EFTA01461444.pdf

From: Tazia Smith Sent: 3/20/2014 6:19:32 PM To: [email protected] CC: Paul Morris Vinit Sahni Nay Gupta Vahe Stepania Subject: Oil discussion and ruble weakness....[C] Attachments: pic14318.gif; pic14030.gif; pic13987.gif classification: confidential Hi Rich - I'm sure you've seen plenty on the us sanctions vs. Russia (bloomberg update below). see this article in the FT: http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/3Scl6ae10-ab9a-11e3-90af-00144feab7de.html#axzz2wxg7cctv. The article is another advocacy for the us to sell strategic Petroleum Reserves (sPR). It goes over one thesis of economic impact, suggesting that a sale of 500-750k barrels a day could increase supply and reduce oil prices by 510-12 dollars. A $10/bbl drop in crude prices could have a 540bn impact to Russia's export income, according to this author (Paull verleger, Jr, former director of the office of Enerrgy Policy at the us Treasury during the Carter administration). Things that could offset the SPR supply's impact on prices include Saudi Arabia reducing supplies, as well as Congress approval delaying the process. This thesis ties closely to Jeffrey's outlook on near-term oil prices, and indirectly to a weak-ruble thesis as Russia's economy would be negatively impacted. We know Jeffrey thinks the SPR supply will not bring prices down in the very near-term (<1mo), and that stems (among several other things, I suspect) from offsets like those mentioned in the article being likely - not to be shrugged off. I found the article to be a good little summary and I liked the quantitative assessments; I thought you might find it of interest. Spot crude was actually down -S1/bbl today. The chart below is of the June14 contract (matures/expires in May as discussed) price action. As you know, Jeffrey's strike on his call is at 101. Have a good night! Tazia June14 crude contract - 1-month price history (Embedded image moved to file: pic14318.gif) used with permission of Bloomberg Finance LP Forwarded by Tazia smith/db/dbcom on 03/20/2014 05:59 PM From: "Tazia Smith (DEUTSCHE ASSET MANAG)" > To: undisclosed-recipients:;, Date: 03/20/2014 05:57 PM Subject: (Bm) Obama Expands Sanctions on Russian Officials to Press Putin CONFIDENTIAL — PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0 123501 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00269685 EFTA01461444