EFTA01458273.pdf

1 September 2016 Corporate Credit: Back to school - The edge of normality Speed forecasts Below we update our spread forecasts into year-end for EUR and GBP credit. Generally ifs bullish although many of these indices now struggle to tighten through start of the year levels. Financial senior tightens but under-performs due to expectations of heavy supply. (Figure 10: Year End Spread Forecasts Stan ol Year Contra YF Forecast Cash Meant EUR 1G Non-Fin 99 121 105 -16 Fin Sonic( 74 98 90 -8 Fin Sub 2t9 233 210 -23 NY PM 436 451 385 -68 GBP 1G Non-Fin 151 169 145 -24 Fin Senior 120 136 120 -16 Fin Sub 271 283 250 -33 CDS Market Europe iTiaxx Main 63 75 60 -15 Crossover 346 340 280 -60 Fin SOSO( 67 85 70 •15 Fin Sub 149 170 140 -30 The remainder of the note looks at what we believe are some interesting topical themes and potential opportunities that exist in credit markets. We first look at the impact of commodity weakness on European credit and eye up potential opportunities, then move onto what we think is decent value at the long-end of IG curves and then look at how EUR credit has lost its valuation advantage it had relative to USD/GBP credit when we last explored this theme in late May. Deutsche Bank AG/London l'age / CONFIDENTIAL — PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0118108 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00264292 EFTA01458273