EFTA01459629.pdf

8 February 2016 US Equity Insights (Figure 1: Summary statistics on 40 2015 EPS reporting 4016 Summary (Based on reported companies) % of EPS Cos EPS I% of co's) EPS EPS Sales Mar co's) Sales Sales reported reported % beat % miss surprise (%: WY MI % beat % miss surmise I% y/y (%) S&P 600 79.2% 317 511% 24% 1.3% -2.4% 33% 46% -0.4% -3.4% S&P 500 ex. Financials 77.4% 246 61% 22% 2.6% -4.7% 33% 49% •0.5% -3.9% S&P 500 ex. Energy 78.9% 296 61% 22% 2.1% 4.2% 33% 45% -0.5% 1.8% S&P ex. Tech 76.3% 270 57% 27% 0.0% 4.5% 31% 49% -0.5% 4.6% S&P ex. Energy & Financials 76.9% 226 64% 19% 3.6% 3.2% 32% 48% -0.6% 2.0% Consumer Discretionary 47.7% 36 67% 26% 4.3% 20.9% 31% 56% 2.1% 5.7% Consumer Staples 55.1% 21 52% 24% 2.5% -2.0% 10% 62% -3.6% -2.9% Eno's)), 93.8% 21 33% 62% -21.1% -71.6% 43% 57% 0.4% -32.9% Financials 87.3% 71 52% 31% -3.5% 7.7% 36% 34% -0.3% 0.7% Health Care 82.3% 37 73% 8% 6.2% 9.3% 51% 27% co% 19.1% Industrials 92.7% 52 63% 25% 0.1% -1.4% 27% 54% -1.8% -7.4% Information Technology 87.9% 47 68% 6% 4.8% 0.6% 45% 28% 0.1% -1.7% Materials 79.1% 18 72% 11% 11.9% -20.3% 6% 83% -3.3% -16.5% Telecommunication Services 96.6% 3 33% 33% 0.8% 21.2% 33% 67% -0.0% 12.9% Utilities 47.9% 11 18% 55% -5.2% -4.8% 27% 64% -8.1% -16.7% Score letS Daisa,. Sent I Figure 2: Fishhooks: S&P 500 quarterly btm-up EPS Revisions ar S&P 500 sunny trm-up EPS manes 406 Figure 3: Revision to EPS during the calendar quarter vs. EPS beat during reporting (1O1 1 - now) a I a:\t 34 ■ Arg 0011.3015y 3 3% mou 32 2% 9 30 ou ..e, ten r‘a,r1 V a 25 Mg:40% a. 24 • .10% §fi§ 9 . §fi§§§9§e§99 9 nit 22+ •193 dung pd.. es newsy Sever $15. Onset, 804 San* *ES. Dana., Sea S&P 500 Energy capex was cut by over $60bn or —27% in 2015 and is expected to be cut by another $45bn or 27.5% in 2016. 'Figure 4: S&P 500 Energy capex 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 —S&P 500 (ibs) Energy (rhs) X ISrat *clued rented. or Ian paeura / anima Msf reirbanW 201'6 es ipscrinceInmost at . co --K Sotect Daisen• Eine. Corevarat. Corr., an Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. Page 3 CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0120185 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00266369 EFTA01459629