EFTA02513417.pdf

From: Daniel Sabba <alb Sent: Tuesday, February 3, 2015 2:50 AM To: jeffrey E. Cc: Vahe Stepanian Subject: FW: EOD Commodities Note - 2 Feb [C) Classification: Confidential Crude trading update.a:p> Prateek Jain Sent: Monday, February 02, 2015 4:32 PM Subject: EOD Commodities Note - 2 Feb Oil Very interesting price action today. For those of yo= that wonder why faltprice rallied 3%, yes prompt spreads sold off, yet h2=15 and 2015 spreads were strong, here is my attempt at an answer. The refi=ery strike news on a first look was bearish US crudes. Yet we rallied flatprice wise. The reason is that we ar= in the midst of a giant stopout since Friday. And product prices strength=ning affect worldwide margins etc and thus, BRE linked crudes got a bid fr=m products. Gasoline/BRE cracks were up over 1$ and HO cracks were up a similar amount; and spreads were b=d as well, so this was a product strength driven rally in the cracks. I th=nk this pulled BRE up which obviously pulled WTI up. But refinery outage s=ecific spreads did selloff like CLHSCLMS which is what you'd expect. There also was some producer he=ging in the broker market I saw. Which explains the H2 2015 and call6 spre=d rallies! But interestingly, flatprice was relentless in spite of thisr:=30;This seems bullish to me. In the N SEA, the window was mixed. Forties schedule did come out and shows 426kbd, up 8=kbd. So this definitely took its toll on the prompt BRE spreads. However, =e are still awaiting total BFOE numbers, and don't forget that Osebe=g was down. Another interesting thing was that Iraqi Jan loadings down 300kbd to 3.6M versus Dec of 3.9. Tha l7;s interesting. Iraq has set high goals for Feb exports, let's see=if it can achieve 3.3M of Basrah exports (a 730kbd gain from January sched=le)... Oil Vols The overnight rally and the big intraday move in oil=brought back gamma buyers and prompt vols were well bid at the open even a= crude traded unchanged for the day. And finally Brent rallied more than W=l, prompting better bids in Brent vol compared to WTI. Jun15 vol spread narrowed by 0.55 vol at the close an= still looks as an attractive sell to me.. We saw a couple of big buyers o= Brent Jun 55 puts.. Interestingly backend vols in WTI stayed soft.. we sa= a few atm call rolls go through, specifically in WTI Z5/Z6 with interest in buying Z5 vol vs Z6.. &=bsp; &nbs=; =nbsp; WTI (/change) &=bsp; &nb=p; BRE (/change)./span> EFTA_R1_01646579 EFTA02513417 H15 &nbs=; =nbsp; &nb=p; 58.20% +1.50% &nb=p; 52.75%= +6.20% M15 &nbs=; =nbsp; 45.50% +0.65% &n=sp; = 39.70% +1.20% Z15 &=bsp; &nbs=; 32.80% -0.25% =nbsp; 3=A0% +0.35% Z16 &nbs=; &=bsp; 24.25% -0.40% =nbsp; &nb=p; 23.50% +0.30% Base Metals 3m Ms &nb=p; =nbsp; dod change&nbs=; support = &=bsp; resistance Al $1872 &n=sp; = +$8 =nbsp; &nb=p; $1850 =nbsp; &n=sp; $1900 Cu $5500 &n=sp; = +$5 =nbsp; &nb=p; $5400 =nbsp; &n=sp; $5500 Zn $2124 &n=sp; = -$1 &nbs=; &=bsp; $2100 &nbs=; =nbsp; $2200 N $15,260 =nbsp; &nb=p; +$95 &nb=p; $15,000 &nbs=; =nbsp; $15,500 Pb $1850 &n=sp; = -$9.5 &n=sp; $1850 = &n=sp; &nbs=; $2000 The base complex started the day under pressure from=weak PMI data from China over the weekend but rallied at 10:30 due to a sp=ke in the oil price. Speculators are hoping that the weak Chinese PM= data will induce some stimulus from Beijing. Positive news from Europe was overshadowed by concerns over Greece. =edge funds and money managers increased their bearish positions on copper =o a 4 month high leaving the market exposed to a potentially large short c=vering rally if better news starts coming out of China (especially news on stimulus). The IA' (International A=uminum Institute) has stopped reporting on global aluminum stocks as=they do not consider the data to be an accurate reflection of inventories.=nbsp; Sumitomo Metal Mining Co, Japan's biggest nickel producer expects a deficit in 2015 as ore stockpiles in China run o=t towards the middle of the year Shanghai Aluminum on warrant stocks are down 1=12% to 54.8 kMT. LME Aluminum on warrant stocks are flat at 1731.6 kMT. Sh=nghai Copper on warrant stocks are down 0.26% to 37.6 kMT. LME Copper stoc=s are up 0.86% to 226.9 kMT. LME Nickel stocks are up 0.39% to 313.6 kMT. Copper Vols are unch, Ali Vols are down 0.56%, Nicke= Vols are down 0.54%, Lead Vols are unch Zinc Vols are unch Upcoming data 01/2/15-Chinese Manufacturing PMI- Sury 50.2, Act=al 49.8, Prior 50.1 02/2/15-HSBC Chinese Manufacturing PMI- Sury 49.8= Actual 49.7, Prior 49.8 02/2/15-Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI- Sury 5=, Actual 51, Prior 51 2 EFTA_R1_01646580 EFTA02513418 2/2/15-US Personal Income- Sury 0.2%, Actual 0.3%= Prior 0.4%, Revised 0.3% 2/2/15-US Personal spending- Sury -0.2%, Actual -=.3%, Prior 0.6%, Revised 0.5% 2/2/15- Markit US Manufacturing Sury 53.7, A=tual 53.9, Prior 53.7 Regards, Prateek Please=access the link for disclaimer: http://globalmarkets.db.com/new/content/3045.html &=bsp; Deutsc=e Bank External Business Conduct Standards can be found at www.DB.com/roddfrank This communication may contain confidential and/or privileged information. =f you are not the intended recipient (or have received this communication =n error) please notify the sender immediately and destroy this communicati=n. Any unauthorized copying, disclosure or distribution of the material in this communication is strictly forbidde=. Deutsche Bank does not render legal or tax advice, and the information cont=ined in this communication should not be regarded as such. 3 EFTA_R1_01646581 EFTA02513419