podesta_email_02003.txt

podesta-emails 3,331 words email

P17 V11 V16 P23 D4

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http://www.centerpeace.org ** Israel and the Middle East News Update ------------------------------------------------------------ ** Monday, January 26 ------------------------------------------------------------ Click here for a printer-friendly version. (http://centerpeace.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/January-261.pdf) Headlines: * Netanyahu: Iran Deal Dangerous for the World, Will Allow Production of Nukes * Dermer: PM Has 'Sacred Duty' to Oppose Iran Nuclear Deal * Boehner: We Gave White House Heads Up on Netanyahu * Michael Oren Calls on Netanyahu to Cancel Congress Speech * Rivlin Invited to Meet Obama During First US Visit as President * Washington Officials: Netanyahu 'Playing Politics' at Expense of Israel-U.S. Ties * Netanyahu Attacks Media for Stories on Wife Sara: 'Leave My Family Alone' * Hezbollah Says Israel Wants to Set 'New Rules' with Syria Raid Commentary: * Yedioth Ahronoth: “A Great Gift to Iran" - By Nahum Barnea * New York Times: "Political Sabotage over a Deal with Iran" - By Ellie Geranmayeh ** Jerusalem Post ------------------------------------------------------------ ** Netanyahu: Iran Deal Dangerous for the World, Will Allow Production of Nukes (http://www.jpost.com/Israel-News/Wests-emerging-nuclear-deal-with-Iran-unacceptable-to-Israel-Netanyahu-says-388994) ------------------------------------------------------------ The deal under negotiation between the six world powers and Iran would still leave it the capacity to produce dozens of nuclear bombs, Prime Minister Netanyahu warned on Monday. The agreement that is emerging now between the P5+1 countries - the United States, Russia, China, Great Britain, France and Germany - and Iran is unacceptable to Israel, Netanyahu said. It “is dangerous for Israel, the region and the world,” he said as he explained that under its terms Iran would remain a nuclear threshold state. “It leaves Iran with the ability to produce the material needed to produce a nuclear bomb within a few months, and later, it could produce dozens of nuclear bombs,” Netanyahu said. ** Ha'aretz ------------------------------------------------------------ ** Dermer: PM Has 'Sacred Duty' to Oppose Iran Nuclear Deal (http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/.premium-1.639006) ------------------------------------------------------------ Disavowing any disrespect towards President Obama or any intent to intervene in American politics, Israel’s U.S. ambassador Ron Dermer says that Prime Minister Netanyahu has a “sacred duty” to speak up in Congress against the proposed nuclear agreement with Iran which, in Dermer’s words, “could endanger the very existence of the State of Israel.” In an address to an Israel Bonds gala dinner in Boca Raton, Florida, Dermer said “there may be some people who believe that the Prime Minister of Israel should have declined an invitation to speak before the most powerful parliament in the world on an issue that concerns the future and survival of Israel. But we have learned from our history that the world becomes a more dangerous place for the Jewish people when the Jewish people are silent.” ** Times of Israel ------------------------------------------------------------ ** Boehner: We Gave White House Heads Up on Netanyahu (http://www.timesofisrael.com/boehner-we-gave-white-house-heads-up-on-netanyahu/) ------------------------------------------------------------ US Speaker of the House John Boehner said Sunday night that he informed President Barack Obama that he’d asked Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to speak before Congress hours before the invite was made public. Boehner and Netanyahu agreed that the Israeli prime minister would speak in Washington on March 3 without consulting the administration — the customary policy on such things. But it gave rise to anger in Washington and to criticism in the media. Asked about the White House’s statements that it had been blindsided by the plan, Boehner told CBS’s “60 Minutes,” “We gave them a heads up that morning.” ** Ynet News ------------------------------------------------------------ ** Michael Oren Calls on Netanyahu to Cancel Congress Speech (http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4618687,00.html) ------------------------------------------------------------ Member of Kulanu and Israel's former ambassador in Washington Michael Oren has called for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to cancel his planned address to Congress. "The behavior over the last few days created the impression of a cynical political move, and it could hurt our attempts to act against Iran," said Oren. "It's advisable to cancel the speech to Congress so as not to cause a rift with the American government. Much responsibility and reasoned political behavior are needed to guard interests in the White House." ** Ynet News ------------------------------------------------------------ ** Rivlin Invited to Meet Obama During First US Visit as President (http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4619007,00.html) ------------------------------------------------------------ President Reuven Rivlin has rejected an offer to meet with US President Obama, a statement from his office said Sunday as he left on his first official visit to the United States, where he will address a UN session marking 70 years since the end of the Holocaust. His trip comes at a point of high tension between Israel and Washington