First Draft on Politics: Bush Is Still Waiting for Polling to Catch Up With Fund-Raising

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<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.01 Transitional//EN" "http://www.w3.org/TR/html4/loose.dtd"> <html> <head> <title></title> </head> <body> <p> <style> a, a:link, a:hover, a:active, a:visited { color: #326891; } #inner p { padding: 0; margin: 0 0 15px 0; } /* for sensible mobile email clients */ @media only screen and (max-device-width: 568px) { .wrapper #inner, .wrapper #footer { max-width: 100% !important; width: 100% !important; position: relative; margin: 0 auto; } .photo img { max-width: 100% !important; } } /* different headers for desktop vs. mobile */ @media only screen and (max-device-width: 619px) { #hed .desktop-display-date { display: none !important; } .hide { max-height: none !important; font-size: 12px !important; display: block !important; } #hed .branding { padding-top: 20px; } } </style> <table class="wrapper" style="position: relative; width: 100%; text-align: center; margin-left:auto; margin-right:auto;" width="100%"><tr><td align="center"> <table id="inner" style="color: #333; position:relative; font-family: georgia,times,serif; text-align: left; width: 600px; border-bottom: 3px solid #000; margin-bottom: 20px;" width="600"><tr><td> <div style="display: none !important; font-size: 0px; color: #fff; height: 0 !important; width: 0 !important;"> <div style="display:none!important; mso-hide:all;">Good Tuesday morning. Though the political world will be poring over the latest batch of emails from Hillary Rodham Clinton’s time as secretary of state, Jeb Bush’s campaign is hoping a new month will help bridge the sustained gap between his success in fund-raising and his lagging poll numbers. September has finally arrived, and for Mr. Bush, it isn’t a moment too soon. Mr. Bush, the former Florida governor, has not had a seasonal respite from his breakneck fund-raising of earlier this year. Nor has he had a stretch of good headlines. Instead, he’s had Donald J. Trump, a middling outing in the first Republican debate, and a string of supporters wringing their hands about when things will improve. The “super PAC” supporting Mr. Bush is set to go on air with television ads this month in the hopes of turning around his numbers. Mike Murphy, his longtime adviser who leads the group, has publicly sounded unconcerned about Mr. Trump’s ascension and insists there is no need to act any sooner. At the same time, the campaign has had to trim its sails in terms of spending, budget cuts that aides described as prudent rather than desperate. Three junior fund-raising consultants parted ways with Team Bush in recent days; while they were described in some reports as “key,” their roles with the super PAC have ended as well. In many respects, this is the product of Mr. Bush running his pre-campaign and his super PAC in tandem for six months. When the two were disentangled, the campaign was flying without a net, and officials there took some time to adjust. His fund-raising team, by all accounts, has been among the more tumultuous campaign divisions, in part because of scheduling issues and in part because of personality clashes. They are still adjusting, it seems, since budget concerns were the main reason Mr. Bush shook up his campaign before it started. Mr. Bush’s aides believe he is held to a different standard from other candidates, much like Mrs. Clinton, and they point to a cash advantage that is still likely to dwarf that of his closest competitors. But Mr. Bush will need to start putting some points on the board, and soon, to shake off a rough beginning.