FW: From Todays JS

podesta-emails 1,717 words email

P17 V11 D6 V16 D4

-----BEGIN PGP PUBLIC KEY BLOCK----- mQQBBGBjDtIBH6DJa80zDBgR+VqlYGaXu5bEJg9HEgAtJeCLuThdhXfl5Zs32RyB I1QjIlttvngepHQozmglBDmi2FZ4S+wWhZv10bZCoyXPIPwwq6TylwPv8+buxuff B6tYil3VAB9XKGPyPjKrlXn1fz76VMpuTOs7OGYR8xDidw9EHfBvmb+sQyrU1FOW aPHxba5lK6hAo/KYFpTnimsmsz0Cvo1sZAV/EFIkfagiGTL2J/NhINfGPScpj8LB bYelVN/NU4c6Ws1ivWbfcGvqU4lymoJgJo/l9HiV6X2bdVyuB24O3xeyhTnD7laf epykwxODVfAt4qLC3J478MSSmTXS8zMumaQMNR1tUUYtHCJC0xAKbsFukzbfoRDv m2zFCCVxeYHvByxstuzg0SurlPyuiFiy2cENek5+W8Sjt95nEiQ4suBldswpz1Kv n71t7vd7zst49xxExB+tD+vmY7GXIds43Rb05dqksQuo2yCeuCbY5RBiMHX3d4nU 041jHBsv5wY24j0N6bpAsm/s0T0Mt7IO6UaN33I712oPlclTweYTAesW3jDpeQ7A ioi0CMjWZnRpUxorcFmzL/Cc/fPqgAtnAL5GIUuEOqUf8AlKmzsKcnKZ7L2d8mxG QqN16nlAiUuUpchQNMr+tAa1L5S1uK/fu6thVlSSk7KMQyJfVpwLy6068a1WmNj4 yxo9HaSeQNXh3cui+61qb9wlrkwlaiouw9+bpCmR0V8+XpWma/D/TEz9tg5vkfNo eG4t+FUQ7QgrrvIkDNFcRyTUO9cJHB+kcp2NgCcpCwan3wnuzKka9AWFAitpoAwx L6BX0L8kg/LzRPhkQnMOrj/tuu9hZrui4woqURhWLiYi2aZe7WCkuoqR/qMGP6qP EQRcvndTWkQo6K9BdCH4ZjRqcGbY1wFt/qgAxhi+uSo2IWiM1fRI4eRCGifpBtYK Dw44W9uPAu4cgVnAUzESEeW0bft5XXxAqpvyMBIdv3YqfVfOElZdKbteEu4YuOao FLpbk4ajCxO4Fzc9AugJ8iQOAoaekJWA7TjWJ6CbJe8w3thpznP0w6jNG8ZleZ6a jHckyGlx5wzQTRLVT5+wK6edFlxKmSd93jkLWWCbrc0Dsa39OkSTDmZPoZgKGRhp Yc0C4jePYreTGI6p7/H3AFv84o0fjHt5fn4GpT1Xgfg+1X/wmIv7iNQtljCjAqhD 6XN+QiOAYAloAym8lOm9zOoCDv1TSDpmeyeP0rNV95OozsmFAUaKSUcUFBUfq9FL uyr+rJZQw2DPfq2wE75PtOyJiZH7zljCh12fp5yrNx6L7HSqwwuG7vGO4f0ltYOZ dPKzaEhCOO7o108RexdNABEBAAG0Rldpa2lMZWFrcyBFZGl0b3JpYWwgT2ZmaWNl IEhpZ2ggU2VjdXJpdHkgQ29tbXVuaWNhdGlvbiBLZXkgKDIwMjEtMjAyNCmJBDEE EwEKACcFAmBjDtICGwMFCQWjmoAFCwkIBwMFFQoJCAsFFgIDAQACHgECF4AACgkQ nG3NFyg+RUzRbh+eMSKgMYOdoz70u4RKTvev4KyqCAlwji+1RomnW7qsAK+l1s6b ugOhOs8zYv2ZSy6lv5JgWITRZogvB69JP94+Juphol6LIImC9X3P/bcBLw7VCdNA mP0XQ4OlleLZWXUEW9EqR4QyM0RkPMoxXObfRgtGHKIkjZYXyGhUOd7MxRM8DBzN yieFf3CjZNADQnNBk/ZWRdJrpq8J1W0dNKI7IUW2yCyfdgnPAkX/lyIqw4ht5UxF VGrva3PoepPir0TeKP3M0BMxpsxYSVOdwcsnkMzMlQ7TOJlsEdtKQwxjV6a1vH+t k4TpR4aG8fS7ZtGzxcxPylhndiiRVwdYitr5nKeBP69aWH9uLcpIzplXm4DcusUc Bo8KHz+qlIjs03k8hRfqYhUGB96nK6TJ0xS7tN83WUFQXk29fWkXjQSp1Z5dNCcT sWQBTxWxwYyEI8iGErH2xnok3HTyMItdCGEVBBhGOs1uCHX3W3yW2CooWLC/8Pia qgss3V7m4SHSfl4pDeZJcAPiH3Fm00wlGUslVSziatXW3499f2QdSyNDw6Qc+chK hUFflmAaavtpTqXPk+Lzvtw5SSW+iRGmEQICKzD2chpy05mW5v6QUy+G29nchGDD rrfpId2Gy1VoyBx8FAto4+6BOWVijrOj9Boz7098huotDQgNoEnidvVdsqP+P1RR QJekr97idAV28i7iEOLd99d6qI5xRqc3/QsV+y2ZnnyKB10uQNVPLgUkQljqN0wP XmdVer+0X+aeTHUd1d64fcc6M0cpYefNNRCsTsgbnWD+x0rjS9RMo+Uosy41+IxJ 6qIBhNrMK6fEmQoZG3qTRPYYrDoaJdDJERN2E5yLxP2SPI0rWNjMSoPEA/gk5L91 m6bToM/0VkEJNJkpxU5fq5834s3PleW39ZdpI0HpBDGeEypo/t9oGDY3Pd7JrMOF zOTohxTyu4w2Ql7jgs+7KbO9PH0Fx5dTDmDq66jKIkkC7DI0QtMQclnmWWtn14BS KTSZoZekWESVYhORwmPEf32EPiC9t8zDRglXzPGmJAPISSQz+Cc9o1ipoSIkoCCh 2MWoSbn3KFA53vgsYd0vS/+Nw5aUksSleorFns2yFgp/w5Ygv0D007k6u3DqyRLB W5y6tJLvbC1ME7jCBoLW6nFEVxgDo727pqOpMVjGGx5zcEokPIRDMkW/lXjw+fTy c6misESDCAWbgzniG/iyt77Kz711unpOhw5aemI9LpOq17AiIbjzSZYt6b1Aq7Wr aB+C1yws2ivIl9ZYK911A1m69yuUg0DPK+uyL7Z86XC7hI8B0IY1MM/MbmFiDo6H dkfwUckE74sxxeJrFZKkBbkEAQRgYw7SAR+gvktRnaUrj/84Pu0oYVe49nPEcy/7 5Fs6LvAwAj+JcAQPW3uy7D7fuGFEQguasfRrhWY5R87+g5ria6qQT2/Sf19Tpngs