EFTA01451255.pdf

On Mon, San 13, 2014 at 7:47 AM, vinit Sahni <[email protected]> wrote: Classification: Confidential This attached image shows the current pricing on the curve, which is slightly weaker than it was in early December. I have also added the term structure of PDVSA and VENZ sovereign bonds, which gives us some relative value across the curve Bouts of volatility will likely remain an issue and therefore it will trade like a short tail risk trade. However, given that access to dollars remains key for venezuela, we should expect the government to do whatever they can to avoid a problem servicing these bonds (or even the perception of the same). They do have a heavy amortization schedule in 2014 and 2015. (Embedded image moved to file: pic11682.gif) Vinit Sahni managing Director I Global Head - Professional client Group & Key client Partners Capital Markets Group Deutsche Asset & wealth Management 105/108 Old Broad St (Pinners Hall), EC2N 1EN London, United Kingdom Tel. mobile Email (Embedded image moved to file: pic13253.gif) From Tazia Smith/db/dbcom@DBAMERICAS To: "Jeffrey epstein" <[email protected]>, Cc: "vinit Sahni" <[email protected]>, "Nav Gupta (DEUTSCHE ASSET MANAG)" <[email protected]>, [email protected], [email protected] Date 12/01/2014 22:52 Subj Re: PDVSA chart + USD7PV Trade [C] ect: classification: confidential Looping in vinit here as he was recently involved with a large offering in the pdvsa credit and may have some take-aways. My view is the bonds are money good in 2015, as of now, but you are not looking for yield carry (as discussed), and the risks of restructuring and near-term downside due to politics specific to venezuela and chatter around EM assets at large are likely greater than implied by the bonds' current -85 levels; would use Friday's rally to sell (particularly if you believe it was rates driven vs credit). For what it's worth, we've found Latam family offices that are very familiar the credit (and do like carry) are fully loaded and do not have incremental demand. CONFIDENTIAL — PURSUANT TO FED. R. GRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0 107627 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00253811 EFTA01451255