</div> </div> <div class="hide-from-wordpress hide-from-text-version" style="text-align: center; color: #999; font-family: nyt-franklin, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; padding-bottom: 10px;"> View <a href="http://p.nytimes.com/email/re?location=InCMR7g4BCLMQnpkk5MvplGHjZHVWFYy37Fha1nkmwg=&campaign_id=7779&instance_id=62406&segment_id=76779&user_id=30a142167a399d9be2c1b7c32e192bd2®i_id=63304329">First Draft</a> on the web | Add <a href="mailto:[email protected]">[email protected]</a> to your address book </div> <div id="hed" class="hide-from-wordpress" style="border-top: 3px solid #000; padding: 5px 0 15px;"> <div class="desktop-display-date hide-from-text-version"> <table width="100%"> <tr> <td style="font-family: nyt-franklin, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; text-align:left;">9/1/2015</td> <td style="font-family: nyt-franklin, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; text-align:right;"> <a href="http://p.nytimes.com/email/re?location=InCMR7g4BCLMQnpkk5MvplGHjZHVWFYy37Fha1nkmwg=&campaign_id=7779&instance_id=62406&segment_id=76779&user_id=30a142167a399d9be2c1b7c32e192bd2®i_id=63304329">nytimes.com/firstdraft »</a> </td> </tr> </table> </div> <div id="branding" class="branding hide-from-text-version" style="text-align: center;"> <a href="http://p.nytimes.com/email/re?location=InCMR7g4BCLMQnpkk5MvplGHjZHVWFYy37Fha1nkmwg=&campaign_id=7779&instance_id=62406&segment_id=76779&user_id=30a142167a399d9be2c1b7c32e192bd2®i_id=63304329"><img src="http://graphics8.nytimes.com/packages/images/nytint/projects/firstdraft/email-logo-260x75-2x.png" width="260" height="75" border="0" alt="First Draft"></a> </div> </div> <!-- end #hed --> <!--[if gte mso 12]> <div style="font-size: 1px; line-height: 1px;"> </div> <![endif]--> <div id="photo1" class="section photo" style="border-top: 1px solid #000; clear: both; padding: 20px 0; text-align: left;"> <div> <h2 style="font-family: nyt-franklin, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-weight: bold; font-size: 18px; margin: 0 0 10px 0;"><a href="http://p.nytimes.com/email/re?location=4z5Q7LhI+KVBjmEgFdYACKQh1JEPAsZdfyc9wlrSq35yzYtU4heo6wX+mELN1J9Gg4/cbaa1qLw=&campaign_id=7779&instance_id=62406&segment_id=76779&user_id=30a142167a399d9be2c1b7c32e192bd2®i_id=63304329" style="text-decoration:none; color:#000;"> Bush Is Still Waiting for Polling to Catch Up With Fund-Raising</a></h2> <center> <a href="http://p.nytimes.com/email/re?location=4z5Q7LhI+KVBjmEgFdYACKQh1JEPAsZdfyc9wlrSq35yzYtU4heo6wX+mELN1J9Gg4/cbaa1qLw=&campaign_id=7779&instance_id=62406&segment_id=76779&user_id=30a142167a399d9be2c1b7c32e192bd2®i_id=63304329"><img src="http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2015/09/01/us/politics/01firstdraft-jeb/01firstdraft-jeb-jumbo.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height: auto; background-color: #ccc; margin: 0 auto; border-style:none" width="600"></a> <p class="caption" style="font-family:georgia,times,serif; margin: 10px 0 15px 0; color: #777; font-size: 13px; line-height: 18px; max-width: 600px; text-align: left;">Jeb Bush spoke at the New Hampshire Education Summit meeting in Londonderry on Aug. 19. Brian Snyder/Reuters</p> </center> </div> </div> <!-- end #photo --> <div id="morning_briefing" class="section text" style="font-family: nyt-franklin,arial,helvetica,sans-serif; line-height:1.75em; text-align: left; clear: both;"> <h5 class="hide" style="max-height: 0px; font-size: 0; display: none; margin: 0; text-transform: uppercase; font-weight: bold;">9/1/2015</h5> <p style="color: #999; font-size: 16px; margin: 8px 0">By Maggie Haberman </p> <div style="font-family: georgia,times,serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 28px;"> <p><em>Good Tuesday morning. Though the political world will be poring over <a href="http://p.nytimes.com/email/re?location=4z5Q7LhI+KVBjmEgFdYACPLKh239P3pgKILjK9T2ICncxI3AarIKP6uFxiyYKj9TWTIyyXMFJj6Yg9GiWEINz8dlIe9Ywie0hC6n52KXwgOdAP5cMkXAjpw/qAn26/KNq8/7UxD7mqoXwdtCyDFcMrCHHBlxzLGO4dSNbgxZAUXXvsUHwzTxGZKXlqpyMkoh&campaign_id=7779&instance_id=62406&segment_id=76779&user_id=30a142167a399d9be2c1b7c32e192bd2®i_id=63304329">the latest batch of emails</a> from <strong>Hillary Rodham Clinton</strong>’s time as secretary of state, <strong>Jeb Bush</strong>’s campaign is hoping a new month will help bridge the sustained gap between his success in fund-raising and his lagging poll numbers.