d0Dd9DJ1MMTaA1pc5F7PQgoOVKo68fDXfjr76n1NchfCzQbozS1HoM8ys3WnKAw+ Neae9oymp2t9FB3B+To4nsvsOM9KM06ZfBILO9NtzbWhzaAyWwSrMOFFJfpyxZAQ 8VbucNDHkPJjhxuafreC9q2f316RlwdS+XjDggRY6xD77fHtzYea04UWuZidc5zL VpsuZR1nObXOgE+4s8LU5p6fo7jL0CRxvfFnDhSQg2Z617flsdjYAJ2JR4apg3Es G46xWl8xf7t227/0nXaCIMJI7g09FeOOsfCmBaf/ebfiXXnQbK2zCbbDYXbrYgw6 ESkSTt940lHtynnVmQBvZqSXY93MeKjSaQk1VKyobngqaDAIIzHxNCR941McGD7F qHHM2YMTgi6XXaDThNC6u5msI1l/24PPvrxkJxjPSGsNlCbXL2wqaDgrP6LvCP9O uooR9dVRxaZXcKQjeVGxrcRtoTSSyZimfjEercwi9RKHt42O5akPsXaOzeVjmvD9 EB5jrKBe/aAOHgHJEIgJhUNARJ9+dXm7GofpvtN/5RE6qlx11QGvoENHIgawGjGX Jy5oyRBS+e+KHcgVqbmV9bvIXdwiC4BDGxkXtjc75hTaGhnDpu69+Cq016cfsh+0 XaRnHRdh0SZfcYdEqqjn9CTILfNuiEpZm6hYOlrfgYQe1I13rgrnSV+EfVCOLF4L P9ejcf3eCvNhIhEjsBNEUDOFAA6J5+YqZvFYtjk3efpM2jCg6XTLZWaI8kCuADMu yrQxGrM8yIGvBndrlmmljUqlc8/Nq9rcLVFDsVqb9wOZjrCIJ7GEUD6bRuolmRPE SLrpP5mDS+wetdhLn5ME1e9JeVkiSVSFIGsumZTNUaT0a90L4yNj5gBE40dvFplW 7TLeNE/ewDQk5LiIrfWuTUn3CqpjIOXxsZFLjieNgofX1nSeLjy3tnJwuTYQlVJO 3CbqH1k6cOIvE9XShnnuxmiSoav4uZIXnLZFQRT9v8UPIuedp7TO8Vjl0xRTajCL PdTk21e7fYriax62IssYcsbbo5G5auEdPO04H/+v/hxmRsGIr3XYvSi4ZWXKASxy a/jHFu9zEqmy0EBzFzpmSx+FrzpMKPkoU7RbxzMgZwIYEBk66Hh6gxllL0JmWjV0 iqmJMtOERE4NgYgumQT3dTxKuFtywmFxBTe80BhGlfUbjBtiSrULq59np4ztwlRT wDEAVDoZbN57aEXhQ8jjF2RlHtqGXhFMrg9fALHaRQARAQABiQQZBBgBCgAPBQJg Yw7SAhsMBQkFo5qAAAoJEJxtzRcoPkVMdigfoK4oBYoxVoWUBCUekCg/alVGyEHa ekvFmd3LYSKX/WklAY7cAgL/1UlLIFXbq9jpGXJUmLZBkzXkOylF9FIXNNTFAmBM 3TRjfPv91D8EhrHJW0SlECN+riBLtfIQV9Y1BUlQthxFPtB1G1fGrv4XR9Y4TsRj VSo78cNMQY6/89Kc00ip7tdLeFUHtKcJs+5EfDQgagf8pSfF/TWnYZOMN2mAPRRf fh3SkFXeuM7PU/X0B6FJNXefGJbmfJBOXFbaSRnkacTOE9caftRKN1LHBAr8/RPk pc9p6y9RBc/+6rLuLRZpn2W3m3kwzb4scDtHHFXXQBNC1ytrqdwxU7kcaJEPOFfC XIdKfXw9AQll620qPFmVIPH5qfoZzjk4iTH06Yiq7PI4OgDis6bZKHKyyzFisOkh DXiTuuDnzgcu0U4gzL+bkxJ2QRdiyZdKJJMswbm5JDpX6PLsrzPmN314lKIHQx3t NNXkbfHL/PxuoUtWLKg7/I3PNnOgNnDqCgqpHJuhU1AZeIkvewHsYu+urT67tnpJ AK1Z4CgRxpgbYA4YEV1rWVAPHX1u1okcg85rc5FHK8zh46zQY1wzUTWubAcxqp9K 1IqjXDDkMgIX2Z2fOA1plJSwugUCbFjn4sbT0t0YuiEFMPMB42ZCjcCyA1yysfAd DYAmSer1bq47tyTFQwP+2ZnvW/9p3yJ4oYWzwMzadR3T0K4sgXRC2Us9nPL9k2K5 TRwZ07wE2CyMpUv+hZ4ja13A/1ynJZDZGKys+pmBNrO6abxTGohM8LIWjS+YBPIq trxh8jxzgLazKvMGmaA6KaOGwS8vhfPfxZsu2TJaRPrZMa/HpZ2aEHwxXRy4nm9G Kx1eFNJO6Ues5T7KlRtl8gflI5wZCCD/4T5rto3SfG0s0jr3iAVb3NCn9Q73kiph PSwHuRxcm+hWNszjJg3/W+Fr8fdXAh5i0JzMNscuFAQNHgfhLigenq+BpCnZzXya 01kqX24AdoSIbH++vvgE0Bjj6mzuRrH5VJ1Qg9nQ+yMjBWZADljtp3CARUbNkiIg tUJ8IJHCGVwXZBqY4qeJc3h/RiwWM2UIFfBZ+E06QPznmVLSkwvvop3zkr4eYNez cIKUju8vRdW6sxaaxC/GECDlP0Wo6lH0uChpE3NJ1daoXIeymajmYxNt+drz7+pd jMqjDtNA2rgUrjptUgJK8ZLdOQ4WCrPY5pP9ZXAO7+mK7S3u9CTywSJmQpypd8hv 8Bu8jKZdoxOJXxj8CphK951eNOLYxTOxBUNB8J2lgKbmLIyPvBvbS1l1lCM5oHlw WXGlp70pspj3kaX4mOiFaWMKHhOLb+er8yh8jspM184= =5a6T -----END PGP PUBLIC KEY BLOCK----- Fyi John Stocks Deputy Executive Director National Education Association 202-822-7523 Sent from my GoodLink Wireless Handheld (www.good.com) -----Original Message----- From: Michael J. Tate [mailto:[email protected]] Sent: Sunday, May 11, 2008 08:45 AM Eastern Standard Time To: Stocks, John [NEA] Subject: From Todays JS Wisconsin is a top target for McCain Some see it as senator's