podesta-emails
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---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Varun Anand <[email protected]>
Date: Mon, Nov 9, 2015 at 6:31 PM
Subject: USA Today: One year out: 5 big questions that could shape the 2016
election
To: Sara Latham <[email protected]>
Cc: Kristina Schake <[email protected]>
usatoday.com <http://www.usatoday.com/>
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2015/11/05/5-big-questions-2016-election-trump-clinton-obama/75056938/
One year out: 5 big questions that could shape the 2016 electionSusan Page
As we enter the final year of the 2016 presidential race, what are the key
questions that will shape the elections and what should we be looking for
<http://www.linkedin.com/shareArticle?url=http%3A//usat.ly/1NuQFu4&mini=true>
It's almost precisely one year until Election Day 2016. Between now and
then, there will be no shortage of furors and fireworks, attack ads and
polls. What's noise and what's noteworthy? Here's a look at five big
questions with the power to shape, or reshape, who wins the White House on
Nov. 8, 2016.
[image: Hillary Clinton at a campaign event at Clark Atlanta]
Hillary Clinton at a campaign event at Clark Atlanta University on
Oct. 30. (Photo:
David Goldman, AP)
Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton has accused the House Republicans
who are investigating her use of a private email server while secretary of
State of waging partisan warfare. Last month, she emerged relatively
unscathed from a congressional grilling
<http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2015/10/22/hillary-clinton-benghazi-2016-gowdy/74388656/>
about that
and the 2012 attack in Benghazi, Libya, that killed four Americans. But she
continues to face an investigation by the FBI's Counterintelligence
Division into classified information found in those emails. At issue is
whether she or her aides failed to appropriately safeguard intelligence
information.
A negative report or even a decision to prosecute — by the Justice
Department of a Democratic administration she had served — would be hard to
dismiss as just politics.
Peter Zeidenberg, a former federal prosecutor who has handled some
celebrated cases against public officials, says given the information known
publicly, he doubts it will go that far. "Using her own server — just for
the obvious reasons everyone has identified, including her — is foolish,
and maybe a breach of various protocols and policies," he said in an
interview. "But to the extent people are excited about the possibility of
her being charged criminally because of mishandling classified materials,
that seems absolutely fanciful."
He says investigators may feel some pressure to resolve the inquiry as soon
as possible. FBI Director James Comey told the House Oversight Committee
last month that he was following the investigation "very closely" and
promised the bureau would do its work "promptly, professionally and
independently."
That said, Zeidenberg acknowledged that investigations sometimes take an
unexpected course. "This whole business about having an email server in the
first place came as a result of an investigation that grew out of the
Benghazi thing," he noted.
[image: Donald Trump in Sparks, Nev., on Oct. 29, 2015.]
Donald Trump in Sparks, Nev., on Oct. 29, 2015. (Photo: Lance Iversen, AP)
Some in the Republican establishment seem to be going through the classic
Five Stages of Grief when it comes to Donald Trump's candidacy. That
started with denial that it was even possible the real-estate mogul and
reality-TV star could end up as the GOP presidential nominee.
After leading in most polls through the summer and into the fall, though,
Trump has gained credibility as a candidate. What's more, his biggest
challenger hasn't been one of the governors or senators in the field. It's
retired pediatric neurosurgeon Ben Carson, another outsider who has never
run for office before. That's alarmed those Republicans — perhaps moving to
intermediate stages of anger or depression — who note that it's been more
than a half-century since Americans were willing to elect a newcomer to the
nation's top political job.
"While I’m in the camp that eventually a mainstream
'establishment' Republican will carry the party’s torch, it’s clearly
possible Donald could be the party’s nominee," says GOP strategist Sara
Taylor Fagen, a former White House political director for George W. Bush.
She tempers predictions that a Trump ticket would doom the party in
November. "While general-election prospects for the GOP look bad today with
Mr. Trump at the helm, the electorate is very fickle right now. I’d be
careful to read too much into polls now that say he can’t win a general
election. And we shouldn’t underestimate his ability to adapt his message
to new circumstances."
Just FYI: The final Kubler-Ross stage is acceptance.
[image: U.S. $100 bills at the Bureau of Engraving and Printing.]
U.S. $100 bills at the Bureau of Engraving and Printing. (Photo: Mark
Wilson, Getty Images)
While it hasn't felt much like a recovery for middle-class Americans, the
economy has been growing for the past six years. Unemployment was down to
5.1% in August and September, the lowest in seven years. Now some
economists see worrying signs that a soft patch in the economy just might
turn into another recession. "The dangers facing the global economy are
more severe than at any time since the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy in 2008,"
former Treasury secretary Larry Summers warned in a*Washington Post *op-ed
last month.
