EFTA01459691.pdf

15 January 2016 Global Economic Perspectives: China's evolving FX policy F inancial Forecasts 16 Apr, Euro UK :155-e• Swill.' Can' Awl 612.• 3M lowor-I Actual 0.26 0.15 .0 14 0.59 -0.35 -0.75 0.50 2.00 2.50 Rao' 0.15 U'S 0.35 -075 0.50 2.00 2.50 lomeasts Aun.16 1.08 0.15 .0 15 0.61 -0.35 0 75 0 50 1 011 250 1.33:1111110,16 -0.1$ 0.66 -0.35 -0 75 076 200 250 101' Gov' Actual 2.01 040 0.53 1.75 na 11 a 1.25 2 15 3.31J Pond/64515 5 50 a:ii: 9.71.1 n,a. n4 300 350 SpHods' Jiro 10 2.75 0.45 0.75 1.90 Da no. 1.90 3.00 350 DB lorecastz; 2,25 015 MO 2,20 ta. as 265 3.00 3.26 FUR/ WE:: RIR/ GDP: FUR, EURI USD/ AM NNW uF.D JPv GBP USD V i: CHF CAD USD USD Erawng. Actual ' 09 ' 17.4 0.76 144 928 1.09 143 0.69 0.65 Rows • y1.!.: "rwir 106 UN t. a NW Jun.16 7 02 '75 0 0 73 1 40 990 1 10 1 40 0.66 0.60 =nee 0.95 120.0 034 1.26 015 1.12 1.43 0.60 Ilre$2 If)Iowan dm um formMrs • .10(00 poW tees fl)FOSS MSS* anfrocks,Cy Om reps/ ton ecant granny a EIS MVOS beleSeSoon AIS den Sin from USRS SS* WS* Seinen areeinanRaniLA SOS Sag fl•••••\* Resod AYsib n fobSo I US 10Y rates Euroland 10Y rates Euro government bond yields, % US government bond yields, % 6.0 2.5 6.0 5.0 5.0 2.0 4.0 4.0 1.5 5.0 3.0 3.0 1.0 4.0 2.0 0.5 2.0 3.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 -0.5 - 0.0 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 —10Y 27110Y set (rhs) lay 2Y/10Y spread (Ms) 1.0 -1.0 2002 2009 2006 2006 2010 2012 2014 2016 Saint OnatrA• Sint RSentik BIsertS SASLP SS DOSS EIS now* saaroapA I neeis [Japan 10Y rates UK 10Y rates 2.5 Japan government bond yields, % 2.0 7.0 UK government bond yields, % 3.5 2.0 6.0 • 3.0 1.5 2.5 5.0 1.5 2.0 1.0 4.0 1.5 1.0 3.0 1.0 0.5 0.5 2.0 0.5 0.0 YilOY spread Urn) 1.0 • I0Y —2Y/10Yspread ON) -0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1.0 2002 2004 2006 2003 2010 2012 2014 2016 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Sect Dooncto Sant ltetriren Illstrry SomeIP Sere DDSS1st Moss* Socrnbry Sons (P Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. Page 17 CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0 120313 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00266497 EFTA01459691