best chance to pick off a blue state By CRAIG GILBERT [email protected] Posted: May 10, 2008 Washington - If you ranked all of the TV markets in "blue-state" America according to how much advertising they saw from the 2004 Bush campaign and its allies, the list would begin like this: Milwaukee. Green Bay. Wausau. Pittsburgh, Pa. Scranton-Wilkes Barre, Pa. Madison. La Crosse-Eau Claire. That pretty much says it all about Wisconsin's place on the electoral map. Few blue states are fatter targets for Republicans. That was true for George W. Bush, who lost the state twice by an average of three-tenths of a percentage point. And it will be true again for John McCain, now busy crafting his battleground plans. "Wisconsin will be a top target," says McCain's director of strategy, Sarah Simmons, who worked for the Wisconsin GOP during the 2000 campaign. "There is a path to victory there." Of the 19 states won by the Democrats in 2004, Wisconsin is on a short list of best pick-up opportunities for the GOP. That assessment is based on recent history, current polling data and how insiders in both parties see the map. In a Wisconsin poll released last week by Rasmussen Reports, McCain edged out both Democrats, Barack Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton, leading each one 47% to 43%. In other state polls recently, McCain has led Clinton but trailed Obama. The margins aren't statistically significant, and the numbers will bounce around all year. But the polls underscore what many experts believe is a more reliable predictor of competitiveness, the state's recent history of extreme parity. "It is perhaps the best opportunity for McCain to pick up a state that was blue in 2004. It was so close, and McCain is the kind of Republican who might appeal in a state like Wisconsin," said Peter Brown of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute, which will be polling in Wisconsin this summer and fall in a joint project with The Wall Street Journal and The Washington Post. Both Brown and pollster Scott Rasmussen, who took the survey cited above, point to the state's large pool of ticket-splitting independents as a potential McCain constituency. That doesn't mean Wisconsin will end up being the closest state in 2008, as it was in 2004. It doesn't mean McCain will win Wisconsin, or even come as agonizingly close as Bush did. But it does mean that Wisconsin voters will be among the most courted in the nation by every measure of what a modern campaign does, from TV ads to news media to photo-ops at the local cheese factory or shooting range. The reasons are simple enough. Wisconsin is the only state decided by less than half a percentage point in each of the past two elections. It's bigger than most other states that are as fiercely competitive (Iowa, New Hampshire, New Mexico). And it has been more competitive than battleground states that are bigger (Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan). "At the end of the day, if you're John McCain and you think it's worth your while to target a blue state, Wisconsin is way up at the top of the list," says Democratic pollster Mark