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📄 Extracted Text (520 words)
To:
From: e rey paw
Sent: Wed 10/9/2013 7:58:28 AM
Subject: Re: update
the losses are bad, take them.
On Wed, Oct 9, 2013 at 4:48 AM wrote:
Hi Jeffrey,
It has already been a long week in a long month and I wanted to communicate
about the position. It is down around $600k right now. About $173k is
realized, the rest is unrealized. The bulk of the unrealized losses are in and
AUD option, a NZD option and a GBP option, each approx $5-8 m notional.
I don't want to do anything without your agreement, since we are living in an
unprecedented insanity which could have dire consequences for U.S.
credibility and creditworthiness, but even if there is no debt default now,
eight days of a partial govt shutdown will have consequences on the
economy in months to come. I think that commercial real estate and the
bond market will be especially hard hit.
Originally I had two major premises supporting my higher USD/lower AUD,
NZD, CAD and JPY positions:
1.) major commodity prices would fall in reaction to slowing global growth
and oil importers would no longer need a strong currency to keep imported
USD denominated oil prices down.
2) the US treasury dept would work to keep the USD strong in order to
attract capital a market with falling bond prices.
It is possible that new economic stagnation could push oil prices down and
the USD up. It is possible that the US Treasury might try to attract capital
by trying to prop up the USD. I don't want to keep these positions at a time
like this without your approval, however. I was planning to reduce positions
further tomorrow, but this will inevitably lock in more losses. I was
planning on still keeping some small AUD and NZD positions, but only if
you feel comfortable keeping them at this time.
I am so grateful for the opportunity you ve given me. I have been pricing the
portfolio many times each day in hopes of finding a means of locking in
more profit. I realize that I am opening and closing delta hedges just to try
EFTA_R1_00422799
EFTA01953837
to make money because I hate being down as I am. I now think that this is
too dangerous a strategy and I want to take down alot of the risk, which will
involve locking in losses. No one hates to do it more than I do, but I don't
want to put you at more risk in case the US does default.
All thought appreciated. Thank you again.
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EFTA01953838
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