News Update - November 25

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http://www.centerpeace.org ** Israel and the Middle East News Update ------------------------------------------------------------ ** Wednesday, November 25 ------------------------------------------------------------ Click here for a printer-friendly version. (http://centerpeace.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/November-25.pdf) Headlines: * Kerry in Ramallah: US Committed to Palestinian Statehood * Report: Israel Weighs Transfers of 10k Dunams to PA * Israel Strikes Hezbollah Positions in Syria, Killing 13 * Israel, Egypt Oppose Reduction in Sinai Peacekeeping Force * After Deadly Attacks, Gush Etzion Taking Zero Risks on Security * Israel to Displace Thousands of Bedouins * Poll: 58% of West Bank Reject Armed Intifada * Israeli Intelligence Helped Thwart Terror Attack in Germany Commentary: * Times of Israel: “Time to Talk to Palestinians” - By Avi Issacharoff, Middle East Analyst, Times of Israel * Yedioth Ahronoth: “The Unwinnable War: Can We Demand the IDF Win?” - By Eitan Haber, Israeli Journalist and Publicist on Security and Military Issues ** Times of Israel ------------------------------------------------------------ ** Kerry in Ramallah: US Committed to Palestinian Statehood (http://www.timesofisrael.com/kerry-in-ramallah-us-committed-to-palestinian-statehood/) ------------------------------------------------------------ US Secretary of State Kerry expressed sympathy for the Palestinians’ “very dire” situation, but also spoke of his concern “about the violence,” while stressing the ongoing US commitment to a Palestinian state. “I am here at the request of President Obama to see what we can do to try to help contribute to calm and to restore people’s confidence in the ability of a two-state solution to still be viable, to be achieved at some point…We are committed to that two states with two peoples living side by side…The United States will continue to work as hard as possible to achieve that end.” See also, “Netanyahu to Kerry: Green Light to Palestinian Building Dependent on End to Terror” (Jerusalem Post) (http://www.jpost.com/Arab-Israeli-Conflict/Netanyahu-to-Kerry-Green-light-for-Palestinian-building-projects-dependent-on-end-to-terror-435263) See also, “Kerry Tells Bibi: US Will Not Recognize Settlement Blocs in Return for West Bank Gestures” (Ha’aretz) (http://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/.premium-1.688185) ** Times of Israel ------------------------------------------------------------ ** Report: Israel Weighs Transfer of 10k Dunams to PA (http://www.timesofisrael.com/report-israel-weighs-transfer-of-10k-dunams-to-pa/) ------------------------------------------------------------ The Civil Administration, which acts as the IDF’s liaison to the Palestinian population in the West Bank, is considering the possibility of transferring some 10,000 dunams (about 3.8 square miles) of land currently under Israeli control to the Palestinian Authority. The move, if implemented, would be carried out as a goodwill gesture to the Palestinians in exchange for efforts on the Authority’s part to help quell a surge in Palestinian terror attacks over the past two months. ** Times of Israel ------------------------------------------------------------ ** Israel Strikes Hezbollah Positions in Syria, Killing 13 (http://www.timesofisrael.com/report-israel-strikes-hezbollah-positions-in-syria-killing-13/) ------------------------------------------------------------ Unconfirmed Syrian media reports said Tuesday that Israel carried out some four airstrikes on Syrian regime and Hezbollah positions in the area of Syria’s Qalamoun mountains on Monday night. A report by Al-Souria Net, a pro-opposition outlet, said eight Hezbollah fighters and five Syrian soldiers were killed in the raids, which hit the border region between Lebanon and Syria. “After several hours of reconnaissance flights above the area, Israeli planes suddenly launched two raids on a joint Assad forces and Hezbollah position…This was immediately followed by a third raid. The Israeli planes resumed their attack with a fourth air raid after several minutes, targeting a Hezbollah position in western Qalamoun.” The report said “dozens” were injured in the airstrikes, four of them critically. See also, “Syrian Opposition: IAF Struck Hezbollah, Regime Targets Near Syria-Lebanon Border” (Jerusalem Post) (http://www.jpost.com/Arab-Israeli-Conflict/Syrian-opposition-claims-IAF-struck-targets-in-country-on-Monday-435233) ** BICOM ------------------------------------------------------------ ** Israel, Egypt Oppose Reduction in Sinai Peacekeeping Force (http://www.bicom.org.uk/news-article/27617/) ------------------------------------------------------------ The US-led peacekeeper force in the insurgency-wracked Sinai will remain unchanged after Egypt and Israel rebuffed proposals to trim it by about a fifth, an Egyptian official said on Tuesday. Installed to monitor the demilitarization of the Sinai under the 1979 Egyptian-Israeli peace accord, the