EFTA01389055.pdf

18 October 2016 REITs US REIT 3O16 Earnings Preview REIT outlook Macro outlook calling for sub 2.0% GOP growth and continued low yields The DB House View now calls for GDP growth of 1.3% in 2016, down modestly from 1.5% back in July, but the outlook for 2017 was pulled to +1.7% from +2.2%. DB has also adjusted its outlook for the 10-year which is expected to end 2016 at 1.75%, up 50bps from the July forecast, and is expected to increase 25bps finishing 2017 at 2.0%. (Figure 6: House view Estimates Estimates Indicator Unit 2016E 2017E 2018E Real GDP Growth °A) yoy 1.30 1.70 1.90 Unemployment rate °A 4.9 4.6 4.6 Compensation per empl. % yoy 2.50 4.50 4.50 U.S. 10Y yield % 1.75 2.00 N/A U.S. Key official interest rate % 0.625 1.125 1.625 Energy - WTI USD/bbl 43.27 53.00 65.00 Energy - Brent USD/bbl 45.00 55.00 70.00 Sam DattetI an 'Figure 7: Real GDP growth IFigure El: Employment and wages 303 120 x.50 2.40 2$0 2 20 203 10.0 100 80 1 000 1 8° r . ..r.i,..1-,. .1..1.,..1.i.... 1 1 " ...1 " .. so : 430 1 .100 4.0 .. .203 40 20 -280 I -40 0o i . . . • 2007 2008 2000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E 200$ 200 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 7017E 2015E .Rai GOP unentpicvnin net —orapensmon won% Sam: Dawn* Irk aocentreg AnneLP Sane CMANCIW ark OlOOMOIV AmmoLI Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. l'age / CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0093258 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00239442 EFTA01389055