📄 Extracted Text (233 words)
31 October 2017
Railroads
Canadian Rails
irreversible structural advantage over CP. We do not think this is the case. and
expect CNI's multiple to revert closer to its historical 10-year average of 15.5x.
i-
Figure 122: CNI trades well above its historical fwd. PIE Figure 123: CNI trades inline with its U.S. peers but
nearly 10% above CP
24x
22x
20x
18x
16x
11x
14x
12x
rs 10x
1:12 03 TM OS 06 91 OS 99 10 '11 '11 13 'Le IS 16 17
Pr. P/C '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17
--CP U.S. Class l's
Sas. tearer Sewc• Dram.* Sent haSsig
On an EV/EBITDA basis, CNI currently trades at 12.2x our NTM EBITDA estimate.
This represents a significant premium to the company's five year historical
average.
I Figure 124: CNI's historical EV/EBITDA trends
13.5x 1
13.0x 1
12.5x 4
12.0x
11.5x /
11.0x 4
to.sx
10.0x
9.5x
9.0x
8.5x
8.0x
r
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t
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I
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--
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re
3 3 3 3 In la b 10 P
ea .641 elea. no 0a .6 4. is 4. 6ee a. A i
4
0
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EV/EBITDA
4
0
2 ,6 2 42
0 .
u- 2 <
— — —5-Yr. Avg.
cy
San DeurscAt &int former
Page 66 Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.
CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0064336
CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00210520
EFTA01371129
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