Multinational Force and Observers (MFO) and some of its 12 contributor countries have been considering changes to its deployment and mandate. They worry about the safety of the almost 1,900 peacekeepers after six were wounded in September by a roadside bomb. See also, “Egypt, Israel Rebuff Bid to Trim Sinai Peacekeeping Force” (Ynet News) (http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4730434,00.html) ** Arutz Sheva ------------------------------------------------------------ ** After Deadly Attacks Gush Etzion Taking Zero Risks on Security (http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/203921#.VlW6EN-rTBJ) ------------------------------------------------------------ Gush Etzion has been hit by some of the deadliest attacks during the last two months of daily stabbings, car-rammings and shootings by Palestinian terrorists. Most recently, 21-year-old Hadar Buchris (http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/203760) of Tzfat was stabbed to death in a brutal attack. In response, Gush Etzion's Regional Council is stepping up their efforts to restore calm and a sense of security the area. "We are installing security cameras in all of the kindergartens in the region. We are looking after the security of the youth groups during their weekly activities, and we are organizing increased security for a fair on Friday in which local residents will be able to come out and shop with a sense of safety and calm. All of this is in an effort to restore a sense of calm to the residents who live in the area." See also, “Security Fence Being Built Around Murder Site” (Arutz Sheva) (http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/203925#.VlW9BN-rTBI) See also, "I Saw Elderly People in the Back of the Bus and Began Shooting" (Arutz Sheva) (http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/203869#.VlW8NN-rTBI) ** Al Jazeera ------------------------------------------------------------ ** Israel to Displace Thousands of Bedouins (http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2015/11/israel-displace-palestinian-bedouins-151124153132838.html) ------------------------------------------------------------ An Israeli plan to build several new Jewish-only communities in the Negev region of the country's south will displace thousands of citizens of Israel from two Bedouin villages. Approved by the Israeli government on Sunday, the plan allows for the construction of five new Jewish planned communities, two of which will be on top of a pair of Bedouin villages. Bir Hadaj village is home to at least 6,000 people, while an estimated 1,500 live in Katama village, which is classified by the government as an "unrecognized" village. ** Daily Alert ------------------------------------------------------------ ** Poll: 58% of West Bank Reject Armed Intifada (http://dailyalert.org/) ------------------------------------------------------------ 73% of Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza oppose and 21% favor the creation of a Palestinian state on the 1967 lines with some land exchange, according to a poll conducted on Nov. 20-22 by the Center for Opinion Polls and Survey Studies at An-Najah University in Nablus. 58% in the West Bank said they reject the rise of an armed intifada in the Palestinian territories, while 39% approve. 74% reject and 20% support the creation of a bi-national state for both Arabs and Jews. 70% support and 24% reject ceasing security coordination between the PA and Israel. When asked "If elections are conducted in the Palestinian territories, do you think they will be fair?" - 51% said no, 38% said yes. ** Ynet News ------------------------------------------------------------ ** Israeli Intelligence Helped Thwart Terror Attack in Germany (http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4730869,00.html) ------------------------------------------------------------ Israel reportedly helped thwart devastating terror attacks in Paris (http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4727299,00.html%22'=%22%22%20onmouseover=%22this.href=unescape(this.href)%22%20target=%22_blank%22%20style=%22color:%20rgb(0,%200,%20255);%20font-family:%20Arial,%20') , according to a story published in German magazine Stern. Stern cites German government sources that said Israel provided crucial intelligence about an imminent terror attack targeting the friendly match between Germany and Holland's soccer teams. This led to the cancelation of the game and the evacuation of the stadium, only 90 minutes before the game was to start. According to Stern magazine, Israeli intelligence passed information to German authorities about a planned terror bombing at the stadium in Hanover as early as Monday. The next day, November 17, more concrete information, including specific details of the planned attack, was gathered from the same source, indicating on an immediate threat. See also, “Report: Israel Provided Key Intelligence to Germany on Imminent Terror Attack” (Jerusalem Post) (http://www.jpost.com/Israel-News/Israeli-intelligence-provided-warning-that-lead-to-Hanover-soccer-game-cancellation-435337) ** Times