foreign news media. By Thursday, a number of ranking party members w=th years of experience following Chinese politics were generally in a=reement that Mr. Xi, 59, had suffered either a mild heart attack or a strok=, forcing him to cancel his appointments. "The most reliable information we can find is th=t it's his heart," said a senior Chinese newspaper editor w=o spoke only on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of th= issue among the party hierarchy. Li Weidong, a former editor of a governme=t-sponsored reformist journal, agreed. On Thursday, Mr. Xi's name appeared in the Chinese p=ess for the first time in days,as he offered c=ndolences <http://www.gx.chinanews.com/2012/=910_0912/62812.html> over the recent death of a veteran party member. 64 that terse report only mentioned him among several leaders and did not im=ly anything more than a formal expression of sorrow. <= class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: Oin; margin-right: Oin; margin-le=t: Oin; margin-bottom: 12pt; font-size: llpt; font-family: Calibri, sans-se=if; line-height: 17.6pt; ">"l think it's hard to say thi= proves anything," said lin Zhong, the editor of Open, a magazine i= Hong Kong. "He didn't appear, but just sent condolen=es." =fanned years in advance, the 18th Party Congress is sla=ed to be the most sweeping government reorganization <http://www=nytimes.com/2012/08/07/world/asia/reports-signal-gathering-of-chinese-leade=s-ahead- of-transition.html> in a d=cade, with scores of leaders scheduled to retire. It was still expected to t=ke place next month or soon after in Beijing, where Mr. Xi was to take over=as leader from Hu Jintao. The Communist Party has numerous factions, but th= overall framework of the transfer was thought to have been mostly ironed o=t over the past year. =ut recent developments, including Mr. Xi's mysterious cancellation o= several public appearances, suggest that may not be the case.</=pan> The most obvious sign of discord is=that the dates for the congress have not been set. Most political experts h=re expected it to be held in mid-October, but without an official announcem=nt, some are predicting it will be delayed. "We hear that the congress will be held in late=October or early November," a security official from southern China=said. "Currently we're planning for that." One reason for the delay, the ex=erts say, is what now appears to have been acontentious meeting in e=rly August <http://www.nytimes.c=m/2012/07/22/world/asia/chinas-communist-elders-take-backroom-intrigue- beac=side.html> at the seaside resort of Beidaihe, China. Accord=ng to the official script, this was to have been the final big meeting befo=e the congress of leaders from the party's various factions: the mi=itary, big state enterprises, descendants of revolutionary families, leader= of critical Communist Party organizations and others. The details of the c=ngress were to be finalized at Beidaihe and the dates announced later in Au=ust. 2 EFTA_R1_00133497 EFTA01797114  Instead, according-to information that is slowly leaking out, the Beidaihe meeting and other s=ssions beforehand in Beijing<=pan style="color: rgb(0, 66, 118); ">were especially tense <http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/02/wo=ld/asia/party-intrigue-seen-in-chinese-officials-apparent-demotion.html> . 4,=804>The atmosphere was very bad, and the struggles were very intense,4=9D said a political analyst with connections to the party's nerve c=nter, the General Office. Mr. Hu, who has been criticized as having been an overly cautious and in=ffective leader during his decade in power, was also seen as defensive and g=oomy. A veteran party s.holar who attended the Beidaihe meetings said the leaders only met over a c=uple of days and finalized a list of more than 2,000 delegates to the congr=ss whose names were already public. A proposed list of new leaders was not c=rculated, however, and there was no deliberation of critical issues, like d=afts of the political blueprints to be unveiled at the congress, he s=id. "We though= that these issues would be settled there," he said, "but t=ey weren't." Given the absence of hard information from the government, it is possi=le that Mr. Xi's absence has been caused by something other than il=ness. The veteran party scholar, who dined late last week with a close fami=y member of Mr. Xi's, said the relative told him he did not know Mr= Xi to be sick. The scholar maintained that Mr. Xi's absence was mo=e likely because of the unsettled political situation. "There is still a struggle; it is n=t finished," he said. Most insiders say that they still expect Mr. Xi to re-emerge soon an= take over the top positions in the party and the government roughly on sch=dule. Two party academics who advise the government said Mr. Xi could make a=speech this weekend. Almost all the insiders said he should be healthy in t=me to participate fully in the Congress. But if Mr. Xi's sudden absence has been caused by=a serious illness, it raises the question of whether he will be strong enou=h to serve the two five-year terms expected of him when he emerged in 2007 a= a compromise candidate to lead the party. "This would be the worst-case scenario,"=said a senior official in a government research group with close ties to th= central government. "It would require a complete rebalancing of al= the competing interests." This is not to say that the transition has ground to a halt. Mos= of those who closely follow China's party politics are predicting t=at the powerful Standing Committee of the Politburo will be reduced to seve= from nine members in an effort to streamline decision-making, resolve fact=onal fighting over seats and rein in the power of China's well-fina=ced law enforcement apparatus. In addition, most seem to agree on all but o=e or two members of the probable leadership lineup. Not all, however, believe that this plan is se= in stone. The party scholar who attended the Beidaihe retreat said he had n=t seen any evidence confirming whether the Standing Committee would have se=en or nine members. So=e see the uncertainty as reflecting Mr. Hu's desire to retain influ=nce for as long as possible. It is unclear, for example, how long Mr. Hu wi=l stay on as leader of the Central Military Commission, a job that effectiv=ly makes him commander in chief. His predecessor, Jiang Zemin, retained tha= post for two years after stepping down as party secretary, but it appeared=for a while that Mr. Hu might bow to pressure to give that position to Mr. X= to help the new leader consolidate power. Jane Perlez=contributed reporting. 3 EFTA_R1_00133498 EFTA01797115 4 EFTA_R1_00133499 EFTA01797116