</em></p> <p>September has finally arrived, and for Mr. Bush, it isn’t a moment too soon.</p> <p>Mr. Bush, the former Florida governor, has not had a seasonal respite from his breakneck fund-raising of earlier this year. Nor has he had a stretch of good headlines. Instead, he’s had <strong>Donald J. Trump</strong>, a middling outing in the first Republican debate, and a string of supporters wringing their hands about when things will improve.</p> <p>The “super PAC” supporting Mr. Bush is set to go on air with television ads this month in the hopes of turning around his numbers. <strong>Mike Murphy</strong>, his longtime adviser who leads the group, has publicly sounded unconcerned about Mr. Trump’s ascension and insists there is no need to act any sooner.</p> <p>At the same time, the campaign has had to trim its sails in terms of spending, budget cuts that aides described as prudent rather than desperate. Three junior fund-raising consultants parted ways with Team Bush in recent days; while they were described in some reports as “key,” their roles with the super PAC have ended as well. In many respects, this is the product of Mr. Bush running his pre-campaign and his super PAC in tandem for six months. When the two were disentangled, the campaign was flying without a net, and officials there took some time to adjust.</p> <p>His fund-raising team, by all accounts, has been among the more tumultuous campaign divisions, in part because of scheduling issues and in part because of personality clashes.</p> <p>They are still adjusting, it seems, since budget concerns were the main reason Mr. Bush shook up his campaign before it started. Mr. Bush’s aides believe he is held to a different standard from other candidates, much like Mrs. Clinton, and they point to a cash advantage that is still likely to dwarf that of his closest competitors. But Mr. Bush will need to start putting some points on the board, and soon, to shake off a rough beginning.</p> </div> </div> <!-- end #text_with_byline --> <div class="ad hide-from-text-version" style="border-top: 1px solid black; padding-top: 20px; padding-bottom: 15px;clear:both;text-align:center;"> <div style="text-align:center;font:10px Arial, sans-serif;color:#ccc;padding-top:5px;padding-bottom:5px;">ADVERTISEMENT</div> <!-- ADXINFO classification="Med_Rec_-_Email" campaign="nl-2013remnant_html_Politics_LiveIntent" priority="1500" isInlineSafe="N" width="300" height="250" --><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" align="center"><tr><td colspan="2"><a style="display: block; width: 300px; height: 250px;" href="http://Z.GLAKA.COM/click?s=33351&t=newsletter&sz=300x250&li=Politics&m=30A142167A399D9BE2C1B7C32E192BD2&p=2015.09.01.10.53.57" rel="nofollow"><img src="http://Z.GLAKA.COM/imp?s=33351&t=newsletter&sz=300x250&li=Politics&m=30A142167A399D9BE2C1B7C32E192BD2&p=2015.09.01.10.53.57" border="0" width="300" height="250"/></a></td></tr><tr style="display:block; 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padding: 20px 0; padding-bottom: 20px; border-top: 1px solid black; text-align: left; clear: both;"> <h2 style="font-family: nyt-franklin, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-weight: bold; font-size: 18px; margin: 0 0 10px 0;"></h2> <div style="font-family: georgia,times,serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 28px;"><p><strong><em>Stay tuned throughout the day: Follow us on Twitter </em></strong><a href="http://p.nytimes.com/email/re?location=vzewYO/FHLQASSy22Gq8gbCUJ85a+zRrTPdRI/7QlwQ=&campaign_id=7779&instance_id=62406&segment_id=76779&user_id=30a142167a399d9be2c1b7c32e192bd2®i_id=63304329"><strong><em>@NYTpolitics</em></strong></a><strong><em> and on </em></strong><a href="http://p.nytimes.com/email/re?location=4z5Q7LhI+KWmuacvKaClnScR5XC3Nq7OYjPY39uL/imkPg0i0so/fA==&campaign_id=7779&instance_id=62406&segment_id=76779&user_id=30a142167a399d9be2c1b7c32e192bd2®i_id=63304329"><strong><em>Facebook</em></strong></a><strong><em> for </em></strong><a href="http://p.nytimes.com/email/re?location=4z5Q7LhI+KVBjmEgFdYACKQh1JEPAsZdfyc9wlrSq35yzYtU4heo62Iq8M/MIr5y&campaign_id=7779&instance_id=62406&segment_id=76779&user_id=30a142167a399d9be2c1b7c32e192bd2®i_id=63304329"><strong><em>First Draft updates</em></strong></a><strong><em>.