of Israel – November 24, 2015 ------------------------------------------------------------ ** Time to Talk to the Palestinians (http://www.timesofisrael.com/time-to-talk-to-the-palestinians/) ------------------------------------------------------------ Continuing to hold onto the West Bank while doing zero to settle the conflict will keep costing Israeli lives. By Avi Issacharoff The series of attacks over the past two days in which two Israelis were killed demonstrates what Israel evidently refuses to acknowledge: we are in the midst of a third Intifada with no end in sight. This is an uprising minus the masses and without a guiding hand, but with quite a few not-so-lone terrorists and endless motivation on the part of young Palestinian men and women to go out and kill and, if necessary, be killed. The attackers come from all ranks of the Palestinian population, from towns and villages, refugee camps and affluent neighborhoods, and they range in age from 11 to 73. And worst of all, it seems nothing can stop the trend. The status quo is the big winner at this stage. And it’s not the status quo that we all miss from three months ago, that of “relative calm.” We’re in a new reality in which every day brings more attacks, more wounded and more killed. By my calculation, no change can be expected in the current situation for another year and a half. The American government, whose representative, Secretary of State John Kerry, arrives in the region today, has no plans to renew negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians. So until the US elections a year from now, no policy change can be expected. It will then take another two months for the new president to take office, and then another few months to hash out a new Middle East policy, at the end of which there may or may not be a change in the political sphere. For their part, the Palestinian Authority appears to have switched to silent mode, avoiding blatant incitement and refraining from making public pronouncements. They’re basically missing in action. Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas and his people appear to be in no hurry to get anywhere in particular, and are perfectly content to watch Israel bleed as long as no one can blame them for it. As for the Israeli government, it’s sticking to the line that there’s nothing to be done and nobody to negotiate with and now’s not the time for talks or making gestures to the Palestinian Authority because that would amount to rewarding terror. The absurdity is that when things were relatively calm, those same politicians opposed initiatives, negotiations, gestures etc., because, they said, the conflict can’t be resolved, only managed, and the status quo is not bad for Israel. The security establishment’s repeated warnings that without negotiations or significant gestures there would be an escalation fell on deaf ears. For these politicians, the calm was the be all and end all. Then the violence flared up. At which point, those who argued against making gestures or negotiations took every opportunity to say we told you so. No, they did not tell us so. We in the media and those in defense told them this would happen and that they needed to act, and they opted to ignore us in order to preserve the sanctity of Greater Israel. Perhaps they were right. Maybe peace negotiations and even territorial concession would lead to catastrophe. As things stand, it looks like we’ll never know. What we do know is that if you want to just “manage the conflict,” there will be a bloody price to pay, and it’s time to make that clear to the largely right-wing Israeli public: the “managing the conflict” bubble has burst in our faces and the price is getting higher and higher with each passing day. You wanted to keep controlling the territories? You wanted to continue the occupation? That’s the price. Meanwhile, Israeli ministers look like deer in the headlights just before the vehicle hits. They are helpless, with no hope or solutions and, above all, frozen in place. When decision-makers of Naftali Bennett’s ilk are asked about it, they answer along the lines of “this government is doing more than past governments.” They’re referring to punitive house demolitions, security re-enforcements, military operations. They may be right. There’s just one little problem with that argument: Under previous governments such measures weren’t necessary because there were far fewer attacks. And even with the house demolitions and sending more troops to the Gush Etzion junction, new places will always pop up where there will be three or thirty soldiers and some young Palestinian stupid enough to try to attack. So what’s the solution? Ultimately, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu may have no choice but to resort to the doomsday option: Actually talking with the Palestinian Authority to negotiate peace. No other solution is likely to bring quiet. And even that one may no longer work. Avi Issacharoff, The Times of Israel's Middle East analyst, fills the same role for Walla, the leading