Jared Bernstein, a former chief economist for Vice President Biden who is
now at the Center for Budget and Policy Priorities, is skeptical. "Recent
recessions have been generated by what I've come to call the economic
shampoo cycle: bubble, bust, repeat, but I don't see any bubbles inflating
right now, and the public and household sectors are not
over-leveraged." That said, he adds, "One thing that could prove me wrong
would be if an economic hiccup or self-inflicted wound were exacerbated by
gridlocked politics and a Fed that's largely out of ammo." Interest rates
already are near zero, and the Republican-controlled Congress would be
unlikely to approve stimulus spending.
If there is a downturn, history says President Obama probably would bear
most of the blame — and a president's approval rating is one of the most
significant single indicators of how his party will fare in elections.
"Under the safe assumption that most people aren't running Keynesian models
of the macro-economy, presidents get the credit for good times and blame
for bad ones," Bernstein says, even though "they typically don't deserve
either."
[image: Syrian and other migrants after crossing the border]
Syrian and other migrants after crossing the border between Austria and
Germany in October. (Photo: Kerstin Joensson, AP)
The civil war in Syria has become not only a humanitarian catastrophe but
also an international flashpoint, and a continuing test of President
Obama's leadership.
Aaron David Miller, a former adviser on the Mideast to both Democratic and
Republican secretaries of State, calls it "a kinetic situation" and "the
most vulnerable place for this president and the Democratic nominee."
That's because the confrontations involve not only Syrian President Bashar
Assad — Obama has been demanding his resignation for the past four years,
to little effect — but also leaders of Russia, Iran and the
rising self-proclaimed Islamic State.
Obama's decision last month to send 50 U.S. special ops forces to Syria has
increased the risks to his administration, and to his former secretary of
State. Clinton has made a point in interviews and in her 2014 memoir, *Hard
Choices*, that she advocated a more muscular response to bolster moderate
Syrian rebels early in the civil war, a step Obama was loath to take. Now
she supports enforcing a no-fly zone, a sort of buffer zone to protect
civilians, something Obama also has rejected so far.
But there are limits to how far Clinton, who will need the support of
Obama's most loyal supporters to win in 2016, can distance herself from her
former boss, especially on foreign policy. "She's tried," says Miller, who
is now a senior scholar at the Woodrow Wilson Center. But "I think she'd
have a very hard time walking away from him."
[image: Bill Clinton, Ross Perot and George Bush following]
Bill Clinton, Ross Perot and George Bush following their third and final
presidential debate at Michigan State University in 1992. (Photo: Doug
Mills, AP)
Americans say they're ready for an alternative to the two major political
parties. In a USA TODAY/Suffolk University this fall
<http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2015/09/30/suffolk-poll-republicans-trump-carson-fiorina/73035550/>,
just 30% of those surveyed said the Democrats and Republicans did a good
job of representing the country's political views. A 53% majority said a
third party or multiple parties were necessary.
The outsider candidates in both parties have generated the most energy —
Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, the Democratic socialist challenging Clinton,
and Donald Trump and Ben Carson in the GOP. If they don't win the
nomination, what would their supporters do? Would Trump or someone else
outside the party establishment mount an independent candidacy?
The possibilities of an independent bid seem higher on the right than the
left because the insider-outsider divisions are deeper in the GOP than
among the Democrats.
Indeed, even if an outsider won the Republican nomination, Sara Fagen
speculations one of the insiders might choose to run.
"I believe there is a strong possibility that a third-party candidate
would emerge if Mr. Trump were to win the nomination," Fagen says. "If you
think about it, any of these Republican governors now running would be in
the middle between Trump and Clinton. Given the increasing number of people
who identify as Independent, this would be the right place to be
politically. If Trump were leading the Party, why wouldn’t they look at
it?"
Remember this: Independent candidates don't have to win the race to affect
the outcome. Just ask Democrat Al Gore about the impact Ralph Nader had in
2000, or Republican George H.W. Bush about Ross Perot's bid in 1992.
<http://www.usatoday.com/section/global/elections-2016/>
<http://www.usatoday.com/pages/interactives/candidate-match-game/>
<http://onpolitics.usatoday.com/2015/07/03/are-you-over-2016-already-relive-some-earlier-elections-instead/>
<http://www.usatoday.com/pages/interactives/fb-barometer/>
<http://www.linkedin.com/shareArticle?url=http%3A//usat.ly/1NuQFu4&mini=true>
ℹ️ Document Details
SHA-256
84a1fe634d0b51ac490d10f0486ad43586a6cf7173fb0385dfa3194f148ca883
Dataset
podesta-emails
Document Type
email
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