</em></strong></p></div> </div> <!-- end #text --> <div id="bullets_big1" class="section upcoming" style="border-top: 1px solid black; padding: 20px 0; text-align: left; clear: both;"> <h2 style="font-family: nyt-franklin, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-weight: bold; font-size: 18px; margin: 0;">What We’re Watching Today</h2> <ul style="margin: 10px 0 0 0; padding: 0; font-size: 16px; font-family: georgia,times,serif;"> <li style="padding: 0; margin: 0 0 15px 0; font-size: 16px; line-height: 28px;"> <div class="item-description" style="text-decoration: none;"><p><strong>President Obama</strong> arrived in Alaska on Monday evening for a trip <a href="http://p.nytimes.com/email/re?location=4z5Q7LhI+KVBjmEgFdYACPLKh239P3pgKILjK9T2ICkC8+j/biI3P4MehnCnR8hD5ze2VoiBH1pOOCcyUmC5g83X49iHLuvebbsaQBwNQjQmPl/ZT6R06n4/jI7Dw5HwYzMXQ/7hQ6kGHhVgrKdHPme2FSyRVGyTV9E8W8863cly6iy2Itki95dmBAQRhvayBy6kzph7qk2ZnxV1Hutrvus3SorQkIOpRlf+LvEif10QhfMi0KRCwQClYumjHzY5Z9OnrQkN/L7mySYQMsD3RQ==&campaign_id=7779&instance_id=62406&segment_id=76779&user_id=30a142167a399d9be2c1b7c32e192bd2®i_id=63304329">to speak about climate change</a>, <a href="http://p.nytimes.com/email/re?location=4z5Q7LhI+KVBjmEgFdYACPLKh239P3pgKILjK9T2IClIfNZK2f1Uth4I2ZC7Qh47/GEnajtkhtX9AZTtoDq266AVXPM2rsHcKszGKyaPXN+8JqVJXjZfGm/CbhSOns6ZcP4aEga1akZYE61/9HgOxnudGdMNzhdkul/0VCZMqu+FFo1OF4L+LJIZEMQtufW3RE16RwFkyIMPEWBqc41sH4i9VqSBoDME25yFZB2O0BctgKWg9BghYcTXhZgw8kdf&campaign_id=7779&instance_id=62406&segment_id=76779&user_id=30a142167a399d9be2c1b7c32e192bd2®i_id=63304329">rename a mountain</a> and <a href="http://p.nytimes.com/email/re?location=nUZRVg/+1vuoqLFJDLDNo5cO+JEZkG243empz0btCl2AqDYVQdVEmdrjB0+R0D/5PiATKzjI8sDapRSMQY/sqNRhXmpnyTeVtYm8xkBBFNATJ+QURAp7tYnPzlCjF+APxNTllWxYaN0=&campaign_id=7779&instance_id=62406&segment_id=76779&user_id=30a142167a399d9be2c1b7c32e192bd2®i_id=63304329">appear</a> on a survivalist television show. On Tuesday, he will hike Exit Glacier, which is described as having a <a href="http://p.nytimes.com/email/re?location=4z5Q7LhI+KUYI9WaqCc2kMYHxE7MZYglDUqc7AFoXp9+Q85KO/VTwVgH+MxFRGzJamxrpUG64h8YAScIRBPSrQ==&campaign_id=7779&instance_id=62406&segment_id=76779&user_id=30a142167a399d9be2c1b7c32e192bd2®i_id=63304329">“moderately strenuous”</a> trail, and tour<a href="http://p.nytimes.com/email/re?location=4z5Q7LhI+KUYI9WaqCc2kMYHxE7MZYgl8ElDuGOJKV3zHH8Oc38tcg==&campaign_id=7779&instance_id=62406&segment_id=76779&user_id=30a142167a399d9be2c1b7c32e192bd2®i_id=63304329"> the Kenai Fjords</a> “to view the effects of climate change firsthand,” the White House says.</p></div> </li> <li style="padding: 0; margin: 0 0 15px 0; font-size: 16px; line-height: 28px;"> <div class="item-description" style="text-decoration: none;"><p>And<strong> Gov. Bobby Jindal</strong> of Louisiana and <strong>Rick Santorum</strong> will speak at the Northwest Family Leadership Regional Summit meeting in Iowa, where the public funding of Planned Parenthood will be a major topic.</p></div> </li> </ul> </div> <!-- end #bullets --> <div id="text2" class="section text" style="font-family: nyt-franklin,arial,helvetica,sans-serif; padding: 20px 0; padding-bottom: 20px; border-top: 1px solid black; text-align: left; clear: both;"> <h2 style="font-family: nyt-franklin, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-weight: bold; font-size: 18px; margin: 0 0 10px 0;">Democrats Inch Closer to Magic Number on Iran Deal</h2> <div style="font-family: georgia,times,serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 28px;"> <p>It’s a pivotal week for the Iran nuclear agreement as crucial remaining undecided Democrats make their views known, perhaps determining the deal’s fate a week before Congress is set to begin formally debating it.