portal in Israel. He is also a guest commentator on many different radio shows and current affairs programs on television. ** Yedioth Ahronoth – November 25, 2015 ------------------------------------------------------------ ** The Unwinnable War: Can We Demand that the IDF Win? ------------------------------------------------------------ By Eitan Haber Israeli leaders, in every period and in every government, are very fond of using big words: We will eradicate, liquidate, win and so on and so forth. But outside the public podium, in the Prime Minister’s Bureau in Jerusalem or in the Defense Ministry in Tel Aviv, sitting in front of the chief of staff, the GSS director or his representative and relevant IDF generals, they wring their hands, raise their voice at the participants of the nighttime discussions and ask: Well, what shall we do now? Attentive listeners will notice the confusion in the voices and in the question of the leaders. Careful observers will notice almost immediately the anger in their faces. The security forces, meaning the IDF and the GSS, are unable to “deliver the goods.” In other words, the political echelon is usually angry at the security forces for being unable to suppress the Palestinian terror attacks and to bring calm to the land. Afterwards, at the end of the long meeting, in conversations held in the corridor, the security officials will speak their opinion of the political echelon. The political officials, for their part, will also have a great deal to say about the army and the security services. People say: The great IDF—which reached Entebbe and blew up (according to foreign reports) the reactors in Iraq and Syria, which swiftly defeated the Egyptians, the Syrians and the Jordanians in the Six-Day War, planted a flag on the banks of the Suez Canal, took over the entire West Bank, took over with gritted teeth the Syrian Golan Heights in 1967 and fended off the Syrians from the Golan in the Yom Kippur War of 1973, and also wiped out the achievements of the Egyptian army at the time—is unable to stand against a few dozen teenagers with knives and screwdrivers? The answer is: no, the warlike speeches, inflammatory rhetoric and the “eradicate” and “liquidate” talk notwithstanding. Terrorism of this kind cannot be defeated, among other things because it exploits, as in the Yom Kippur War, the loopholes that the IDF unwillingly leaves behind. The Palestinians learn and try not to repeat their mistakes. In the case before us, they make extensive use of children and of very primitive weapons, and encourage a kind of popular uprising. How can an army, no matter how large and strong, prevent a 13 year-old from stabbing an innocent civilian on the street? The IDF has Iron Dome batteries, which cost the taxpayer hundreds of millions, laser cannons, state-of-the-art radar screens, advanced cyber-warfare capabilities—and what more can we ask for? What do the Palestinians have? Knives, primitive guns, rockets and missiles that cost almost nothing, just a few hundred dollars. We, thank God, have missiles that cost millions of dollars. So why is it that missiles that cost us hundreds of thousands of dollars each cannot defeat the primitive missiles that cost just a few hundred dollars, despite the fact that they are much “smarter”? How is it that tens of thousands of people closet themselves at home in fear because of kitchen knives? Why is it that every person with an Arab accent is classified here as a suspected terrorist? The answer, as of now, is that the Palestinian despair has recently met the Israeli despair. The knife cannot win, but it keeps the Palestinian problem in the picture, and causes the world to believe that it is the source of all its troubles. This is enough for the Palestinians. The Palestinians feel that they have nothing to lose, and go out with knives to instill fear and terror in us. We are alarmed, and show our alarm. The Palestinians are encouraged and believe that they will win. They still don’t know that the two sides will have no choice but to find a path to a diplomatic solution. It’s very simple: Unlike them, we Israelis have nowhere to go. Eitan Haber is an Israeli journalist and publicist known for his writing on military and security issues, and for his longtime association with the late Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin. ============================================================ S. Daniel Abraham Center for Middle East Peace 633 Pennsylvania Ave. NW, 5th Floor, Washington, DC 20004 For comments, please contact us at ** [email protected] (mailto:[email protected]) . ** www.centerpeace.org (http://www.centerpeace.org) 2015 S. Daniel Abraham Center for Middle East Peace, All rights reserved. YOU ARE RECEIVING THIS EMAIL BECAUSE YOU SIGNED UP FOR OUR NEWS UPDATES. ** unsubscribe from this list (http://centerpeace.us7.list-manage.com/unsubscribe?u=232a4a45176fccacab865e520&id=929d521884&e=a7f9100a75&c=13905db1a8) ** update subscription preferences (http://centerpeace.us7.list-manage.com/profile?u=232a4a45176fccacab865e520&id=929d521884&e=a7f9100a75)