after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu accepted a controversial invitation to address a joint session of Congress in early March in a move which was not coordinated with the White House. Netanyahu defended the move on Sunday, saying it was his obligation to help Israel wherever he can. See also, “Scheduling, not Netanyahu, prohibits Obama-Rivlin meeting” (Jerusalem Post) (http://www.jpost.com/Israel-News/Politics-And-Diplomacy/Scheduling-not-Netanyahu-prohibits-Obama-Rivlin-meeting-388907) ** Ha'aretz ------------------------------------------------------------ ** Washington Officials: Netanyahu 'Playing Politics' at Expense of Israel-U.S. Ties (http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/1.638837) ------------------------------------------------------------ Senior U.S. officials continued over the weekend to harshly criticize Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu over the invitation from leading Republicans to address Congress in March. In background briefings to U.S. media outlets, administration officials said Netanyahu was “playing politics” at the expense of the U.S.-Israeli strategic relationship. The Washington Post quoted senior U.S. officials who attacked Netanyahu and Israel’s Ambassador to the United States, Ron Dermer. ** Jerusalem Post ------------------------------------------------------------ ** Netanyahu Attacks Media for Stories on Wife Sara: 'Leave My Family Alone' (http://www.jpost.com/Israel-News/Netanyahu-attacks-media-for-stories-on-wife-Sara-Leave-my-family-alone-388975) ------------------------------------------------------------ Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu lashed out at the media on Monday after reports emerged Sunday over his wife Sara's allegedly untoward behavior toward staff at the couple's official residence in Jerusalem. Netanyahu took to his Facebook page, accusing the media of taking its campaign against him to a new, personal level. "The media attack against my wife Sara is yet another low point for some leading memebrs of the Israeli media that will use any means to hurt me and my political path," Netanyau charged. "The 'Anyone but Bibi' campaign has become 'Anyone but Sara' - anything in order to defame, denounce, attack, to do all in their power to unseat the Likud under my leadership and pave the way for the Left," he said. ** Reuters ------------------------------------------------------------ ** Hezbollah Says Israel Wants to Set 'New Rules' with Syria Raid (http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/01/25/us-lebanon-hezbollah-idUSKBN0KY0JL20150125) ------------------------------------------------------------ An Israeli attack which killed several prominent members of Lebanon's Hezbollah last week was an attempt by Israel to set "new rules" in the conflict between the two foes, Hezbollah's deputy leader said at a gathering to commemorate those who died. Sheikh Naim Qassem's comments were the first reaction from the group's leadership to the missile attack in the Syrian province of Quneitra near the Israeli border. Among those killed was an Iranian officer and the son of Hezbollah's late military chief. Israel has struck Hezbollah in Syria several times since the conflict there began, hitting weapons deliveries, but the group did not acknowledge these attacks. See also, “Ya’alon: Lebanon, Syria will be held responsible for revenge attacks” (Times of Israel) (http://www.timesofisrael.com/yaalon-lebanon-syria-will-be-held-responsible-for-revenge-attacks/) See also, “A conversation with Bashar al-Assad” (Foreign Affairs) (http://www.foreignaffairs.com/discussions/interviews/syrias-president-speaks) ** Yedioth Ahronoth – January 26, 2015 ------------------------------------------------------------ ** A Great Gift to Iran ------------------------------------------------------------ By Nahum Barnea Over the weekend, my inbox was flooded with questions from American friends: Does he really intend to go? Yes, I replied. Despite all the terrible reactions here? Yes, I replied, despite them. And despite the fact that he knows that his trip is the greatest gift that the Iranian nuclear program could receive? Yes, I replied, despite that. It’s unbelievable, they summed up. The Americans—in the White House, in the political establishment, in the media—have spoken their piece. Netanyahu has found himself in the situation of the proverbial hapless person who ate the rotten fish and took a beating, but has not yet been banished from the city [referring to a Jewish parable about a slave who was given a choice of three punishments for a misdeed and ended up suffering all three—INT]. It is a classic dilemma: If he gives up on making the trip he will be perceived as a loser; if he insists, he will take a beating for the third time. Netanyahu has chosen, at least at this stage, to insist. “I will go anywhere to present the State of Israel’s position,” he declared yesterday at the start of the cabinet meeting. Netanyahu has great faith in his powers of rhetoric. If you’ve given a speech you’ve done something, if you haven’t given a speech you haven’t done anything, that is the motto [allusion to his saying about the left wing that it only believes it has done something if it has removed settlements]. But even he does not believe that a speech, no matter how polished, can force the US president to act against what he views as his country’s vital interests. Particularly since the speeches that Netanyahu is supposed to give there, and his visit in and of itself, are intended to attack, humiliate and diminish the only person that Netanyahu has to