</p> <p>Five more Democratic House members on Monday <a href="http://p.nytimes.com/email/re?location=4z5Q7LhI+KVBjmEgFdYACPLKh239P3pgKILjK9T2ICncxI3AarIKP1DirrQZAcv/BktjcUstGpFAW/w+4VtHf96Hn8XPlZlk12NJ4TpBYboZpxZ/FLWI53Yh32CafHqO&campaign_id=7779&instance_id=62406&segment_id=76779&user_id=30a142167a399d9be2c1b7c32e192bd2®i_id=63304329">announced that they would back the agreement</a>, putting new momentum behind efforts by the House Democratic leadership to build a firewall against a possible veto override. On Tuesday, <strong>Senator Chris Coons</strong>, Democrat of Delaware, is to disclose his position on the nuclear pact at the Institute for Global Studies at the University of Delaware.</p> <p>With at least 31 Senate Democrats now saying they would back Mr. Obama on the deal, the White House needs just three more to reach the 34 that would make a veto override impossible in the Senate. Mr. Coons and other undeclared Democratic lawmakers are being closely watched, including <strong>Senators Benjamin L. Cardin</strong> of Maryland, the top Democrat on the Foreign Relations Committee; <strong>Bob Casey </strong>of Pennsylvania; <strong>Michael Bennet </strong>of Colorado; <strong>Maria Cantwell</strong> of Washington; and <strong>Cory Booker</strong> of New Jersey.</p> <p>Bolstered by the strong likelihood of lining up 34 votes, Senate Democratic backers of the deal now hope they can assemble 41 of the 46 Democratic votes to block congressional disapproval of the legislation through a filibuster, sparing Mr. Obama from having to issue a veto on the measure. But the Democratic ability to succeed might not become clear until the Senate returns next week.</p> <p>Given the Democratic direction on the deal, its opponents now realize they might have to begin reversing some Democratic commitments when lawmakers make it back to Washington.</p> <p><em>– Carl Hulse</em></p> </div> </div> <!-- end #text --> <div id="text3" class="section text" style="font-family: nyt-franklin,arial,helvetica,sans-serif; padding: 20px 0; padding-bottom: 20px; border-top: 1px solid black; text-align: left; clear: both;"> <h2 style="font-family: nyt-franklin, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-weight: bold; font-size: 18px; margin: 0 0 10px 0;">Professors From Trump’s Alma Mater Grade His Marketing Skills </h2> <div style="font-family: georgia,times,serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 28px;"> <p><strong>Mr. Trump</strong> has made a few things clear to voters as he has barnstormed the country making his case for the presidency. He will build a wall; he is very rich; and he went to Wharton – the University of Pennsylvania’s prestigious business school.</p> <p>Professors on campus are staying mostly mum about Mr. Trump’s presidential prospects, but when it comes to his political marketing skills, some of them cannot help but appreciate his results.</p> <p>“Short, clear statements are easy to process,” said <strong>Michael Platt</strong>, a professor of marketing and neuroscience at Wharton. “They do not rely on nuance or subtlety. That seems to resonate with people and possibly reinforces what I think are nonverbal signals Trump transmits, unknowingly, to the public.”</p> <p>Professor Platt suggested that Mr. Trump’s celebrity and physical features – his height and his confident scowl – are exploiting ancestral mechanisms that are appealing to the general public. Studies show that when people look at a face more often, they tend to prefer it, so the attention showered upon Mr. Trump may be reinforcing his favorability.</p> <p><strong>Jonah Berger</strong>, who also teaches marketing at Wharton, said that Mr. Trump might be gaining attention by shooting from the hip.</p> <p>“Controversy drives conversation,” Professor Berger said. “I think whether on purpose or by accident, he’s done a masterful job of using controversy to keep his name in the news.”