EFTA01367353.pdf

31 May 2015 Integrated Oil US Integrated Oils Government (KRG). As a result of the damage to pipeline infrastructure in the early part of 2014 from repeated ISIS attacks, pipeline exports from Northern Iraq averaged -185 Mb/d in 2014. Increased production from the Tawke and Taq Tact fields in Kurdistan amid the proposed financing backing from Baghdad and alongside re- built infrastructure, the KRG has announced a targeted pipeline export capacity/volumes of 800 Mb/d. However with current Northern Iraq export levels in excess of 600 Mb/d upside to Iraq production from the North is limited while contributions from the South remain more long- term in nature (see below section). The key driver for driving sustainability in the near-term (6-12 months) will be the extent to which Baghdad can continue to fund payments to the KRG - funds needed to pay the region's crude producers, if sustained our call on US onshore crude growth would be reduced by over 400 Mb/d. b) Saudi Production Outlook? Who knows...but our outlook looks reasonable assuming Saudi market share of global supply remains consistent with 5 year averages. With much speculation around what production level is consistent with forward Saudi strategy; our aim is not to identify a specific production level but rather to sensitize our outlook around Saudi's market share of global oil supply (a reasonable driver for Saudi production going forward). Assuming a 5 year average for Saudi market share of global oil, our call on US onshore growth remains -500 Mb/d through 2017. The US call on shore crude growth dips 200 Mb/d annually if we instead assume a forward market share similar to that in the 1H of 2014 for Saudi, and is effectively non-existent if Saudi were to maintain its current share. Figure 57: YoY Call on US Crude Gro14 / 11 Assumed Saudi Mkirkot Share of Global Crud,. 1000 900 800 rirs a' 700 .c 600 500 O c 400 O 300 O 200 To 0 100 0 -100 II 2017 2018 • Base (Holds Saudi Prod Flat to 2014 Levels) w/ Saudi Supply at 5 Yr Avg Global Market Share •w/ Saudi Supply at 1H14 Global Market Share • wl Saudi Supply at Current Global Market Share Sas • DOWS030 ail. EA Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. Page 35 CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0058886 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00205070 EFTA01367353