Mellman, who worked for John Kerry in 2004 and has surveyed extensively in Wisconsin for Gov. Jim Doyle. Mellman doesn't believe the list of winnable blue states for McCain is a very long one. He thinks Wisconsin is a more plausible GOP target than most other states the Democrats carried last time. "New Hampshire would be (on the list) too, but Wisconsin's got a lot more electoral votes. Yes, you'd be looking at Michigan, yes, you'd be looking at Pennsylvania, but you'd have to be looking at your prospects in Wisconsin even more positively than those other two states," Mellman said. Bush 2004 strategist Matt Dowd also sees Wisconsin as more competitive for McCain than the bigger blue prizes of Michigan and Pennsylvania. "I think he's got the potential to get Wisconsin, the potential to get New Hampshire back, maybe Maine . . . maybe something like Oregon," Dowd said. Some add Minnesota to the short list; Republicans put the upper Midwest in their crosshairs when they chose the Twin Cities to host their summer convention. State can offset losses The party's payoff for picking off a blue state the size of Wisconsin is immense. Bush had a 34-vote Electoral College edge in 2004 general election. For McCain, that means winning Wisconsin (10 electoral votes) would help offset the combined losses of red states Ohio (20 votes) and New Mexico (5 votes). If all three states flip and nothing else changes, Republicans would have 271 electoral votes. Democrats would have 267. (270 electoral votes are needed to win the presidency.) That suggests how indispensable Wisconsin is to a Democratic victory in a close election. And it explains much of the Bush campaign's preoccupation with the state in 2004 - its five bus trips, the fact that Wisconsin was one of four states (along with Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio) that accounted for more than half of the ad airings in the final full month of the campaign, according to data gathered by the Wisconsin Advertising Project. "The McCain campaign is going to have to look at where it can pick up electoral votes, given expected losses" in some red states, says GOP Rep. Jim Sensenbrenner, citing two states that flipped from blue to red in '04 - Iowa and New Mexico (a combined 12 electoral votes) - and could easily flip back again. "The easiest 10 (electoral votes) for the picking will be in Wisconsin," he contends. A different approach With the Democrats still competing, McCain is using the time to organize his general election campaign. In states such as Wisconsin, there is no campaign structure in place yet. But the McCain campaign recently set up a joint account with the national and state parties to channel money into turn-out efforts in Wisconsin and three other small to midsize battlegrounds: Minnesota, Colorado and New Mexico. The states were chosen because they are top '08 targets that don't generate much fund raising on their own and are logical places to steer party money raised elsewhere. McCain starts the general election campaign with a list of 24 targeted states, but that number will shrink as the campaign unfolds. He will target