EFTA01460059.pdf

Charts of the Month — March/April 2016 Changes to 2016 GDP Estimate U.S. Valuations "Stretched" 20x 7.0% - The biggest change to our World GDP estimate came 6.0% • from the U.S. which was downgraded from 2.4% to lax 1.9% in 2016. 5.0% 16x 4.0% 3.0% -r 14x 2.0% 12x The recent rally in equities has pushed valuations to levels ... that warrant caution. 0.0% 10x U.S. Europe UK Japan China World • '11 12 13 '14 '15 --- (AVG) SW 500 Trailing P/E ■ November 2015 Forecast for 2016 GDP ■ March 2016 Forecast For 2016 GDP — S&P 500 Trailing PIE notnotes. Data as of March "c. 2016. Global Sovereign Yields Highly Correlated Production Cuts Good; More Needed 6% 10,000 • The ECBS aggressive central bank actions have According to the Department of Energy total oil pushed sovereign rates across Europe lower. production has fallen by nearly 600 milh'on 9.000 lob's/day. However. supply is still too high and will keeping the rise in U.S. rates muted. need to come down before a more meaningful 8.000 rebound in oil prices is seen. al 7.000 6.000 5.000 4/13 7/13 10/13 1/14 4/14 7/14 10/14 1/15 4/15 7/15 10/15 1/16 — Germany 10 Year Yield 4,000 — US Benchmark Bond 10 Year Yield Jan•10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Italy Benchmark Bond 10 Year Yield — Spain Benchmark Bond 10 Year Yield DOE Crude Oil Production - France Benchmark Bond 10 Year Yield Footnotes: Data as of March i C. Footnotes: Data rs as of March 18. 201E Source. FactSet, Deutsche Bank Wealth Managemeni Source. Bloomberg Finance LF, Deutsche Bank Wealth Management Deutsche Bank 20 Wealth Management CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. GRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0120959 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00267143 EFTA01460059