persuade. Persuasion by affront? There must be more successful methods to soften the president’s heart. The discomfiture is felt mainly there, in the United States. I will return to that soon. In the meantime, a few words about Netanyahu’s trip and the elections in Israel. I am going in order to save the State of Israel from the Iranian nuclear program, not to steal the elections, Netanyahu says. I believe him, of course. Unfortunately, not everyone believes him. And so, to remove all doubt, Netanyahu should send a letter today to Central Elections Committee Chairman Judge Salim Joubran, and implore him to ban any coverage of his speeches in Washington two weeks before the elections. Zehava Galon submitted a similar request to the judge this week, but with all due respect to Galon, Netanyahu is closer to the matter. Without cameras, Netanyahu should demand from his hosts. Without applause. Without billionaires in the gallery. I have come to persuade, not to be photographed. Back to the entanglement on the American side. At the end of the negotiations, Iran will be a nuclear threshold state. This is bad news for Israel and a stinging failure for our foreign policy, but the die has been cast. This is not because there is a hater of Israel in the White House, but because the majority of Americans refuse to get into a war with Iran at this point in history. The Republicans seize every opportunity to provoke Obama, but they do not want war either. Netanyahu knows that there is no point to his trip, besides its theoretical contribution to the elections in Israel. The decision to cook up the trip behind the administration’s back has not only put Netanyahu in opposition to the president and the secretary of state, but also to the Democrats in both houses of Congress and some of the Republicans. This means several things. Firstly, the chances have weakened for legislation that will intensify the sanctions (even if a majority is obtained, the president will impose a veto and the legislation will be overruled). Secondly, AIPAC has taken a blow. AIPAC achieved great influence in Washington thanks to its reliance on the majority in both parties. It must not lose the Democrats. AIPAC is further discomfited by this affair: So as not to look as though it were meddling in the elections in Israel, its leaders have to invite Netanyahu’s rivals, and first and foremost Herzog, and give him exactly the same stage as Netanyahu receives. Herzog has already been invited (Livni has also been invited, and will apparently give a negative reply). It would be best for [Herzog] to turn down the invitation; his arrival would give false legitimacy to Netanyahu’s visit. But true to form, Herzog is deliberating. Thirdly, the Jews. The overwhelming majority of the Jews are loyal to the Democratic Party and will continue to be loyal to it. They can take in stride a confrontation between the Israeli government and the White House (and enjoy the benefit of the efforts to mediate between them). They will not support an Israel that becomes a tool in the hands of the rival party. Fourthly, and perhaps most seriously: Netanyahu has hurt American pride, the sense of patriotism, the immense respect for the institution of the presidency. It is no wonder that the broadcasters of Fox News, which is pro-Republican, have joined the attack on Netanyahu. The matter truly upsets them. In front of the cameras they prefer to attack him rather than John Boehner, their man in the US House of Representatives, who cooked this stew together with Netanyahu and his American patrons. In Israel it is customary to think that Netanyahu is the boss and the billionaires work for him. This is a mistake. Now, when we know how difficult it is to work for the Netanyahus, we understand how ridiculous this thought is. As far as the relations with America are concerned, Netanyahu works for them and only for them. Perhaps the time has come to Netanyahu turn this part-time job into his full-time job and let others rehabilitate the relationship with the United States. More than a few people in Washington, Jews and non-Jews, friends and lovers of Israel, would accept the change gladly. ** New York Times – January 25, 2015 ------------------------------------------------------------ ** Political Sabotage over a Deal with Iran ------------------------------------------------------------ By Ellie Geranmayeh America and Iran (http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/international/countriesandterritories/iran/index.html?inline=nyt-geo) took a step toward a final nuclear deal on Jan. 18, but they should be making leaps. The negotiators have proposed some creative solutions but major political compromises are sorely needed, and soon. If a framework agreement can’t be reached in March, the talks could become mired in stalemate. Those who oppose any diplomacy between Iran and the West are already seeking to end the process altogether. With time, they will gain further ammunition. Spoilers have been striking from Tehran, Washington and Tel Aviv. Some are trying to limit the ability of President Barack Obama (http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/o/barack_obama/index.html?inline=nyt-per) (or whoever succeeds him) to deliver a reasonable sanctions-relief package to Iran. Others are seeking to corner Iran and force its government into knee-jerk reactions to regional flare-ups. Hard-liners in the United States and Iran see the nuclear negotiations as an opportunity to score points domestically and they are escalating their efforts to scuttle a grand bargain. Although the Obama administration has