Fwd: Adani update - what a week!

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might find this of interest. Sent from my iPad Begin forwarded message: From: "Knaebel, Sergio" <[email protected]<mailto:[email protected]>> Date: August 6, 2015 at 9:10:16 AM PDT To: "Sandler, Jim" <[email protected]<mailto:[email protected]>>, "Daetz, Steve" <[email protected]<mailto:[email protected]>>, "Sandler, Herbert" <[email protected]<mailto:[email protected]>>, "Sandler, Susan" <[email protected]<mailto:[email protected]>> Subject: Fwd: Adani update - what a week! See below for the latest update from John Hepburn (Sunrise Project) in Australia. I'm starting to think that our high tolerance for risk on this project is paying off! Just as a reminder, the Adani mine would be the world's largest coal mine, in a remote and untapped coal basin. Building it would open up the area to other mining companies and uncork the emissions equivalent of the world's eighth biggest CO2 emitting country (Germany). The "EDO's" John mentions are Environmental Defenders Offices -- nonprofit environmental public interest law firms. There is one in every state, and Sunrise Project has helped them in the transition from state funding (which precipitously dropped when they took on cases against coal) to private donor funding. Sergio Knaebel Begin forwarded message: From: John Hepburn <[email protected]<mailto:[email protected]>> Date: August 6, 2015 at 4:04:11 AM PDT To: Shulwell2 <[email protected]<mailto:[email protected]>>, SatKartar Khalsa <[email protected]<mailto:[email protected]>>, Julia Verville <[email protected]<mailto:[email protected]>>, "Knaebel, Sergio" <[email protected]<mailto:[email protected]>>, Joanna Messing <[email protected]<mailto:[email protected]>>, Steve Toben <[email protected]<mailto:[email protected]>>, Graeme Wood <[email protected]<mailto:[email protected]>>, Lydia Gibson <[email protected]<mailto:[email protected]>> Subject: Adani update - what a week! Hi all, Wow. What a huge week. The Adani Carmichael mine and the whole Galilee Basin fossil fuel industrial complex is in its death throes. First the big win in the Federal Court that overturned the approval of the Adani mine, followed closely by the announcement that Australia's biggest bank (Commonwealth Bank) is no longer working with Adani. The media coverage has been epic and it has been a big struggle to try to shape the story in the face of the coal industry and federal Government attacking the environmental movement. There is so much media coverage it is hard to know where to start - no doubt you have seen quite a lot of it from your google alerts. I have copied a couple of pieces below. The first is a picture from a news-stand that says it all, followed by an article that will run in the Australian Financial Review tomorrow by the most senior resources writer in the country who sums up the situation pretty well. The campaign is not over yet - but it is getting closer by the day and we have some more ammunition yet to fire. Next week Tim Buckley & the IEEFA team will be launching their Indian Energy Sector report (Tim has actually built a financial model of the Indian energy sector) that shows that India will cease coal exports within the next few years and building the case for Adani (and everyone else) to invest in renewables instead. The coalition of groups that have been campaigning to get the banks to rule out financing the project have already pivoted today to escalate the campaign towards the other 3 big Australian banks who are all holding their AGMs at the same time as the Paris COP. And on Monday we have a meeting to thrash out the federal election strategy to build on the momentum from the Galilee/Reef campaign. The court win and the imminent win against the Adani project is only hardening the resolve of the mining industry and the Federal Government to try to smash the environmental movement. They are claiming that the court win was 'a technicality' a 'bureacratic stuff up' and a 'loophole' when it was clearly a case of the Minister failing to examine the impact of the mine on endangered species. Of course it isn't the first time that the coal industry has treated endangered species (or indeed climate change) as a 'technicality'. The industry have also dusted off the old 2012 leaked coal strategy to try to claim that there is some kind of foreign funded and tightly orchestrated conspiracy to systematically destroy the Australian coal industry. (I seriously don't know where they get these whacky ideas from!) Shudder to think that environmentalists would use environmental laws to protect the environment! The attacks will no doubt continue over the coming weeks but the movement here is really firing well and is continuing to build more and more momentum. Anyhow, I'm going to have the evening off. And then tomorrow afternoon I am going to buy a few bottles of bubbly for a celebration with the EDO legal team, our colleagues at Getup, Greenpeace, 350.org<http://350.org>, ECF, Australian Youth Climate Coalition, Mackay Conservation Group, Market Forces and the brilliant and tireless Sunrise team. You should all drink a toast for a very successful week. Without your support none of this would have happened and the mine might have been half built by now. The fight isn't over yet but we are on the trajectory to win and it is important to celebrate the big milestones along the way. Thanks again for your support. John [Displaying] Time-out for Adani's Queensland coal pariah Matthew Stevens Australian Financial Review http://www.afr.com/business/mining/coal/timeout-for-adanis-queensland-coal-pariah-20150806-git3ws (Paywall) Aug 6 2015 The existential struggles of a hard-working skink and slightly poisonous but otherwise unremarkable snake have left Queensland's $16 billion Carmichael coal project on life support and its sole proponent, Adani Group, in emergency-room discussion with the state government. But it is increasingly difficult to believe that Adani will linger too much longer before pulling the plug on this pariah of a coal project that has, so far fruitlessly, absorbed just shy of $2 billion. Carmichael was planned to be Australia's biggest coal mine. The first phase of the central Queensland mine was supposed to cost $US6.5 billion ($8.9 million), making it one of the bigger countercyclical resources investments in Australian history. And preconstruction work was supposed to begin at the mine site some time in September so that first coal could start sailing off to Adani's power stations in India by late 2017. But a bureaucratic stuff-up that was cleverly identified, and then impressively prosecuted in the Federal Court, by the coalition of anti-coal lobbies that have lined up against a fleet of six Galilee Basin projects means that Adani's September deadline will be missed. In May and June, the head of Adani's Australian operations, Jeyakumar Janakaraj, told The Australian Financial Review that there was ever less tolerance at head office for further delay of progress at Carmichael and the window of investment