most of the same states as Bush did in '04, but his approach to those states will be different in key ways. While the Bush campaign was thoroughly top-down in its planning and decision-making, McCain aides say they will run a more decentralized campaign and that regional political directors, working with local supporters, will exercise more autonomy. Organizationally, Wisconsin is part of a three-state Great Lakes cluster that includes another blue-state battleground, Michigan, and a safe red state, Indiana. The director for those states just joined the campaign in the past two weeks. Strategically, the McCain campaign also will follow a different swing-state recipe than Bush. The signature of the 2004 Bush campaign was its extraordinary focus on the party base - on maximizing turnout of conservative and Republican voters. It believed that politics was so polarized there were fewer undecided voters to go after. McCain's approach will be different. With their candidate enjoying a reputation for crossing party lines and running in a poor climate for Republicans, "we will be gearing a lot of our presentations to independent voters and conservative Democrats," says Charlie Black, senior adviser to McCain. "If we could get 20% of blue-collar Democrats, we win," he says. McCain aides say they will have to play hard outside the GOP voting belt that stretches from the Milwaukee suburbs north through the Fox Valley and make inroads in western and northern Wisconsin. "I think John McCain has a special appeal (in the state) with his history of reaching across the aisle," says McCain aide Simmons, who notes that one of the best-known cases is his collaboration with Senate Democrat Russ Feingold of Wisconsin on the McCain-Feingold campaign law of 2002. Wisconsin Democrats, who have seen their party carry the state five elections in a row, are of different minds about the McCain threat. Many believe an Obama nomination, now likely, would make it harder for McCain to win the state because Obama has run stronger than Clinton in most state polls and trounced her in the February primary. Doyle, a big Obama backer, is skeptical that his party's Wisconsin winning streak would end in such a poor political climate for the GOP. "It's pretty hard to believe this is the one year . . . Wisconsin would vote for a Republican," Doyle said in an interview. But Feingold, McCain's Senate colleague, has repeatedly warned that beating McCain in the state will be a serious challenge. While Doyle doubts that McCain will be able to separate himself from his president and his party, Feingold isn't so sure. In an interview earlier this year, he said McCain is "a candidate who seems to be extremely conservative (but) will be very hard to characterize," and added that, in Wisconsin, "it's going to be tougher than winning it against Bush, and Bush barely lost it twice." ******************************************************************* Only the individual sender is responsible for the content of the message, and the message does not necessarily reflect the position or policy of the National Education Association or its affiliates.