</p> <p>As for Wharton, it has been handling its own bout of Trump publicity with care. The school has asked its faculty to avoid discussing Mr. Trump’s politics publicly. And his incorrect use of its name — he calls it “The Wharton School of Finance” — has not gone unnoticed.</p> <p>“He’s not treated in the most reverent tone here,” Professor Berger said. “But we wish all of our students well.”</p> <p><em>– Alan Rappeport</em></p> </div> </div> <!-- end #text --> <div id="bullets_big2" class="section upcoming" style="border-top: 1px solid black; padding: 20px 0; text-align: left; clear: both;"> <h2 style="font-family: nyt-franklin, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-weight: bold; font-size: 18px; margin: 0;">Our Favorites From The Times</h2> <ul style="margin: 10px 0 0 0; padding: 0; font-size: 16px; font-family: georgia,times,serif;"> <li style="padding: 0; margin: 0 0 15px 0; font-size: 16px; line-height: 28px;"> <div class="item-description" style="text-decoration: none;"><p>Some influential Republican figures <a href="http://p.nytimes.com/email/re?location=4z5Q7LhI+KVBjmEgFdYACPLKh239P3pgKILjK9T2ICncxI3AarIKP9l80zKifBFsTJdWDiqLsXNCUmYo9Yvzb40MN+qbPmPg6+DYhKa7JKcspNnplzAlypGMVIZvJBfVdNG/mXNHd+ARMMl5L56EeQ==&campaign_id=7779&instance_id=62406&segment_id=76779&user_id=30a142167a399d9be2c1b7c32e192bd2®i_id=63304329">worry</a> that <strong>Mr. Trump</strong>’s suggestions that he would raise taxes in certain areas could catch on with rivals in the presidential race.</p></div> </li> <li style="padding: 0; margin: 0 0 15px 0; font-size: 16px; line-height: 28px;"> <div class="item-description" style="text-decoration: none;"><p><strong>Rick Perry</strong> <a href="http://p.nytimes.com/email/re?location=4z5Q7LhI+KVBjmEgFdYACKQh1JEPAsZdfyc9wlrSq35yzYtU4heo6wcWH/CvMXRk6oslcw6btcDarDJ3I0N1946jadWIUNhPiowSN4boB71xgP5gB5QWpPuuShu0ZXsid9SUITddOP5QQRudU6MwUQyrV3P7QSa0&campaign_id=7779&instance_id=62406&segment_id=76779&user_id=30a142167a399d9be2c1b7c32e192bd2®i_id=63304329">has whittled down</a> his staff in Iowa to one paid operative amid continuing fund-raising struggles.</p></div> </li> <li style="padding: 0; margin: 0 0 15px 0; font-size: 16px; line-height: 28px;"> <div class="item-description" style="text-decoration: none;"><p><strong>Ben Carson</strong> <a href="http://p.nytimes.com/email/re?location=4z5Q7LhI+KVBjmEgFdYACKQh1JEPAsZdfyc9wlrSq35yzYtU4heo6wcWH/CvMXRkOxuZinMoZ5bKLf8yL6jatXJ1tGYOgdm5Ura0FatmzSqi9LaPEMhLfAFO1gfnaLjTBB1sTbkHNy0=&campaign_id=7779&instance_id=62406&segment_id=76779&user_id=30a142167a399d9be2c1b7c32e192bd2®i_id=63304329">has tied</a> <strong>Mr. Trump</strong> for the lead in Iowa, according to a new poll.</p></div> </li> <li style="padding: 0; margin: 0 0 15px 0; font-size: 16px; line-height: 28px;"> <div class="item-description" style="text-decoration: none;"><p>And the size of the crowds that <strong>Senator Bernie Sanders </strong>of Vermont has been drawing <a href="http://p.nytimes.com/email/re?location=4z5Q7LhI+KVBjmEgFdYACPLKh239P3pgKILjK9T2ICncxI3AarIKP61titQ2+4OKxHnqo4m3tj90O080BZ4vrjrrGiT1mL0Rxs1KMFQyGAj5i6SMH6UaNpRFJQ+bk3uITR2CfFczGyjq2LiSH8Ox7gdEpDmeU2cF4VeWgEvzVCUi3g7Y/A8dg0z3USP+0JcE&campaign_id=7779&instance_id=62406&segment_id=76779&user_id=30a142167a399d9be2c1b7c32e192bd2®i_id=63304329">should pay its biggest dividends </a>in Iowa.</p></div> </li> </ul> </div> <!-- end #bullets --> <div id="text5" class="section text" style="font-family: nyt-franklin,arial,helvetica,sans-serif; padding: 20px 0; padding-bottom: 20px; border-top: 1px solid black; text-align: left; clear: both;"> <h2 style="font-family: nyt-franklin, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-weight: bold; font-size: 18px; margin: 0 0 10px 0;">Biden to Speak at $10,000-a-Couple Fund-Raising Dinner in Miami</h2> <div style="font-family: georgia,times,serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 28px;"> <p>When <strong>Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr.