EFTA01449325.pdf

30 July 2013 Exchange Rate Perspectives: FX and the Financial Transaction Tax G10 Capital Flows and Basic Balance Monitor United States 1USD bn) IFigure I: The basic balance is on a recovery path over Figure 2: as non-treasury portfolio outflows have turned the last one year positive 200 —Bak Bata 475 800 __....T Bain 800 flu non-mnuy poiebb lows 100 usonsa (no l-re 470 600 —Bask Bata too 4.66 0 400 4.60 400 -100 4.55 200 200 -200 4.60 0 0 300 446 440 -200 -200 400 Na fampUS rillotalecL US (A ild 436 400 -400 -680 n8080893 minw theuesietelance 430 400 12m acctrrela10:1/ -600 426 J -700 420 -903 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 97 98 99 03 01 02 03 04 06 06 07 03 00 10 11 12 13 Source 06 f% ihocwc en1 US Peony Source De? icX R*54WMItAl US TINILY Figure 3: The private basis balance has been diverging Figure 4: as official inflows become significant from the overall balance 200 200 66 —met Omen Plowmanet 150 Corposer Bonds 103 100 USD 9n. 55 Not Oftiple PIMOrldilY0)01 103 0 0 agortcy Bondy (Fivl 45 400 -leo so .200 .200 36 0 -300 -300 26 400 400 -50 15 -SOO -500 -100 400 -600 -150 93 95 97 99 01 03 06 07 09 11 13 78 0362 84 86 88 90 92 949698 00 02 04 06 03 10 12 Slott 09 am..O...su W rreIary Son:a I a Rel•Voln ant US Dikatry [Figure 5: Official inflows inversely correlated with private Figure 6: Relative to the private basic balance, the dollar inflows since the late 1990s is expensive 620 620 200 4.80 U51:1811 Ln 520 520 100 0 460 420 Co -ice 320 320 4 CC .200 220 220 .300 420 120 120 400 POMP BM Banco 20 20 400 ---USTAS la -600 -80 -80 HEW UST% wth Poe Bnk Baena) Clifl 380 moommmwsomwoommmootou 93 94 95 9697 9399 000102 03 04 05 06 070809 10 11 12 13 Sane Dd FY Roteerch a I MOWa' Mm.c, Sorsa DS ell Refeirchoof tiSlreesuy Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. Page 25 CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0104681 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00250865 EFTA01449325