dedicated itself to multilateral diplomacy with Iran, it has been under constant pressure from Congress. Powerful American legislators, influential lobby groups and the Israeli prime minister have repeatedly called for increased economic pressure on Iran to extract further concessions. Not only does this contradict America’s interest in maintaining the freeze on Iran’s nuclear program (http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/international/countriesandterritories/iran/nuclear_program/index.html?inline=nyt-classifier) , but it also devalues the agreement brokered between Iran and France, Britain, Russia, China, America and Germany. Threats by American lawmakers to impose further sanctions on Iran have already poisoned the spirit of the talks and created doubt among Iranians about whether the United States is able and willing to deliver on its promises. This has provoked hard-liners in Tehran to respond with their own threats that Iran would increase its enrichment capacity should new sanctions pass. During his State of the Union address (http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/subjects/s/state_of_the_union_message_us/index.html?inline=nyt-classifier) , President Obama made clear that he would veto any proposals for additional sanctions on Iran. And although officials in Tehran recognize this as a good faith gesture on the part of Mr. Obama, they also remember that a Congressional bill introduced in late 2013 nearly garnered enough support to withstand a similar veto threat. Iranian officials worry that the Obama administration is constitutionally unable to make a durable and ironclad promise of sanctions relief as part of a final deal. With a Republican majority in both chambers of Congress, and House Speaker John Boehner’s invitation to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/n/benjamin_netanyahu/index.html?inline=nyt-per) to address Congress for a third time, Iran fears that Mr. Obama’s veto won’t be enough. At the same time, Iran is at risk of losing the West’s trust. There is a danger that Iran will damage its newfound reputation as a good faith interlocutor by retaliating for the presumed Israeli attack that killed Hezbollah operatives and an Iranian general in Syria last Sunday. Iran believes the strike was a premeditated Israeli operation targeting a high-level Iranian official. Influential hardliners in Tehran’s security establishment view it as an act of aggression by Israel (http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/international/countriesandterritories/israel/index.html?inline=nyt-geo) and demand a direct response. But any such retaliation, either overtly by Iran or covertly through Hezbollah, would likely prompt Israel’s European and American allies to halt the nuclear negotiations altogether — especially if the retaliation involves attacks against civilians. The Iranian government must decide how openly it wishes to involve itself in the inevitable Hezbollah retaliation while ensuring its tactics do not threaten Iran’s long-term strategic objective of securing a nuclear deal. Iran prudently avoided any entanglement in the Gaza conflict over the summer — and it should continue to keep its distance. If Tehran responds excessively, or if operations are carried out unofficially by Iranian hard-liners, this would escalate the Israeli-Iranian standoff and could derail the nuclear talks completely. March will be an important month for all parties. The results of the Israeli elections could deflate Tel Aviv’s fierce opposition to current negotiations with Iran. For Mr. Netanyahu, blocking any nuclear deal is a personal investment. Some of his political rivals do not necessarily share his fervor on the issue. They view a nuclear deal as less of a threat and place more value on maintaining Israel’s strong alliances with European nations and the United States, all of whom seek a nuclear deal with Iran. If Mr. Netanyahu is defeated by a less hawkish opponent, the Obama administration will have an easier time reassuring Israel about any deal with Iran and there would also be less Israeli pressure on Congress. March is also symbolic for Mr. Rouhani, who is eager to mark the Iranian New Year with a psychological shift on sanctions and engagement with the West. This would be a timely electoral boost for moderates seeking to strengthen their position in the upcoming parliamentary elections. After the negotiations were extended for a second time in November, Mr. Rouhani appealed to the Iranian people, other political factions and Iran’s Supreme Leader for hope and patience. They granted his request but they will not tolerate talks that continue to be extended indefinitely with no tangible sanctions relief in sight. The extension of negotiations has prevented a return to hostile rhetoric between Iran and the West. But tepid progress without any major concessions is a blessing for spoilers, who will use the additional time to sabotage diplomacy. Iran must not allow its short-term ideological pursuits in the region to jeopardize its overarching strategic objective: achieving a comprehensive nuclear deal that brings sanctions relief and provides Iran the option of having a functional relationship with the West. Likewise, the United States must not allow a myopic and obstructionist Congress to derail a deal that is in Washington’s long-term interest and strengthens global security. Ellie Geranmayeh is a policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations. ============================================================ S. 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