EFTA00803486.pdf

Stock Price 523.68 lune 2020 Price Tamet lune 2021 Price Tercet FOS 0/S 287 lune 2021 Gross Profit 1,109 lune 2022 Gross Profit 1428 Market Cap 6,762 EV/GP multple 10.0x EV /GP multiple Debt 0 1EV 11,094 TEV 16,284 Cash Ella Debt 0 Debt 0 1EV 6,312 CMG (522) CASh 17851 Market CM 11,667 Market Cap 16,785 FOS 0/S 309 EDS 0/S 315 Price target $37.79 Puce Target 553.35 %gross return 60.3% % gross return 126.3% Gross IRR 43.1% Gross IRR 42.3% 1942 '194.4 l 192 l 201 1 21E 1ur22E lu 23E lu 246 CAGR S.vs GAGA Consollektod Mt Equoment Revenue 5700 $1,347 $1,962 $2,691 $3,421 $4,150 56.7% 42.8% Subscription Revenue 5184 5386 5680 51,096 51.607 52.267 81.2% 65.2% Toni Revenue 5884 $1.733 62.641 53.787 54021 56,416 62.4% 48.6% % II:rye/lenge 103.216 96.0% 52.4% 43.4% 322% 27.6% 5 soy change 449 849 908 1,146 1,241 1,388 EV/Revenue 7.1x 3.6x 24x L7x Lax Lac % tool revenue Equipment revenue 79.2% 77.7% 74.3% 71.2% 63.0% 64.7% Sant-notion revenue 20.8% 22.3% 25.7% 28.9% 32.0% 35.3% Equipment Gross Profit 5266 5450 5674 $916 $1,177 $1433 Subscription Gross Profit 5114 5243 5435 $712 $1,061 $1.519 Gross Profit $360 $693 $1,109 $1,625 $2,238 $2,952 62-4% 90.7% OS on change 85.9% 132.4% 600% 462% 37.4% 31.9% % margin 43.0% 40.016 42.0% 43.0% 44.9% 4602E $ op change 176 313 416 319 609 714 EV /Gross Pratt 16.6x 9.1x Six 3.9x 2AR 21x % total gross profit Equipment Gross Profit 70.016 64.9% 60.8% 56.3% 52.6% 495% Subsenpoon Gross Profit 30.016 35.1% 39.2% 43.7% 47A% 51.5% ODeratirg Expenses ($483) ($869) 41,181) 61,476) ICLA") .• l$2,162) m 45.2% 35.0% OS pay change 125.0% 300% 36.0% 25.0% % soles (54.6) 16 (XV% (447/76 (390)% 135.8.1% 13171% MP 4110494 (268) (386) (313) (295) 1325) 1360) EBITDA 0 142) ($13S) 0 724 $162 $436 $790 On, n/m % yoy change 923.5% 72.2% 09.0)% (321.7)% 137.2% 81.1% %margin 01.6116 (MU% (2.7)% 4.0% 8.7% 12.3% $ MP change (92) (73) 103 224 284 354 EV / EMMA (6L7)x (3&0)x (17.9)x 41-5x 14.14 8.0x EFTA00803486  •1922 •1924 lun•19E km201 lun.21E lun.X2E 14.7.38 lun.24E 9vrCAGR 5Me GAGA PaduaRama 0-mulative ekes Seed 502 862 1,337 1,937 2.662 3.587 56.8% 48.2/6 55 Kr.', change 99.2% 72.7% 55.2% 44.9% 374% 34.7% 9 pay change 250 360 475 600 725 925 li ke Unns Sad 250 360 475 600 725 925 33.9% 29.9/6 % nay change 76.2% 44.0% 32.9% 26.3% 202% 27.6% 0 varchangc 209 110 115 225 225 200 like ASP $1,836 $1,789 $1,710 $1,710 $1,710 $1,642 12.31% 42.21% %Kt change (6.4116 (26)16 (4.4)% 00% 0.0% (40)% $ Pay change ($225) ($49) an) $0 $0 (268) % discount factor 51-8/16 (20)% (2.0)% (2.0)5 (2.0)% (2.01% Ike Equipment Revenue $459 $644 $812 $1,026 $1,240 $1.519 30.7% 27.0% %Kt change 64.9% 40.2% 26.2% 26.3% 202% 225% $ gag change 281 285 268 224 224 279 0 -mutative treadmills Sold 25 150 405 785 1,290 1,965 215.5% 139.4% %Kt change No 500.0% 1700)6 932% 64.3% 52.3% 4 goy change 25 225 255 380 505 675 treadmill Units Sold 25 125 255 380 505 675 147.7% 93.3% 5Soar change Na 400.0% 