</strong> visits Miami this week, he will have an opportunity to sound out some of the city’s biggest Democratic contributors about a presidential run.</p> <p>It is not on his official schedule, but Mr. Biden will be the keynote speaker at a $10,000-a-couple fund-raising dinner on Wednesday for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee at the home of <strong>Stephen H. Bittel</strong>, a prominent commercial real estate developer who raised over $200,000 for Mr. Obama’s re-election.</p> <p>The vice president has longstanding relationships in Miami’s donor community, and, as he considers a White House bid, has been in contact with <strong>Michael Adler</strong>, another real estate mogul there who raised well over six-figures for the Obama-Biden campaign in 2012.</p> <p>Notably, <strong>Senator Bill Nelson </strong>of Florida will also be at the Wednesday dinner: Mr. Nelson, a supporter of <strong>Mrs. Clinton</strong>, said on Friday that he did not think Mr. Biden would run for president.</p> <p><em>– Jonathan Martin</em></p> </div> </div> <!-- end #text --> <div id="bullets_big3" class="section upcoming" style="border-top: 1px solid black; padding: 20px 0; text-align: left; clear: both;"> <h2 style="font-family: nyt-franklin, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-weight: bold; font-size: 18px; margin: 0;">What We’re Reading Elsewhere </h2> <ul style="margin: 10px 0 0 0; padding: 0; font-size: 16px; font-family: georgia,times,serif;"> <li style="padding: 0; margin: 0 0 15px 0; font-size: 16px; line-height: 28px;"> <div class="item-description" style="text-decoration: none;"><p>The suggestion by<strong> Gov. Scott Walker</strong> of Wisconsin that a border wall might also be worth considering on the United States-Canada border, was met, <a href="http://p.nytimes.com/email/re?location=4z5Q7LhI+KUz+GhtiX9Csbh5WNZ/8raxfyc9wlrSq34TPWTDrB5AZNSGxW7GxHOSEQ4akYS3mO+NcMnJAj6wzgtluZH4hnjbB6lmd66zR1LKh/vKZh2KktY/Lf2U72qkwSQfsvnDRvMsmBMkISVusx0OyYhGlCGf&campaign_id=7779&instance_id=62406&segment_id=76779&user_id=30a142167a399d9be2c1b7c32e192bd2®i_id=63304329">Fox News writes</a>, by criticism from both parties.</p></div> </li> <li style="padding: 0; margin: 0 0 15px 0; font-size: 16px; line-height: 28px;"> <div class="item-description" style="text-decoration: none;"><p>And<strong> Gerald F. Seib</strong> at The Wall Street Journal <a href="http://p.nytimes.com/email/re?location=4z5Q7LhI+KVlB14i4cAMFU+d0NSu9j6Zp3ge6RzICHHp8+xiN4ntpk0ywiK+p0ex4ZlVrzowGRvr+r0mQwPOKfG/jH58XsOGHOfkjpZroRiwCYiia/jTRw==&campaign_id=7779&instance_id=62406&segment_id=76779&user_id=30a142167a399d9be2c1b7c32e192bd2®i_id=63304329">compares</a> this election cycle to that of 1968, seeing similarities in the issues, tensions and the threats to establishment candidates.</p></div> </li> <li style="padding: 0; margin: 0 0 15px 0; font-size: 16px; line-height: 28px;"> <div class="item-description" style="text-decoration: none;"><p>Republican hopes of taking back the Senate seat held by <strong>Mr. Bennet</strong> <a href="http://p.nytimes.com/email/re?location=4z5Q7LhI+KVYELvrN1vGGsAF62Au4JnqQqWBX03i5xGyKdXQKS3HxCbgvGplxIkJelsSPJf29knPinkOsDb6vg==&campaign_id=7779&instance_id=62406&segment_id=76779&user_id=30a142167a399d9be2c1b7c32e192bd2®i_id=63304329">are faltering</a> because of Republican Party chaos in Colorado, Politico reports.</p></div> </li> <li style="padding: 0; margin: 0 0 15px 0; font-size: 16px; line-height: 28px;"> <div class="item-description" style="text-decoration: none;"><p>The New Yorker <a href="http://p.nytimes.com/email/re?location=4z5Q7LhI+KVY9JId7aeEQ7gMpappEcLjGOj4JuViYNCYr2t6pIbLebnhoMP4vGm5vRVd5ZmLMJSXnv0Pco/yDfBOm2tmWxfqxNTllWxYaN0=&campaign_id=7779&instance_id=62406&segment_id=76779&user_id=30a142167a399d9be2c1b7c32e192bd2®i_id=63304329">examines</a> whether <strong>Mrs. Clinton</strong> is partly responsible for the Black Lives Matter movement.</p></div> </li> </ul> </div> <!