EFTA01459049.pdf

The FOMC will take a more hawkish direction in 2016 — but we do not anticipate any significant policy implications from this shift The change of voting members will result in a more hawkish FOMC • The Fed's voting members rotate annually except for several permanent spots (e.g., Chair, Board of 7 # of voting members —2015 -2016 Governors and NY Fed president) 6 5 FOMC becomes • Voting seats are set to shift in a more hawkish more hawkish on average direction in 2016 4 - One less dove (Evans) and a net gain of two 3 ,•—•• more hawkish voters (gain Mester, George and 2 Bullard and lose Lacker) 1 • While this could affect policy at the margin, we do not anticipate any significant policy implications 1111111111=11111= Note: dotted Ines represent romps hawkish r dovish Wore each year. Source Deutsche Bank Research form this shift Composition of FOMC: shifting more hawkish Kocherlakota Evans Brainard Tarullo Rosengrencudley Yellen Williams Fischer Powell Kaplan Mester Bullard George Lockhart Harker Lacker 2015 2016 OA, ,.1.111 :2 r stsacri .7, Bank nTtzuz,lzgarn't:<=e'alr ot.m.- - --- Notes: Faded pictures denote non-voting members. Kochedakola to be replaced by Neel Kashkan (non-voting), not inckaled. Members grouped by level of dovish / hevekishness but 14 vathin each sub-group ordering may not reflect differences in dovuth r hankishneas CONFIDENTIAL — PURSUANT TO FED. R. GRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0119261 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00265445 EFTA01459049