104.0% 49.0% 32.9% 33.7% 4 pay change 25 200 230 225 225 270 treadmill ASP $3,915 $3,425 $2,935 $2,935 $2,935 $2442 19.21% (7.61% %Kt change 00% (.12.5)% (243)% 00% 00% (20.0)% $ Paychange 0 (090) (490) 0 0 0911 % discount peter (2.0116 (20J% (2.0)% (2.0)% (2.0)% (2.0)% 1%,400687.0149ment Revenue $911 MU $748 $1,115 $1,482 $1,783 225.0% 78.7% %my change No 331.4% 74.8% 49.0% 32.9% 203% $ log change 92 330 320 367 367 302 Accesscees and Other Revenue 5143 5275 5401 WO $699 $848 56.7% 42.8% %mychange 100.016 92.5% 45.6% 372% 271% 213% $ Pay change 72 132 126 249 249 249 % comment revenue 25.7% 25.7% 25.7% 25.7% 25.7% 25.7% total Equipment Revenue $700 $1.347 51.962 $2.691 $3.421 $4,150 56.7% 422% %on change 1000% 92.5% 45.6% 37.2% 27.2% 21.3% $ Pay change 350 647 614 730 730 728 EFTA00803487  1942 '1944 lun.192 nal.202 ln.211 1L41.221 1un33E lun.241 9vfCAGR 5 CAGR Subsoiptlen Revenue Paving &kt Subscnbers 416 718 1,120 1,632 2,257 3059 57.8% 49.1% )6 ',nalonge 59.216 72.9% 56.0% 45.7% 38.2% 35.5% 2 909chonge 207 302 402 522 624 202 Mnmuheen boje 82.816 23.3% 83.856 84.3% US% 85.3% Bike Setnensinn ASPU $35.96 $37.95 $37.95 $37.95 $37.95 $37.95 1.8% 1.1% % Aechoer 5.9% 5.6% 0.0X 0.0% 0.0% 00% 5109 drangt $200 $2.00 $000 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 % alscoum fottor (20.01% (Se% (5.0)% MO> (5.0)% (5.0)% Ike SubscriptIon Revenue $179 $327 $510 $743 $1,028 $1,393 60.7% 50.7% 95 ne Mange 120.916 22.3% 56.0% 45.7% 38.2% 35.5% $ loychonge 94 148 183 233 284 365 Paving Trendmin Subsenbers 6 105 320 652 1,077 1,651 370.6% 205.0% % oe change Wo 1590.016 202.6% 1012% 65.3% 53.2% 9 yoychonge 6 99 229 3213 426 573 % «muh:stet boje 25.0% 70.0% 80.0% 83.0% 83.5% 84.0% IreadmdiSubscrpoon ARPU $35.96 27.95 97.95 $37.95 $37/35 $37.95 1.8% 1.1% %)oychange 5.9% 5.6% 0.016 0.0% 0.0% 00% $ loydronge $200 $200 wer sacia $000 $000 % alscoum factor (20.0)16 (Se% (5.0)% (5.01% (5.0)% (5.0)% Trendla Sebudeton Revenue $3 $48 $148 $297 $491 $752 Nm 20114% 'Smcharge Wo 2673.3% 2026% 201.2% 65.3% 53.2% 5 Ionbonge 3 45 100 149 194 262 Payng Muht Subscnbers 10 50 100 250 400 550 'en 122.9% % Ancharge Wo 400.0% 1000% 250.0% 60.0% 37.5% 2109chonge 10 40 50 150 250 ISO Moble Stemotion ARPU $17.51 $18.48 $18.48 $18.48 $18.49 $18.4s 1.8% 1.1% % Ancharge 0016 5.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 00% 5 Ionbonge $000 $0.97 WM $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 % alscoumfactor (20.0114 (sag espi (5.07% (5.0)% (5.0)% Mobile Subunpbon Revenue $2 $11 $22 $55 $89 $122 Nm 1Z.-1% 'Soechoer Wo 427.8% 10,10/1 250.0% 60.0% 37.5% $129 220^9e 2 9 11 33 33 33 0.9% Total Subsenbers 432 873 1,544 2,534 3,734 5,259 ein. 64.9% %)nychange 107.0% 102.2% 76.916 60.2% 47.2% 409% 4 yoychonge 223 441 671 990 1,200 1,526 Total Subscriptlen Revenue $184 $326 $680 $1.096 $1.607 $2,267 81.2% 65.2% % .ny Mange 126.6% 109.6% 76.2% 61.2% 46.7% 4L2% $3o9 drangt 99 202 294 416 511 660 EFTA00803488