-- end #bullets --> <div class="ad hide-from-text-version" style="border-top: 1px solid black; padding-top: 20px; padding-bottom: 15px;clear:both;text-align:center;"> <div style="text-align:center;font:10px Arial, sans-serif;color:#ccc;padding-top:5px;padding-bottom:5px;">ADVERTISEMENT</div> <!-- ADXINFO classification="Med_Rec_-_Standard" campaign="nyt2015_300x250_em_TimesJourneys_selectnewsletters" priority="1190" isInlineSafe="N" width="300" height="250" --><div align="center"> <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/adx/bin/adx_click.html?type=goto&opzn&page=email.nytimes.com/us/politicsemail/html&pos=Position3&sn2=9a54d5d4/132948d3&sn1=da777183/80c616a6&camp=nyt2015_300x250_em_TimesJourneys_selectnewsletters&ad=CRS-4995_TimesJourneys_New_300x250_retina_a.png&goto=http%3A%2F%2Funbouncepages%2Ecom%2Ftimes%2Djourneys%2Dbrochure%2Dnovember%2D2014%2F" target="_blank"> <img src="http://graphics8.nytimes.com/adx/images/ADS/40/28/ad.402883/CRS-4995_TimesJourneys_NewCatalog_ER1_300x250_retina_a.png" width="300" height="250" border="0"> </a> </div> </div> <div id="text4" class="section text" style="font-family: nyt-franklin,arial,helvetica,sans-serif; padding: 20px 0; padding-bottom: 20px; border-top: 1px solid black; text-align: left; clear: both;"> <h2 style="font-family: nyt-franklin, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-weight: bold; font-size: 18px; margin: 0 0 10px 0;">Christie Finds Welcome Banter on ‘The Tonight Show’</h2> <div style="font-family: georgia,times,serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 28px;"> <p><strong>Jimmy Fallon</strong> was shocked to hear he wasn’t the first “Jimmy” to come to <strong>Gov. Chris Christie</strong>’s mind.</p> <p>“I’m from New Jersey, do you know how many Jimmies I know?” Mr. Christie said, before they broke into a laugh.</p> <p>Mr. Christie’s appearance on “The Tonight Show” on Monday seemed less an interview and more a casual-yet-caffeinated banter between on-screen friends.</p> <p>Mr. Fallon previewed the interview in his monologue, saying that Mr. Christie “showed up in one of <strong>Miley Cyrus</strong>’s outfits from the V.M.A.s last night.”</p> <p>And as Mr. Christie told a story about getting ice cream with <strong>Mitt Romney</strong> and <strong>Senator Marco Rubio</strong> of Florida and their families in New Hampshire over the Fourth of July, Mr. Fallon cut him off.</p> <p>“First of all, you weren’t like ‘all right,’ ” Mr. Fallon said with a sheepish inflection, imitating how Mr. Christie told the story. Mr. Fallon then pumped his fists like a kid excited about his Rocky Road. “You were like, ‘Yahoo!’ ”</p> <p>Mr. Christie momentarily acted offended and wandered offstage, before returning to finish the story, explaining that the three Republican leaders floundered for cash to treat their children to ice cream before being saved by <strong>Ann Romney</strong>.</p> <p>“Don’t worry, would-be presidents, I have it handled,” she chided them, Mr. Christie said.</p> <p>But amid the joking and jockeying, Mr. Fallon hit on a point plaguing the Christie campaign as it struggles to gain traction in the crowded field.</p> <p>“And now Trump is running, and boy, is he just going out and yelling and saying stuff,” Mr. Fallon said. “I thought that was going to be your thing.”</p> <p>The smile Mr. Christie had been wearing for the entire interview twitched a little, before he responded: “Life is a strange, strange ride, Jimmy, and we’ll just keep riding it.”</p> <p><em>– Nick Corasaniti</em></p> </div> </div> <!-- end #text --> <div id="footer" class="hide-from-wordpress" style="border-top: 1px solid #000; padding: 20px 0; font-family: nyt-franklin, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12px;"> <p>First Draft is sent weekdays before 7 a.m. and is updated throughout the day at <a href="http://p.nytimes.com/email/re?location=4z5Q7LhI+KVBjmEgFdYACG6LS8HPxdH8MwGDDvScVT4X3iS9n4WVPg==&campaign_id=7779&instance_id=62406&segment_id=76779&user_id=30a142167a399d9be2c1b7c32e192bd2®i_id=63304329">nytimes.com/firstdraft</a>. 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