opportunity would be put at risk of closure if schedules were again pushed out by Australia's approval lethargy. Time is the factor of critical importance to an investment decision most often overlooked by politicians and observers alike. It is an issue, though, well-appreciated by the activists armed to stop coal. Projects are designed and costed around schedules. Carmichael's milestones, ultimately, reflect Adani's increasingly immediate need for coal to feed its own power stations. By our reckoning Adani needs about 10 million tonnes a year of reliable high-quality coal supply by 2017. For four years Adani has worked to make Carmichael the solution. But all the evidence suggests the project is now the problem and that Adani is close to burying Carmichael and seeking more certain alternatives. Depending on you view point, that is either a massive win for the environment regionally and globally, or a highly indicative setback for the Australian economy and for the people whose current and future welfare depended on development of the Galilee Basin's coal. Carmichael the frontier project That is the great thing about living in a democracy: people can own and propagate vastly different views on matters trivial or important. And let's be very clear here: this one is important. Carmichael is the frontier project in the Galilee Basin. If Adani walks then this new energy horizon closes for the forseeable future and possibly permanently. To appreciate what is up for grabs here, you need to understand that Carmichael is about 800 kilometres from the coast. Adani, in the form of either the company or its billionaire senior owner Gautam Adani, wants to build the mine and the railway that will link it to an already expanded coal terminal at Abbot Point. There are five other proposals to build mines around the Galilee Basin. Only one other had a realistic plan to build a railway and that project (the Hancock-GVK joint venture) has collapsed into legal contest over the Indian group's failure to meet payment schedules. So, as coal globally reaches what the anti-coal lobby hopes is an investment tipping point of no return, Adani's is the first and maybe last hope of any sort of progress for the Galilee. Coal is a relatively ubiquitous and cheap source of energy. That is why it is a cornerstone of most serious long-term forecasts of global and regional energy needs. Coal is also the biggest single contributor to the global accumulation of carbon emissions that an informed consensus says is changing our climate. That is why the Financial Times has dubbed coal the world's most hated commodity. The First World's problem with coal has, in a moment of classic economic perversity, made it all the more attractive to the emerging world. Coal is suddenly in relatively shallow and apparently permanent oversupply, and that means the price is flat-lining at historically low levels. So, while the underlying economics of Carmichael are being tested by the current low coal price, Adani suddenly has a whole lot of choice about where it might source its coal. The market for mines and the commodity they produce is highly liquid. Adani needed to spend another $US4 billion to bring the first phase of the Carmichael story to a close. The fact is that Adani's capital might easily be redirected to more mature opportunities less likely to be critically delayed by activists legal and direct. There is a lot of talk, for one example, that Rio Tinto's Hunter Valley coal system is on the market, with both Glencore and Mick Davis' X2 said to be circling the dataroom. Since March there has been gathering evidence of Adani's growing ambivalence about Carmichael as work on planning, preconstruction preparations and project financing was either pulled or slowed. Most recently, Adani withdrew a funding mandate from the Commonwealth Bank, which had been the Australian bank charged with marketing Carmichael's three-layered funding package. Skewed confusion There has been some typically skewed confusion over this decision. Some have preferred to believe that the CBA dropped Adani's business, and to market this as a sea-change in Australian banking's embrace of coal as an asset class. But we have been reassured by both bank and former client that Adani ended the mandate, and that Australia's biggest bank remains open for coal business. Certainly this fits with advice consistently offered by the CBA's chief executive, Ian Narev. Like his peers among the pillars, Narev routinely receives anti-coal's most important advocates and, just as routinely, insists that just walking away from coal would be as bad for his shareholders as it would be for the Australian economy. Until the canning of the CBA, Adani presented each of these retreats as sensible brinkmanship. The foreign investor was simply announcing to governments state and federal that it would spend no more without final tick-off on the last of its Commonwealth environmental approvals. But closing the door on finance appears to signal more enduring intent. Just to be clear on the approvals issue, the one Adani regarded as its investment trigger was a Commonwealth sign-off on the week's worth of dredging needed to drive a new shipping lane between Adani's new coal export pier at Abbot Point and the existing shipping channel that take boats through the Great Barrier Reef. This approval has been a matter of local and global contention. It sat central to the environmental lobby's sustained effort to get the GBR placed on UNESCO's list of "at risk" environmental wonders. Had that happened, then Carmichael's goose would already have been cooked. But it didn't: in late May UNESCO decided not to risk-list the Reef. Adani and the state government (which is the applicant for the dredging approval because the port authority will do the digging and the spoil dumping) expected Commonwealth indulgence to arrive finally in August. And with that Adani would get work started at the mine site. But that potential has been blown out of the water by Canberra's stuff-up. By failing to indicate that the Environment Minister had adequately contemplated the impact of the mine on a pair of endangered species that live around the impact area, the environment department has undermined the legal sustainability of Carmichael's approval and this little part of the whole has to be addressed all over again. That is going to take maybe two months. But that might be time that Carmichael just doesn't have. And can we really expect that the even more fraught dredging approval will arrive in happy tandem with the redrafted mine sign-off? If not, then we might be into November and possibly beyond before Adani's approval-chickens are lined up. Again, that might be time that this project doesn't have. -- John Hepburn Executive Director The Sunrise Project www.sunriseproject.org.au<http://www.sunriseproject.org.au> p: +61 407 231 172<tel:%2B61%20407%20231%20172> e: [email protected]<mailto:[email protected]> s: johnhepburn ____________________________________________ The Sunrise Project Australia Limited ACN: 159 324 697